Elon's Prediction

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Hammered

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I never said that I don't want robots. It's inevitable (Head nod to the folks with the podcast).

The point I'm trying to make (and apparently not doing a good job or others are trying very hard to ignore or something) is that in this world where robots will be doing many of the menial and repetitive tasks that humans used to do, what will be the lot of us humans? I fully appreciate not having to do lots of manual work as much. I like my Roomba and I already admitted to having an appreciation for what it does. And hell, I bought an EV (which is a freaking iPhone on wheels) so I clearly am a fan of technological advancements.

Some folks apparently think that when this happens, people will simply just get other jobs. Ok. Maybe. But I'm asking what are those other jobs and will they pay enough to afford all of the aforementioned robot made stuff? There will only be so many support roles that will be available.

I do believe that us humans are very adaptable and will navigate our way through the troubled waters ahead but it may be unnecessarily painful and difficult. I just think that we are going have to lean in on the creative and artistic side of our nature and not on what we can do with physical labor alone.

In this current environment I am on the side of the workers. The CEOs and management are gonna be ok.

I am not a member of a union and have never been in one. I live in a Right To Work (for Less) state so have never really had an opportunity. But unlike so many of my peers, I don't think unions are outdated and no longer needed. In fact I see the recent uptick in labor trying to organize as a good and necessary response. When (hopefully not if) our brethren in the south of this country realize that they will have way more bargaining power if they organize together instead of needlessly hating on one another, there will be a day of reckoning coming. When we pit various regions of the country against each other it is bound to become a race to the bottom. If labor stands together however, then there is potential hope to lessen the pain of the transition. When we all do better, we all do better, period.

Now back to reading about the inevitable failure of my HVJB or whatever and pining for Bluecruise 1.3...
On the course we're currently on, most of the management team is in jeopardy before the labor is. Ai can rapidly streamline operations, but it can't build a 100 million robots in short order.
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DevSecOps

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Ah yes, the old "because success wasn't achieved everywhere, it's all a failure" trope.
That article should be considered satire.

OMG, Twitter looses 32M users. Yup it went from 350M to 317M and engagement went up 8%. Didn't he say he was gonna get rid of bots???

He brings Tesla and SpaceX to the "verge" or bankruptcy ... verge, oh my!

270 Telsa's crashed on autopilot, yet let's not talk about autopilot engagement leads to a 10x lower likelihood of an accident.

Rockets exploded? As if NASA never had a rocket explode, with people in them no less.

There's some serious Elon derangement syndrome in this world.
 
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Mach1E

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I never said that I don't want robots. It's inevitable (Head nod to the folks with the podcast).

The point I'm trying to make (and apparently not doing a good job or others are trying very hard to ignore or something) is that in this world where robots will be doing many of the menial and repetitive tasks that humans used to do, what will be the lot of us humans? I fully appreciate not having to do lots of manual work as much. I like my Roomba and I already admitted to having an appreciation for what it does. And hell, I bought an EV (which is a freaking iPhone on wheels) so I clearly am a fan of technological advancements.

Some folks apparently think that when this happens, people will simply just get other jobs. Ok. Maybe. But I'm asking what are those other jobs and will they pay enough to afford all of the aforementioned robot made stuff? There will only be so many support roles that will be available.

I do believe that us humans are very adaptable and will navigate our way through the troubled waters ahead but it may be unnecessarily painful and difficult. I just think that we are going have to lean in on the creative and artistic side of our nature and not on what we can do with physical labor alone.

In this current environment I am on the side of the workers. The CEOs and management are gonna be ok.

I am not a member of a union and have never been in one. I live in a Right To Work (for Less) state so have never really had an opportunity. But unlike so many of my peers, I don't think unions are outdated and no longer needed. In fact I see the recent uptick in labor trying to organize as a good and necessary response. When (hopefully not if) our brethren in the south of this country realize that they will have way more bargaining power if they organize together instead of needlessly hating on one another, there will be a day of reckoning coming. When we pit various regions of the country against each other it is bound to become a race to the bottom. If labor stands together however, then there is potential hope to lessen the pain of the transition. When we all do better, we all do better, period.

Now back to reading about the inevitable failure of my HVJB or whatever and pining for Bluecruise 1.3...
Have you watched Wall-E?

We will be fine. Maybe we end up super fat though!
 

