Future battery tech vs. current prices

[Glen Boise]

In the Midwest I have to make every mile count unfortunately. NEVI progress is slow and I've already irritated the Indiana "VW Mitigation funds" committee by asking questions on live zoom meetings without being a "committee member". ?

Does the VW committee have a website? Do they report on their progress constructing their chargers? The Indiana NEVI Plan stated VW "diesel-gate" funded DCFChargers were planned for construction in my town. I expect that InDOT will take it's sweet time contracting for Federally funded charger here, when VW will build one in nearly the same location proposed, in the NEVI Plan, for a federally funded site. There is no need, at present, for two sites, nearby each other, given the low number of BEVs in Indiana. In another 5 or 10 years this should change. (Though I did see two other Mach-E's, and several Teslas, at our biggest shopping mall last Saturday.)
It was clear from the beginning of the NEVI Plan process that InDOT was uncomfortable with dealing with what is more an "economic development" program where all the construction sites are outside road rights of way. They are used to dealing with a limited group of government agencies, using a limited number of experienced engineering consultants, using well established procedures and standards developing highway projects. Dealing with contracting for DCFC construction and services with an array of new companies, using strange technologies which are still evolving, is a new experience for them. Besides, there will be plenty of conservative politicians urging they go as slow as possible at funding alternatives to the wealthy oil companies, that contribute to so many conservative politicians' political campaigns.

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[EELinneman]

This is going to make the market of totaled cars very interesting. If they scrap a car due to body damage, but the battery is salvageable, then the cost of that battery is going to be a major revenue item for the wholesalers who buy these. Over time, the prices will drop until the technology moves away from this chemistry and composition.

It does make me wonder if the $10K price increase since last year is tied to the production ramp-up that Ford has announced. It also means our insurance costs are going to be much higher in the near future.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

I don't expect to have to replace the battery. I expect a good 20-30 or even 40 years lifetime on this battery before 20% degradation.

Which is entirely possible for folks who don't drive a ton. People pointing fingers and saying, "oh yeah, well what happens to the battery afterwards? The landfills will be full of them!" seem to forget this.

No every EV battery will be junk in five, even 10 years.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

Wow, the price has gone up like $10k in the past year. Last time I checked the battery was only like $28k.

They could come back down again Lee. Battery generation in GWh/year was 90 in 2022. That is forecast to climb to 177 this year and 346 in 2023 based on planned battery factories right now. Economies of scale. Also, there is a credit for auto makers in the IRA for each battery pack sold (in a vehicle). I think it is $6K/per. That will definitely reduce battery related costs.

Of course there is no guarantee this gets passed on to the consumer but it still creates a better environment for competitive pricing.

 

[Blue highway]

Does this mean that they generally only replace enough modules/cells to get your battery back over the warranty threshold and now back to 90/100%?

yes - if your battery drops below 80% capacity the manufacturer is not going to put an entirely new battery in if the cause is a few cells or modules crapping out.

 

[Shayne]

If the HVB state of health is accurate (was it in the mid 70s?), that is 6% loss in 30,000 miles, not 2 years. So at 100,000 miles you will be at 6x3.3 = 80%, IF it is linear.

But it is likely not linear...

I'd also add that looking up the price of something today, that you might need to buy AFTER 4.7 years (assuming it meets the 70% threshold at 8 years / 100,000 miles, but then you NEED to replace it after that), is somewhat silly. Battery prices will come down in the future.

They say you lose more in the first couple of years then it stabilizes and decrease (tesla history). Mine was at 97.5% soh after a year and a half then had the HVJB/BECM replaced. When I got it back it was at 100% soh again ?‍ . It is now 99% as of today. Not sure if I can count on that anymore but 3.5% total degradation to date?

 

[MacherAWD]

They say you lose more in the first couple of years then it stabilizes and decrease (tesla history). Mine was at 97.5% soh after a year and a half then had the HVJB/BECM replaced. When I got it back it was at 100% soh again ?‍ . It is now 99% as of today. Not sure if I can count on that anymore but 3.5% total degradation to date?

