Order Scheduled for Production Date

[ChasingCoral]

You copy the vin to this page and then hit refresh every 5 minutes to be absolutely sure that nothing changed since five minutes earlier. It's taken me most of today to confirm nothing has changed since yesterday.

https://shop.ford.com/vehicleordertracking#/

And unfortunately, that page doesn't reflect the email Ford sent me to give me the build date. Obviously mine is scheduled but this system doesn't show it. There seems to be a disconnect and one system has yet to update the other.

I'll keep hitting refresh until it does -- probably only once or twice a day, though.

 

[ChasingCoral]

So far we have 58 orders in the tracking database (out of 345) that have build dates. Based on that what I see is a start of a geographic pattern but that breaks down fairly quickly:
2020
11/11(?) WA-1
11/20(?) Netherlands-1
11/23 CA-2 & OH-2
11/30 CA-10
12/1(?) CA-1
12/7 MI-3 IA-1 IL-1 TX-1
12/14 AZ-2 FL-3 GA-1 IL-1 MD-2 MN-1 NJ-1 TX-1 WA-3
12/21 AZ-1 CA-2 CO-1 IL-1 MA-1 MD-3 MI-1 MN-2 NC-1 SC-1 TX-1 VA-2 WA-2
2021
2/1(?) PA-1
@makooy has indicated lots of November build dates for Dutch cars (not on our sheet)

Each production week is mostly ER with some SR
Most weeks have both AWD and RWD
Most weeks are a mix of Premiums and FEs, with a few CA Route 1s tossed in
I see no selects so far
Order numbers seem to follow no pattern across these weeks.
Color seems to follow no pattern.

So, either build timing is totally random (highly doubtful) or they are somewhat ordered geographically with a mix of build types for line balancing.

As we really don't know details about shipping other than my source indicating they no longer load on trains at Cuautitlan, they may be batching localities for shipment efficiency. Also, build order may not determine shipping order. However, adding the complexity of re-locating cars in a parking lot to pull them out of order seems unlikely.

 

[makooy]

True. Not all Dutch are on this forum. Only a few are.
cant get my finger on why I see just a few Dutch post here or on Tweakers. Starting to think that the majority of the buyers is not interested in following information or post something about it.

Ford does has an issue with European exhaust rules, they can’t make the average of 95gram/km because the production of the Puma is on hold due to issues with the battery. Ford “might”wants to count some Mach-E’s for the 2020 regulations and put them on EU plates in 2020 but I doubt that as they can’t make it on time.

 

[eastern refugee]

So far we have 58 orders in the tracking database (out of 345) that have build dates. Based on that what I see is a start of a geographic pattern but that breaks down fairly quickly:
2020
11/11(?) WA-1
11/20(?) Netherlands-1
11/23 CA-2 & OH-2
11/30 CA-10
12/1(?) CA-1
12/7 MI-3 IA-1 IL-1 TX-1
12/14 AZ-2 FL-3 GA-1 IL-1 MD-2 MN-1 NJ-1 TX-1 WA-3
12/21 AZ-1 CA-2 CO-1 IL-1 MA-1 MD-3 MI-1 MN-2 NC-1 SC-1 TX-1 VA-2 WA-2
2021
2/1(?) PA-1
@makooy has indicated lots of November build dates for Dutch cars (not on our sheet)

Each production week is mostly ER with some SR
Most weeks have both AWD and RWD
Most weeks are a mix of Premiums and FEs, with a few CA Route 1s tossed in
I see no selects so far
Order numbers seem to follow no pattern across these weeks.
Color seems to follow no pattern.

So, either build timing is totally random (highly doubtful) or they are somewhat ordered geographically with a mix of build types for line balancing.

As we really don't know details about shipping other than my source indicating they no longer load on trains at Cuautitlan, they may be batching localities for shipment efficiency. Also, build order may not determine shipping order. However, adding the complexity of re-locating cars in a parking lot to pull them out of order seems unlikely.

THANKS!!!! I kind of thought geography would have an impact. Do you think all of the cars will be trucked from Mexico to dealers???

this going to be an off the rails SELFISH question. On the 11/30 date which is all CA can you break it down by SoCal/NorCal??

I am finding the delivery aspect fascinating. Not so much what day is my car going to be here but rather the thought pattern into why these cars first.

it appears that Ford is trying to get cars to all parts of the US. This makes sense as SYNC 4 said it would use data from ALL cars to make adjustments for temp, weather etc so that the range that you have is as accurate as possible. Having data from every climate in the US will give first impression data. Various trim
Levels and engine sizes also makes sense as it provides a different kind of specific data.

please keep us informed as much as possible.

do you know of in these deliveries are they mixed between dealership test cars and customer cars???

 

[ChasingCoral]

THANKS!!!! I kind of thought geography would have an impact. Do you think all of the cars will be trucked from Mexico to dealers???

We just don't know yet. Trucking them all the way is rather expensive, and adds logistical hurdles of planning truck routes based on dealer deliveries or at least regional distribution hub deliveries. However, stranger things have happened. COVID-19 rules will play a role here, too.

this going to be an off the rails SELFISH question. On the 11/30 date which is all CA can you break it down by SoCal/NorCal??

Nope. The data are right here:
https://www.macheforum.com/site/threads/submitted-orders-tracking-list-and-stats-enter-yours.924/
They only list states. Feel free to work within your CA Regional Forum to organize more data if you wish.

do you know of in these deliveries are they mixed between dealership test cars and customer cars???