DennisD

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That article should be considered satire.

OMG, Twitter looses 32M users. Yup it went from 350M to 327M and engagement went up 8%. Didn't he say he was gonna get rid of bots???

He brings Tesla and SpaceX to the "verge" or bankruptcy ... verge, oh my!

270 Telsa's crashed on autopilot, yet let's not talk about autopilot engagement leads to a 10x lower likelihood of an accident.

Rockets exploded? As if NASA never had a rocket explode, with people in them no less.

There's some serious Elon derangement syndrome in this world.
When all else fails, just use the "derangement syndrome" tactic. ?
 

dbsb3233

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I never said that I don't want robots. It's inevitable (Head nod to the folks with the podcast).

The point I'm trying to make (and apparently not doing a good job or others are trying very hard to ignore or something) is that in this world where robots will be doing many of the menial and repetitive tasks that humans used to do, what will be the lot of us humans? I fully appreciate not having to do lots of manual work as much. I like my Roomba and I already admitted to having an appreciation for what it does. And hell, I bought an EV (which is a freaking iPhone on wheels) so I clearly am a fan of technological advancements.

Some folks apparently think that when this happens, people will simply just get other jobs. Ok. Maybe. But I'm asking what are those other jobs and will they pay enough to afford all of the aforementioned robot made stuff? There will only be so many support roles that will be available.
Put yourself back in 1910. When the buggy whip manufacturers were being put out of business by the automobile, would you have envisioned jobs in the computer industry? In aerospace? In biotech? No. If we knew what the next big invention or advancement would be a few decades later, we'd be billionaires. But that doesn't mean there won't be big inventions and advancements. Mankind will always come up with innovations and advancements. It's our nature.
 


smunro622

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Ironic you replied this to a software engineer, who is likely being paid in stock already. I have been partially paid in stock the whole time I've been a software eng.

The FAANG folks are usually >50% stock for compensation and I'm talking about "career level" engineers -- senior software engineer, staff software engineer -- not CTO.
The FAANG software engineers are all master and doctorate degrees competing in 5-7 rounds of interviews to get there for 6-10 jobs with 5,000 people applying day and night differences. Highly competitive market for those.. FAANG - Facebook Amazon
Ironic you replied this to a software engineer, who is likely being paid in stock already. I have been partially paid in stock the whole time I've been a software eng.

The FAANG folks are usually >50% stock for compensation and I'm talking about "career level" engineers -- senior software engineer, staff software engineer -- not CTO.
The FAANG software engineers are all master and doctorate degrees competing in 5-7 rounds of interviews to get there for 6-10 jobs with 5,000 people applying day and night differences. Highly competitive market for those.. FAANG - Facebook, Apple, Amazon Netflix Google. The top of the top on of employers.
 

smunro622

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I think union bosses are more likely to care about their workers' best interests than CEOs. The demands aren't out of line with what other unions have requested and gotten recently.

Personally, I am rooting for a trickle-up economy. Pay auto workers enough to buy the cars they make.

That would mean Lucid employees would need to be paid pretty well... ?
I would tend to disagree…
See FCA- https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...llantis-corruption-probe-sentence/8164090002/
 

dtbaker61

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ead-to-detroit-three-s-bankruptcies#xj4y7vzkg

I'm sure Elon will be heart broken if his prediction of the Big 3 demise comes true. But, if the results of a strike settlement raises the price of EVs $3,000-$5,000 won't bode well for a product that majority of consumers cannot afford. Cost of EV manufacturing will eventually come down but we aren't seeing yet. Of course, it's hard to differentiate reality and strike rhetoric.
I'll bet that $3k, 100#, numerous plastic 'beauty covers' and hundreds of feet of copper wire could come off the top of the MSRP if there were a true 'base model' that did not have any 'extra smart' sensors, cameras, infotainment, power-seats, power frunks, power hatch lifts, etc.

probably also save several hours of assembly time per vehicle....

UAW demands seem a bit short-sighted to me. If they want to keep their employer healthy, maybe they should focus on fair pay for the job being done, and ask for free re-training to fill the new higher paying jobs that require more education.

As far as CEO pay and bonus goes, the Board's job would be to tie compensation packages to long-term profitability and meeting performance goals with longer vesting periods and delayed payouts, not short term bonuses.
 

