Future battery tech vs. current prices

[devmach-e]

I had the 2012 PiP but it's been so long now I dumped my memory files haha.

My daughter now has the 2012 PiP we had.

And yeah, I have way too much esoteric minutiae clogging my mind...

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[Guss-E 2021]

That only works if the raw material mining can keep up with the increased production. Otherwise the increased raw material cost may eliminate any manufacturing efficiency gains.

This is true. There are a lot of if's.

 

[Guss-E 2021]

I drive a ton. Even if I charge, on average, two full cycles every week (>600 miles a week in my experience; or >31,000 miles a year), which I do not, I likely won't see significant degradation for 1,000 weeks or more. That's 20 years.

And that further supports the idea of a 40 year old EV (basically someone who drives half of what you do). It's all very encouraging.

 

[AllenXS]

Wow, the price has gone up like $10k in the past year. Last time I checked the battery was only like $28k.

Blame the last power up.
It provided increased charging.

 

[kennethjk]

I realize I'm still early in the relationship with the car at 30k miles, but carscanner indicated hvb state of health at 94%. Roughly 3% loss each year if it's accurate. I dcfc 3 or 4 times a year, and charge to 100% about 3 times a month but immediately start driving. Maybe I'm overthinking it. Maybe I need to go back to the stock tires and rims... ?

I have 13k miles in 12 months and SOH on car is 97%. If linear that would be 24% degradation after 104k miles which I guess is ok as it would beat warranty numbers by a little.

That would bring range to around 200 miles after 8 years. Not great but by then I probably would not have the car or have given it to one of my grandkids.

I have fast charged maybe 15 times and usually charge the car to 80% unless going on long trips and then 100%, maybe 10 times.

@mkhuffman , maybe you can chime in on the stats of your car.

 

[RickMachE]

Blame the last power up.
It provided increased charging.

What?

 

[AlpaChino]

What?

I think that was supposed to be a joke.

 

[AllenXS]

What?

Bit cryptic or double play on charging.
I was poking fun at increased charging Ie more dollars for the battery.

 

[Billyk24]

My 2005 Escape Hybrid had the same cells as the Prius, only had a stat
e of charge between 40 and 53% and was designed to hold at 53% as it would burn off excess charge. At 199 000 miles the battery pack started to fail and would lose charge just sitting turned off over night. I got rid of it then.

 

[21st Century Pony]

My 2005 Escape Hybrid had the same cells as the Prius, only had a stat
e of charge between 40 and 53% and was designed to hold at 53% as it would burn off excess charge. At 199 000 miles the battery pack started to fail and would lose charge just sitting turned off over night. I got rid of it then.

That's about the life span of a good gasoline car as well.

 

[devmach-e]

That's about the life span of a good gasoline car as well.

Depends upon the make. I had a 2004 Toyora Sienna hit over 245K miles before I sold it (still running) some 7 years ago. That car is still running as far as I know. We did have to replace the engine and battery in a 2005 Prius at 202K miles, but that was self-inflicted when my daughter ignored the low oil warnings and the engine seized. And then the car spent so much time trying to crank over a seized engine that it stressed the battery pack. For $5800 we replaced the engine (used with 83K miles on it) and battery (new factory fresh) and 80K miles later, that car is still on the road. Though the body itself is ready for retirement (suspension is very bouncy, upholstery is looking worn, etc).

 

[HuntingPudel]

Depends upon the make. I had a 2004 Toyora Sienna hit over 245K miles before I sold it (still running) some 7 years ago. That car is still running as far as I know. We did have to replace the engine and battery in a 2005 Prius at 202K miles, but that was self-inflicted when my daughter ignored the low oil warnings and the engine seized. And then the car spent so much time trying to crank over a seized engine that it stressed the battery pack. For $5800 we replaced the engine (used with 83K miles on it) and battery (new factory fresh) and 80K miles later, that car is still on the road. Though the body itself is ready for retirement (suspension is very bouncy, upholstery is looking worn, etc).

Heh, I purchased my Blazer with a Brand X Million Mile sticker in its window. I put >300K on it myself after that. As much as I loathe Brand X the motor I built has been pretty decent. I would prefer to hate it. ??

 

[astrorob]

I had the 2012 PiP but it's been so long now I dumped my memory files haha.

still driving one. need a cheap car that i can insure my kids on w/o comprehensive. lacks all the modern extra safety stuff and sensors but on the other hand does not upload anything anywhere

 

[mkhuffman]

I have 13k miles in 12 months and SOH on car is 97%. If linear that would be 24% degradation after 104k miles which I guess is ok as it would beat warranty numbers by a little.

That would bring range to around 200 miles after 8 years. Not great but by then I probably would not have the car or have given it to one of my grandkids.

I have fast charged maybe 15 times and usually charge the car to 80% unless going on long trips and then 100%, maybe 10 times.

@mkhuffman , maybe you can chime in on the stats of your car.

I decided to make a new thread on this because there are multiple posts about this in various threads. I did a detailed analysis of the SoH in my MME located here: https://www.macheforum.com/site/thr...e-of-health-how-much-decline-is-normal.26902/

 

[Fremont Kid]

Which is entirely possible for folks who don't drive a ton. People pointing fingers and saying, "oh yeah, well what happens to the battery afterwards? The landfills will be full of them!" seem to forget this.

No every EV battery will be junk in five, even 10 years.

This is where recycling technologies and newer battery chemistries are valuable. I follow LiCycle and I know that Argonne National Laboratories in Lemont, IL has been experimenting with how to recycle LI batteries cost effectively and with low environmental impact.

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