Elon's Prediction

[Ghost Ryder]

Here are the facts.

Elon Musk is the wealthiest person on the Planet.
Elon Musk is a hard worker.
Elon Musk is both lucky and good at what he does.

Personally, I can't stand him for many things he both says and does but the facts stated really can't be disputed.

To be the richest man on the Planet, I think everyone would agree he is one of the luckiest men on the face of this Earth.

Timing and Luck does not mean that you are not worthy of it or you didn't work for it. It simply means that things fell his way when he needed it most with his high risk endeavors. Things could have easily gone south for him. In fact, Tesla almost brought him down. He was near broke at one time after he became rich. To say luck was not involved is ignoring all of the hard working people that did actually go broke at one point of their life.

You could say the same thing about Michael Jordan. If he had not played basketball as a youth, chances are he would not be worth near the wealth that he has now. One could say (even though IMO he was the greatest player of all time), he was lucky to play the sport that he now is labeled as the greatest.

Imagine if he only played Baseball. You would not know his name.

EVERYONE is lucky once in a while throughout their lifetime. Some more than others.

As other has posted. theres No clear definition of luck. We’re lucky to be born. We’re lucky to not get hit by a drunk driver. We’re lucky to get live in a land of opportunity and not be in a warring nation. Etc. what we are referring to is on a macro level. if You put the avg person in Elon’s place would they have had the same success Or even close to it?

heres a really basic example.
person A randomly pick a NFL to win the Super Bowl and won.
person B spend countless hours researching the team, players, coach etc and pick the same team.
clearly there is some luck to winning the Super Bowl, but person B put in a lot more effort and chances are that if done over many seasons, person B will pick more winners.

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[DennisD]

As other has posted. theres No clear definition of luck. We’re lucky to be born. We’re lucky to not get hit by a drunk driver. We’re lucky to get live in a land of opportunity and not be in a warring nation. Etc. what we are referring to is on a macro level. if You put the avg person in Elon’s place would they have had the same success Or even close to it?

heres a really basic example.
person A randomly pick a NFL to win the Super Bowl and won.
person B spend countless hours researching the team, players, coach etc and pick the same team.
clearly there is some luck to winning the Super Bowl, but person B put in a lot more effort and chances are that if done over many seasons, person B will pick more winners.

This is so silly.

I am not disputing that Elon was/is a mastermind at making money. Yes, the average person could not do what Elon has done. All I am saying is that there surely are a few "Elon's" that would have achieved the same had not "bad" luck struck them.

Timing and luck can either make or break a person's bank account and let them either continue or dissolve.

So for the last time, Elon IS "amazing" currently but he needed a great deal of luck i.e. timing to achieve what he has achieved.

Let me ask you this, if Elon gambles big and loses it all, is he then "not amazing"? Afterall, he is still young and a high risk taker. No one thought GM would ever go bankrupt and they did.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

This is so silly.

I am not disputing that Elon was/is a mastermind at making money. Yes, the average person could not do what Elon has done. All I am saying is that there surely are a few "Elon's" that would have achieved the same had not "bad" luck struck them.

Timing and luck can either make or break a person's bank account and let them either continue or dissolve.

So for the last time, Elon IS "amazing" currently but he needed a great deal of luck i.e. timing to achieve what he has achieved.

Let me ask you this, if Elon gambles big and loses it all, is he then "not amazing"? Afterall, he is still young and a high risk taker. No one thought GM would ever go bankrupt and they did.

What are we arguing about here? That there is some luck involve? Sure. There's luck in everything. Since we can't account for luck, and luck has an equal chance to apply to everyone equally, then there's no point in discussing it.

 

[DennisD]

What are we arguing about here? That there is some luck involve? Sure. There's luck in everything. Since we can't account for luck, and luck has an equal chance to apply to everyone equally, then there's no point in discussing it.

Okay, I will bite once again.

Your suggestion that "luck" has an equal chance applied to everyone is somewhat confusing. Sure, there is luck but some people have bad luck while others have either good luck or no luck if you will. While many people have no control over luck, that does not mean that your success relies on luck many times. (not totally but some) ?