Reign of Ravens

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Luck would be walking down the street and finding 1 million dollars while your intent was to go to the grocery store. A person digging for gold, with the intent of finding gold and therefore finds gold did it by devotion, not chance or luck. They might not find gold in that spot, but if they keep looking (devotion) I'm sure they will.
There's a saying that "People make their own luck". What that really means is they're very good at what they do and put themselves in better position to succeed. Some aspects of any business are subject to chance, of course, and factors outside of their control. But someone that's really good thinks to address those factors and minimizes them.
This reminds me of an interesting study that I read about once. In an attempt to determine if luck was an intrinsic factor or something more tangible, people engaged in the study were sorted into two groups: those who thought they were lucky, and those who thought they were unlucky. They then did a few exercises. In the first, people were asked to count the number of times a certain word appeared throughout the newspaper, and were timed. Yet there was a trick: on the second page, hidden away in an advertisement slot, was some phrasing that said "you can stop: this word appears 27 times." As you might expect, people who felt they were lucky were more likely to notice this than people who felt they were unlucky. Some other observations noted that those who felt they were lucky were more likely to make eye contact and smile, which are known (in American culture, at least) to be actions that increase the likelihood of engaging someone in conversation. Social connections, it was posited, are also more likely to lead to more opportunities. So while the study can't exactly prove or disprove luck, it did show that in many cases what people perceive as luck is actually the actions of being observant and social.

Looking at it that way, DevSecOps is also right and not quite right about his example of walking down the street and finding a million dollars. It would be luck (right place, right time) but you still need to have your eyes open and your mind clear to see it. And again, his examples of the people who came into his life are similar. Sure, they might have approached him and said the right things, but that was also a right time, right place sort of thing - they caught him at the right moment (because we all have moments where we would not respond well if approached), and they were in the right place to meet him. Unless they were stalking him and had planned the entire thing elaborately - I guess I've got nothing to say then ?

I don't think any of us talking about luck are trying to say that you just wake up and lie in bed all day, waiting to see if anything will change. It's not to say that effort and skill accounts for zero of success. The reason it gets brought up is because people with a lot of wealth, fame, and/or skill tend to downplay just how much factors beyond their control could have changed things for them. Whether it's to make themselves feel better or to try not looking at a rather frightening part of reality, I'm not really sure.

As for me, I am a highly specialized physician who works with people at some of the worst moments of their lives. I have cared for people who are homeless, people were are or were millionaires (maybe even one billionaire; net worth isn't something I routinely ask about), people who are high-performing professionals, people whose lives had barely even started, and more. I worked my tail off to get to where I am and feel fortunate to be in this position; there were definitely a lot of "right place, right time" moments that led to my being here. And for the lives I am privileged to worth with, it really drives the point home even further to me. Even if you do everything right and take precautions to safeguard your finances or your health, we are all a solid disaster or two away from bankruptcy and homelessness, or death.


A few things there. First, there was much less competition (especially globally) back then. Less flexibility. Career jobs were more common. It's a much more competitive world now with global competition, the gig econony, the internet/information age, remote work, etc.

Second, something else was going on in the late 60s and 70s as well... the societal change of women wanting their own careers (the Women's Lib movement). Suddenly way more people were being added to the supply side of the labor equation. Higher supply vs demand = downward price (wage) pressure. It meant a shift toward more two-income households being common. The market adjusted to that new paradigm. Housing priced in buying power from two incomes instead of just one. The paradigm was no longer the 1950s single earner supporting the household with the other spouse staying home.
A lot of that sounds reasonable, but there are plenty of points that also don't quite match up with what little I know of economics or history. For example, competition should drive down the price of goods and drive up salaries (depending on whether competition is in sales or hiring, although it could be both); I'm also not sure that career jobs were really more common. From what I've read, it was more of a cultural thing. Even "unskilled labor" could be in the same job, or at least with the same company; you'd hear stories of people starting at the bottom and then ending up in management, instead of just getting a degree and jumping into a managerial position like we have now. I have to admit that I just don't know enough to really have a well-reasoned discussion about it much further and to debate any points over why it was different then compared to now.
 

dbsb3233

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For example, competition should drive down the price of goods and drive up salaries (depending on whether competition is in sales or hiring, although it could be both)
It is both. It applies wherever there's a market (supply and demand). There's a market for products, and there's also a market for labor.

