Analysis: Tesla's rivals scrap for thin slices of US EV sales

[RickMachE]

Having owned/driven both a MME AWD ER and a BMW i4 M50 (the i4 has a heat pump), I can say that the heat pump advantage is a bit overstated. Yeah, the heat pump is certainly more efficient when you get into the temp envelope of 30-50 degrees F, but the car's range and battery performance takes a significant hit regardless of the cabin heat source.

The i4 is efficient with the heat pump, but through the coldest months of winter, both cars were ~20% less efficient overall. During the transitional months (Oct-Nov and Feb-Mar) the efficiency loss was probably a *bit* less with the heat pump, but it didn't make the ownership experience any better or worse for either car.

As long as you precondition the car, heat pump v. resistive heat makes zero difference about 80% of the time, and a small difference the rest of the time.

Greg, please try to leave "real world experience" out of it, they get in the way of the narrative...

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[kltye]

Having lived in heat pump heated homes in the mid-Atlantic and Southeastern US, I can assure you that heat pumps are horribly inefficient when the temperature gets close to 32F and pretty much useless below that. Consider: all heat pump systems have “emergency” or “auxiliary “ resistance heat strips in the air handler. Those wouldn’t be there if heat pumps were truly the miracle system they’re pitched to be. They are more cost effective to operate in moderate temperatures.

Modern heat pumps (for homes, I don't know about cars) have a better COP than resistive heat until around 5F - and this is for air-sourced heat pumps! I think a lot of innovation has happened around that recently that a lot of people are unaware of.

Here's one CR article on it; there's lots more out there: https://www.consumerreports.org/hea...s-actually-work-in-cold-climates-a4929629430/

 

[dj_stang]

Modern heat pumps (for homes, I don't know about cars) have a better COP than resistive heat until around 5F - and this is for air-sourced heat pumps! I think a lot of innovation has happened around that recently that a lot of people are unaware of.

Here's one CR article on it; there's lots more out there: https://www.consumerreports.org/hea...s-actually-work-in-cold-climates-a4929629430/

Yeah this is being missed. People are talking about the heat pumps of old that stopped working below freezing.

The only detail is all heat pumps will need to defrost every once in a while with a resistive heater if perpetually in extremely frigid conditions. I’m talking about leaving it on 24/7 outside, which is a valid usecase for homes, but unlikely for cars. Before anyone misconstrues this they are still more efficient even with this in mind, and you will be warm even in -40 because they still have a resistive heater at the end of the day as a failsafe.

 

[Mirak]

Tesla has four significant advantages for most consumers:

• Sticker Price (I won't speculate as to how they've been able to economize, but that obviously plays a key role)
• Software (Even without ACP/AA support, Tesla software is fancier and more robust. For example, the ADAS animations and a plethora of entertainment options)
• Public Charging
• Direct Sales (No more icky car salesmen)

That's a lot of advantages to overcome, even if the M3/MY leave a lot to be desired in terms of build quality and appearance.

Basically, I'm glad I bought my MME, but I can also understand why Tesla is dominating the market.

 

[heisnuts]

Sigh....

CR Tests Show Electric Car Range Can Fall Far Short of Claims Temperature and other driving conditions have an impact; Tesla doesn't meet range claims year round

Note the part of the article heading about Tesla LYING about range year round...

Honestly, I don't even think about range with the Tesla. There are just so many Superchargers in my area and where we take road trips that I know if I run low I can stop for 10 to 20 minutes and be on my way. I have now been to several supercharger locations and never had one problem at any of them or had the stations all full.

My biggest problem is it is sometimes too fast. On one trip we came into the charger at 16% at a 150 kWh charger and wanted to eat at a sit down restaurant there. 40 minutes later we were still at lunch with the car telling us to get back to the charger because we are at 95% and almost full.

Same thing at home. I have never had a charging fault, nor not had the car start to charge at the scheduled time. Even at home the car charges so fast, I have actually lowered the charging rate on the Tesla app to 20A since it still has plenty of time to charge overnight even if I come home with a 30% charge left on the battery.

 

[voxel]

While I prefer the MME over the Tesla I’ve owned I can see Ford being in a bad spot. The MME has a battery that is 18-20 kWH larger than their competitors so thats $3K more at the manufacturing level and associated warranty costs. There are more parts and features plus you need to add dealer profit. At minimum you are $5K more expensive plus with only a $3750 tax credit you are now $9K over the Y.

 

[voxel]

Honestly, I don't even think about range with the Tesla. There are just so many Superchargers in my area and where we take road trips that I know if I run low I can stop for 10 to 20 minutes and be on my way. I have now been to several supercharger locations and never had one problem at any of them or had the stations all full.

My biggest problem is it is sometimes too fast. On one trip we came into the charger at 16% at a 150 kWh charger and wanted to eat at a sit down restaurant there. 40 minutes later we were still at lunch with the car telling us to get back to the charger because we are at 95% and almost full.

Same thing at home. I have never had a charging fault, nor not had the car start to charge at the scheduled time. Even at home the car charges so fast, I have actually lowered the charging rate on the Tesla app to 20A since it still has plenty of time to charge overnight even if I come home with a 30% charge left on the battery.