Elon is a prime example of a high risk taker that got very (maybe extremely) lucky in his business dealings thus far. Once again, he is the richest man on the Planet but I wouldn't equate that with him being a genius. He is great at what he does but he has made a lot of stupid mistakes because of his arrogance but once again, his good fortunes have outweighed his bad fortunes. Twitter is a prime example of him making a mistake that he tried to weasel out of but his arrogance got in his way. I am quite sure there are many business people that are a lot smarter but just not as lucky as Elon.

Now let me give you an example.

Lets say you were walking down the street and a piano fell from 10 stories and smashed and killed the person walking just 5 feet in front of you. The man that got smashed with the Piano had bad luck while you had good luck. I guess that is equal? ?

In that example, Elon (figuratively) was the man walking behind the person that was hit and he continues to walk that same path on a daily basis with the chance of getting hit by Pianos that are known to fall in that area and the man that got killed was excelling at his job before the accident and didn't see it coming.

What many people are blind to (at least on this thread), is that Elon is most likely more lucky than brilliant. Don't get me wrong, he is both but he is one lucky SOB IMHO.

 

[dbsb3233]

This discussion of "luck" is a very odd tangent, but it's also one that I often had come up in my career as a professional gambler.

There is no such thing as luck as a future predictor. All it is is a term for having beaten the odds in the past. Someone that won the lottery was lucky to have beaten the odds. Many people confuse that by saying someone "is" lucky, as a predictor for what will happen in the future. That's wrong.

There's a saying that "People make their own luck". What that really means is they're very good at what they do and put themselves in better position to succeed. Some aspects of any business are subject to chance, of course, and factors outside of their control. But someone that's really good thinks to address those factors and minimizes them.

Elon's success speaks for itself.

 

[Ghost Ryder]

Okay, I will bite once again.

Your suggestion that "luck" has an equal chance applied to everyone is somewhat confusing. Sure, there is luck but some people have bad luck while others have either good luck or no luck if you will. While many people have no control over luck, that does not mean that your success relies on luck many times. (not totally but some) ?

Elon is a prime example of a high risk taker that got very (maybe extremely) lucky in his business dealings thus far. Once again, he is the richest man on the Planet but I wouldn't equate that with him being a genius. He is great at what he does but he has made a lot of stupid mistakes because of his arrogance but once again, his good fortunes have outweighed his bad fortunes. Twitter is a prime example of him making a mistake that he tried to weasel out of but his arrogance got in his way. I am quite sure there are many business people that are a lot smarter but just not as lucky as Elon.

Now let me give you an example.

Lets say you were walking down the street and a piano fell from 10 stories and smashed and killed the person walking just 5 feet in front of you. The man that got smashed with the Piano had bad luck while you had good luck. I guess that is equal? ?

In that example, Elon (figuratively) was the man walking behind the person that was hit and he continues to walk that same path on a daily basis with the chance of getting hit by Pianos that are known to fall in that area and the man that got killed was excelling at his job before the accident and didn't see it coming.

What many people are blind to (at least on this thread), is that Elon is most likely more lucky than brilliant. Don't get me wrong, he is both but he is one lucky SOB IMHO.

as far as your example of the piano falling. Both person had equal chance (luck) of that event happening. Hence that’s what I meant. I’m saying that on a macro level. they law of averages will equal out.

the guy that that plays the lotto one time and won is lucky. So is the guy that spent every last Penny of every paycheck on lotto tickets and win is also lucky. But one would conclude that the guy that spent all his money would have a greater chance of winning the lotto than the guy that just bought one ticket. This is what I mean by making your own luck.

as far as Elon is concern and being more lucky than brilliant I’m not sure there’s a way to quantify that. Because you don’t describe what the Luck is referring to. Is he lucky to be born in this era? Is he lucky to not get hit by a drunk driver? Is he lucky to have met Peter thiel? When you say someone is more lucky than good. You’re discounting all the work that went into his success.

We’re all lucky SOB to be living in the US. don’t believe me? Look how many people risk life and limb just to get here with no guarantees.