When there's strong competition for a product, it commonly does keep pricing down from what it would be from little or no competition (a monopoly). But in order to cut prices that low, business costs also have to stay low or else they'd lose money at those prices. Labor is usually a big part of a business' cost structure, so they need to keep labor costs low to be able to keep prices low.

But at the same time, the labor market may not allow that. If there's a tight supply of labor, a business trying to keep labor costs low won't be able to retain employees. They'll be forced to offer more (which raises their cost structure, which usually gets passed thru into higher prices); or they look to automate more (if they can do so at lower cost than labor); or they lose market share and shrink (or even die).

That's kinda the situation now with the legacy automakers. They face growing competition from Tesla, who has built an impressive competitive cost advantage for themselves. But instead of being able to get their costs down to compete better, they're facing even higher labor costs coming. They're in a tough spot right now and it's not looking good.
 

jbooth

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The FAANG software engineers are all master and doctorate degrees competing in 5-7 rounds of interviews to get there for 6-10 jobs with 5,000 people applying day and night differences. Highly competitive market for those.. FAANG - Facebook, Apple, Amazon Netflix Google. The top of the top on of employers.
Really? What fantasy world do you live in?

I can come up with four folks with BS only who work FAANG from my college days. Of the same folks (eg, friends in college in CS) I know one who has a MS who used to work at FAANG, although he no longer does.

I don't work in FAANG, but I do work in tech and I've done enough time as interviewer and seen FAANG on folks resume's to know they aren't all MS/PhD.
 

DevSecOps

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Really? What fantasy world do you live in?

I can come up with four folks with BS only who work FAANG from my college days. Of the same folks (eg, friends in college in CS) I know one who has a MS who used to work at FAANG, although he no longer does.

I don't work in FAANG, but I do work in tech and I've done enough time as interviewer and seen FAANG on folks resume's to know they aren't all MS/PhD.
I didn't even bother quoting the guy because it's just so wildly incorrect.

Google stopped requiring a 4 year degree a long time ago. They don't even require CS to be a software engineer. Many of the big 5 have moved to a "demonstrated skills" requirement. They look for people who have drive over those who have degrees. In addition to the top 5, BofA, IBM, Tesla and more have all removed college degrees from their requirements. Skills based hiring is the new norm. My degree is in Mechanical Engineering and I worked for the 3rd largest company in the world developing out cloud infrastructure and now lead cyber and infrastructure security teams.
 

Rabidsquirrel22

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The FAANG software engineers are all master and doctorate degrees competing in 5-7 rounds of interviews to get there for 6-10 jobs with 5,000 people applying day and night differences. Highly competitive market for those.. FAANG - Facebook, Apple, Amazon Netflix Google. The top of the top on of employers.
I've been working at a FAANG company for about a year now as a cloud infrastructure architect, and I only have a bachelor's degree. My degree and time at university never even came up, and I'm only a few years out of college. The interviews were entirely focused on technical and behavioral questions (STAR method).

You are correct about all of the rounds of interview though! I've never been through so many to get a job. It took lots of prep work.
 

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ead-to-detroit-three-s-bankruptcies#xj4y7vzkg

I'm sure Elon will be heart broken if his prediction of the Big 3 demise comes true. But, if the results of a strike settlement raises the price of EVs $3,000-$5,000 won't bode well for a product that majority of consumers cannot afford. Cost of EV manufacturing will eventually come down but we aren't seeing yet. Of course, it's hard to differentiate reality and strike rhetoric.
Tesla in not unionized. Elon's big fear is that if the strike is a success then his workers might decide to unionize.
 

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Tesla in not unionized. Elon's big fear is that if the strike is a success then his workers might decide to unionize.
Tesla workers take home more than ford workers. Those that have been with the company since 2018 taking stock options have between 500k and $1mil in stock already. From janitors to assembly line workers. Intelligent / productive employees would make less money under the union. The same thing happened to amazon workers when they bumped pay and killed bonuses and free stock. The schemes always see the productive employees resources diverted to the lower productivity ones and that's not a healthy change. It costs top performers as they go elsewhere where their utility is rewarded. I was an IT contractor that worked on the servers at a large union's HQ. Wow did that open my eyes into the belly of the beast. The place was outfitted to handle hundreds of employees and I never saw more than 7. That's about all I can say about it.
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