It’s one thing I kinda miss is the lack of range anxiety with a Tesla because of all the SCs around but at the same time it’s an EV so you still have plan and wait for charges to finish… and when I want to drive and be somewhere 300+ miles away at a specific time… I’d rather drive an ICE car.

 

[ChehRob]

Modern heat pumps (for homes, I don't know about cars) have a better COP than resistive heat until around 5F - and this is for air-sourced heat pumps! I think a lot of innovation has happened around that recently that a lot of people are unaware of.

Here's one CR article on it; there's lots more out there: https://www.consumerreports.org/hea...s-actually-work-in-cold-climates-a4929629430/

My 2010 heat pump worked pretty well down to 20 degrees F. Current models are even better.

 

[AZBill]

GM uses waste heat in conjunction with heat pump to improve efficiency. Resistive heating is only needed if the vehicle is cold soaked.

https://www.sae.org/news/2022/04/gm-heat-pump-system-boosts-ev-range-reduces-charge-times

 

[Mach1E]

These sales numbers have next to NOTHING to do with charge times or what type of heater the car uses.

They dropped the price $15,000 PLUS got access to the $7500 tax credit.

For the X and S they dropped prices $40,000 to $50,000.

McDonalds serves a lot of hamburgers too, and it’s definitely NOT because they make the best burger.

 

[Auto Motive]

Sigh....

CR Tests Show Electric Car Range Can Fall Far Short of Claims Temperature and other driving conditions have an impact; Tesla doesn't meet range claims year round

Note the part of the article heading about Tesla LYING about range year round...

True and false on mileage claims. Our Y AWD long range gets 275 miles at 70mph ac on and 300 miles at 65mph ac on. At 80 like most Tesla drivers it drops significantly. Our GTPE runs 3.0kwh at 70 and 3.5 at 65. Ac on. Nothing in the ev world can match the mme ac in hot weather.

 

[voxel]

True and false on mileage claims. Our Y AWD long range gets 275 miles at 70mph ac on and 300 miles at 65mph ac on. At 80 like most Tesla drivers it drops significantly. Our GTPE runs 3.0kwh at 70 and 3.5 at 65. Ac on. Nothing in the ev world can match the mme ac in hot weather.

I've owned all 4 of the EVs tested by CR and I can tell that they used the 19" tires on the Ioniq 5 AWD version. The 20" Limited AWD definitely does NOT get 254 miles of range at 70mph. I'd guesstimate and say sub-230 miles real world.

Model Y LR and Mach-E AWD ER should be real world 270-280 miles at 70mph. The fact that they "extrapolate" range instead of driving to zero - still makes me question their results.

GT PE has terrible efficiency. I got 50 miles less range with that compared to the regular Premium AWD.

 

[fxo]

View attachment 108511

Here is some data from a test although some data is derived (calculated) from a test that the Electric Viking talked about. Recurrent? (not sure of the spelling), ran this test. But since the bar chart is mixed processes it is kind of useless, and even a little suspect.

Seems like a worthwhile are of focus for drivers, especially for those that take long drives up steep terrain out west, or simply those that live on the frigid plains.

Taken from:

You might also want look at what Norway is doing in testing for winter conditions, it is always done testing under the freezing point.
https://nye.naf.no/elbil/elbil-nytt/ev-range-and-charge-test

Finally, here is some actual range test data, that shows all cars were between 10-30% less range efficient.
https://www.motor.no/aktuelt/motors-store-vintertest-av-rekkevidde-pa-elbiler/217132 (*requires browser that can translate, try Brave or Chrome)...

Best models, came from Tesla, BYD, Porsche...

 

[jeffvick2005]

These sales numbers have next to NOTHING to do with charge times or what type of heater the car uses.

They dropped the price $15,000 PLUS got access to the $7500 tax credit.

For the X and S they dropped prices $40,000 to $50,000.

McDonalds serves a lot of hamburgers too, and it’s definitely NOT because they make the best burger.

This. We can debate car play and heat pumps. But when Tesla has a significant economic advantage (lower prices) and lacks the threat and cost of UAW, they will continue to lead the market.

 

[SWO]

Having owned/driven both a MME AWD ER and a BMW i4 M50 (the i4 has a heat pump), I can say that the heat pump advantage is a bit overstated. Yeah, the heat pump is certainly more efficient when you get into the temp envelope of 30-50 degrees F, but the car's range and battery performance takes a significant hit regardless of the cabin heat source.

The i4 is efficient with the heat pump, but through the coldest months of winter, both cars were ~20% less efficient overall. During the transitional months (Oct-Nov and Feb-Mar) the efficiency loss was probably a *bit* less with the heat pump, but it didn't make the ownership experience any better or worse for either car.

As long as you precondition the car, heat pump v. resistive heat makes zero difference about 80% of the time, and a small difference the rest of the time.

Yep. Folks always point to the Bjorn test (which had flaws - newer car had double pane glass and a bigger battery) to "prove" how much better a heat pump is but it really shows marginal results. He ran the cars for 3 hours and the resistive heater used about 1kw more power (about twice as much taking into account the bigger battery...over a 3hr period). We can all do the math from there.

https://electrek.co/2020/12/03/tesla-model-3-heat-pump-comparison-results/

Heat pumps add a lot more complexity (see all the Teslas last winter which didn't have heat) for marginal range improvement under perfect conditions and worse performance when it's really cold.

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