 

[DennisD]

This discussion of "luck" is a very odd tangent, but it's also one that I often had come up in my career as a professional gambler.

There is no such thing as luck as a future predictor. All it is is a term for having beaten the odds in the past. Someone that won the lottery was lucky to have beaten the odds. Many people confuse that by saying someone "is" lucky, as a predictor for what will happen in the future. That's wrong.

There's a saying that "People make their own luck". What that really means is they're very good at what they do and put themselves in better position to succeed. Some aspects of any business are subject to chance, of course, and factors outside of their control. But someone that's really good thinks to address those factors and minimizes them.

Elon's success speaks for itself.

And Elon did such a good job of predicting what would happen after buying Twitter.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/according-elon-musk-own-math-204413573.html

Yes, his arrogance does speak for itself.

So in using your definition, Elon would have been the only one to predict he would lose 40 Billion Dollars.

 

[dbsb3233]

And Elon did such a good job of predicting what would happen after buying Twitter.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/according-elon-musk-own-math-204413573.html

Yes, his arrogance does speak for itself.

So in using your definition, Elon would have been the only one to predict he would lose 40 Billion Dollars.

Ha! You seem to be confusing wild success on the whole with "perfect at every turn" (which no human is capable of).

If running multiple thriving businesses and parlaying that into becoming the richest man in the world isn't your idea of success, then nothing makes sense.

BTW, Elon even said he didn't buy Twitter for it's financial value, it was about the importance of restoring a platform for free speech. A virtual town square, as he described it.

 

[DevSecOps]

BTW, Elon even said he didn't buy Twitter for it's financial value, it was about the importance of restoring a platform for free speech. A virtual town square, as he described it.

I was just about to say the same.

Also, why do people have such a fascination with Elon's money? Stop being jealous and go make your own. Who cares what X is worth, it's a private company now. Also, according to their CEO they will turn a profit by early 2024.

 

[DennisD]

Ha! You seem to be confusing wild success on the whole with "perfect at every turn" (which no human is capable of).

If running multiple thriving businesses and parlaying that into becoming the richest man in the world isn't your idea of success, then nothing makes sense.

BTW, Elon even said he didn't buy Twitter for it's financial value, it was about the importance of restoring a platform for free speech. A virtual town square, as he described it.

I have one simple question for you.

Why did he try to back out of it then?

 

[dbsb3233]

I have one simple question for you.

Why did he try to back out of it then?

Because he was trying to get a better deal on the price.

The reason for wanting to buy it was still the same.

One of the perks of being wildly successful and worth hundreds of $billions is that you have FU money to do whatever you want with. We all have our passions/missions that we splurge on (if we have the money to do so). He just has WAY more to be able to spend. Most people buy a giant mansion... he bought Twitter.

 

[DennisD]

Because he was trying to get a better deal on the price.

The reason for wanting to buy it was still the same.

One of the perks of being wildly successful and worth hundreds of $billions is that you have FU money to do whatever you want with. We all have our passions/missions that we splurge on (if we have the money to do so). He just has WAY more to be able to spend.

And yet he didn't. Such a brilliant move on his part.

Sounds like a genius to me.

He is an idiot that has had a great deal of luck. What other person would piss away 40 billion dollars of worth in just a short time. THAT is why he was trying to get out of it.

I am not jealous of a man that is an idiot btw.

 

[dbsb3233]

And yet he didn't. Such a brilliant move on his part.

Sounds like a genius to me.

He is an idiot that has had a great deal of luck. What other person would piss away 40 billion dollars of worth in just a short time. THAT is why he was trying to get out of it.

I am not jealous of a man that is an idiot btw.

LOL! It's like you didn't read anything I wrote. ?

 

[DennisD]

LOL! It's like you didn't read anything I wrote. ?

Trust me, I did try to avoid reading it. ?

 

[DevSecOps]

He is an idiot

Calling Musk an idiot = derangement syndrome. You can't have a valid discussion if you're in that mindset.

You don't have to like the guy, but he's no idiot and you don't become the richest man on earth by luck.

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