I know this is anecdotal but my 2013 Leaf was showing 7% degradation after 8 years and 85k miles. Those packs had no thermal management and I charged from about 10%-100% every night on L2. This was the 2nd generation pack from Nissan, not the earlier leafs that were degrading quickly and triggering warranty claims

 

[astrorob]

The four hybrids I owned since 2003 have not had any noticeable battery degradation that I could see... I sold one (Prius 1st Gen) because I got an irresistible offer to trade up... the car was fine. The Prius 2d Gen got hit by lightning while parked in front of my house and insurance totaled it because so many control modules were scrambled the mechanics just couldn't make any headway, and the cost to replace all the modules pretty much totaled the car. Prius Plug-In Gen 3 did start to wear out, just over 100+ thousand miles... but not the battery

with respect to the priuses, i *think* the battery technology is not the same as with most EVs. not sure about the prius plug-in but the others had NiMh cells if i'm not mistaken.

added to that toyota has massive guardbands - the usable pack energy is something like 60% of the total pack energy. thus you never see the degradation, but it is happening.

but your point stands - toyota kind of made sure that the car would conk out before the batteries did.

 

[astrorob]

I know this is anecdotal but my 2013 Leaf was showing 7% degradation after 8 years and 85k miles. Those packs had no thermal management and I charged from about 10%-100% every night on L2. This was the 2nd generation pack from Nissan, not the earlier leafs that were degrading quickly and triggering warranty claims

right, i had one of those 2011 leafs and the battery had lost maybe 35-40% by the time i sold it in 2017. ironically i think i killed it with DC fast charging, which was free. ironically it was a remedy for the lawsuits around these short-lived batteries. if i remember right there were some cars in arizona that just completely and immediately lost all pack capacity from sitting on hot asphalt in the summertime.

 

[MacherAWD]

right, i had one of those 2011 leafs and the battery had lost maybe 35-40% by the time i sold it in 2017. ironically i think i killed it with DC fast charging, which was free. ironically it was a remedy for the lawsuits around these short-lived batteries. if i remember right there were some cars in arizona that just completely and immediately lost all pack capacity from sitting on hot asphalt in the summertime.

Yeah the heat really fried those, I remember reading about it. I only used the cademo a few times. Thats the thing with the MME if they degrade we get fixes under warranty, if they hold up, we have strong batteries, we really win either way.

 

[superdave80]

Economies of scale.

That only works if the raw material mining can keep up with the increased production. Otherwise the increased raw material cost may eliminate any manufacturing efficiency gains.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

Which is entirely possible for folks who don't drive a ton. People pointing fingers and saying, "oh yeah, well what happens to the battery afterwards? The landfills will be full of them!" seem to forget this.

No every EV battery will be junk in five, even 10 years.

I drive a ton. Even if I charge, on average, two full cycles every week (>600 miles a week in my experience; or >31,000 miles a year), which I do not, I likely won't see significant degradation for 1,000 weeks or more. That's 20 years.

 

[21st Century Pony]

with respect to the priuses, i *think* the battery technology is not the same as with most EVs. not sure about the prius plug-in but the others had NiMh cells if i'm not mistaken.

added to that toyota has massive guardbands - the usable pack energy is something like 60% of the total pack energy. thus you never see the degradation, but it is happening.

but your point stands - toyota kind of made sure that the car would conk out before the batteries did.

Yeah... these Priuses were in the early hybrid pack so they were NiMh.

 

[devmach-e]

with respect to the priuses, i *think* the battery technology is not the same as with most EVs. not sure about the prius plug-in but the others had NiMh cells if i'm not mistaken.

added to that toyota has massive guardbands - the usable pack energy is something like 60% of the total pack energy. thus you never see the degradation, but it is happening.

but your point stands - toyota kind of made sure that the car would conk out before the batteries did.

The plug-in Prius uses Li-Ion, and uses a much larger range of usable SOC (~15% to ~85%). The EV portion of the pack of my 2012 PiP was between ~26% and 85%. And the HV portion was between 15% and 27%. There was some overlap between the two modes. In a NiMh hybrid, Toyota allows the car to only use a 40% to 80% window. I don't know if Toyota uses a similar window for Li-Ion based regular hybrids these days.

And yeah, the battery pack is likely to outlast the body and ICE (which is over 250K based on personal experience).

 

[21st Century Pony]

The plug-in Prius uses Li-Ion, and uses a much larger range of usable SOC (~15% to ~85%). The EV portion of the pack of my 2012 PiP was between ~26% and 85%. And the HV portion was between 15% and 27%. There was some overlap between the two modes. In a NiMh hybrid, Toyota allows the car to only use a 40% to 80% window. I don't know if Toyota uses a similar window for Li-Ion based regular hybrids these days.

And yeah, the battery pack is likely to outlast the body and ICE (which is over 250K based on personal experience).

I had the 2012 PiP but it's been so long now I dumped my memory files haha.

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