The only data we have are from Forum members, so they are all customer cars. No dealer vehicles are in that database that I know of.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I think that I can drive three years for free:

1. I am counting on the $7500 Federal credit.
2. I have very good credit, so I can get a very low rate or 0% loan.
3. With no state tax, I believe that I can drive away with my Rt. 1 Edition for $49K (slightly discounted).
4. I will take meticulous care of my Mach e - driving less than 12K miles/year.
5. Everyone on this forum will agree that the Mach e will be a hot, in demand vehicle for a long time.
6. After 3 years, I sell my Mach e on the open market for $41.5K (or more) and I can break even on my ride! (Private party used cars sell well here since some people have trouble financing).
7. Using all of my incentives, my home charging system will be purchased and installed for $400.
8. The home charger will be a valuable asset to my home and the cost should be more than recouped when it is time to sell.

You don't need to be a banker or a CPA to see that this makes perfect sense.

Not sure I buy all of the assumptions but I love the logic!

 

[UW2]

I think that I can drive three years for free:

1. I am counting on the $7500 Federal credit.
2. I have very good credit, so I can get a very low rate or 0% loan.
3. With no state tax, I believe that I can drive away with my Rt. 1 Edition for $49K (slightly discounted).
4. I will take meticulous care of my Mach e - driving less than 12K miles/year.
5. Everyone on this forum will agree that the Mach e will be a hot, in demand vehicle for a long time.
6. After 3 years, I sell my Mach e on the open market for $41.5K (or more) and I can break even on my ride! (Private party used cars sell well here since some people have trouble financing).
7. Using all of my incentives, my home charging system will be purchased and installed for $400.
8. The home charger will be a valuable asset to my home and the cost should be more than recouped when it is time to sell.

You don't need to be a banker or a CPA to see that this makes perfect sense.

Item 6, the 3-year resale value is the question. Experts in this forum had posted something like 55% of sale price, if I remember right.

 

[Badger_Prof]

I think that I can drive three years for free:

1. I am counting on the $7500 Federal credit.
2. I have very good credit, so I can get a very low rate or 0% loan.
3. With no state tax, I believe that I can drive away with my Rt. 1 Edition for $49K (slightly discounted).
4. I will take meticulous care of my Mach e - driving less than 12K miles/year.
5. Everyone on this forum will agree that the Mach e will be a hot, in demand vehicle for a long time.
6. After 3 years, I sell my Mach e on the open market for $41.5K (or more) and I can break even on my ride! (Private party used cars sell well here since some people have trouble financing).
7. Using all of my incentives, my home charging system will be purchased and installed for $400.
8. The home charger will be a valuable asset to my home and the cost should be more than recouped when it is time to sell.

You don't need to be a banker or a CPA to see that this makes perfect sense.

Once your car is purchased, it becomes used and its max value at that point in time would be the purchase price minus $7500. Anyone could buy a new one for the full price and take the $7500. Why would anyone want to pay the same net cost for a used car versus a new one? Your plan assumes no depreciation other than the tax credit reduction. Good luck with that. Sure hope I will be able to eat my words (I have two Mach-Es on order) but am anticipating 40-50% depreciation after three years compared to your 0% assumption.

 

[FredT]

this going to be an off the rails SELFISH question. On the 11/30 date which is all CA can you break it down by SoCal/NorCal??

I don't know the exact breakdown, but as the posts were coming in on various threads, I noticed that the 11/30 orders seemed to be fairly evenly split between Northern and Southern California.

 

[UW2]

Interesting, when I plug my VIN in there it says my order is still just "confirmed" (even though I have a build date) and the order # shown (4272) is different from any number on my order I've seen before.

Oh and if I plug my VIN into the window sticker URL it errors out with "the window sticker hasn't been released yet" or some such thing.

I get "System Error, try again later"

 

[bullshark]

I get "System Error, try again later"

Same here

 

[Woeo]

Thanks- I appreciate the advice. I think my point was that I realized my I “NEEDED” the car for the tax benefit in 2020 was highly illogical. As far as I know my taxes in 2021 might be just as high or higher. Who’s to say I might be better off taking the deduction for 2020. I think I was just getting greedy. Did you ever get that counting your chickens thought where you started to feel entitled to something? That’s where I was with my 2020 return. Which is where I think a lot of us were hoping to get a car in literally the last week of 2021. I mean come on-You can’t time that better for the deduction. And I do blame Ford for that a little because they do market the deduction quite heavily. But alas...As Scrooge McDuck will attest.. Gold Fever passes as greed...I can wait a year on the deduction. I will need it then to pay my speeding tickets.

A point of clarification. It is a $7,500 tax credit, not a $7,500 deduction against income.

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

So far we have 58 orders in the tracking database (out of 345) that have build dates. Based on that what I see is a start of a geographic pattern but that breaks down fairly quickly:
2020
11/11(?) WA-1
11/20(?) Netherlands-1
11/23 CA-2 & OH-2
11/30 CA-10
12/1(?) CA-1
12/7 MI-3 IA-1 IL-1 TX-1
12/14 AZ-2 FL-3 GA-1 IL-1 MD-2 MN-1 NJ-1 TX-1 WA-3
12/21 AZ-1 CA-2 CO-1 IL-1 MA-1 MD-3 MI-1 MN-2 NC-1 SC-1 TX-1 VA-2 WA-2
2021
2/1(?) PA-1
@makooy has indicated lots of November build dates for Dutch cars (not on our sheet)

Each production week is mostly ER with some SR
Most weeks have both AWD and RWD
Most weeks are a mix of Premiums and FEs, with a few CA Route 1s tossed in
I see no selects so far
Order numbers seem to follow no pattern across these weeks.
Color seems to follow no pattern.

So, either build timing is totally random (highly doubtful) or they are somewhat ordered geographically with a mix of build types for line balancing.

As we really don't know details about shipping other than my source indicating they no longer load on trains at Cuautitlan, they may be batching localities for shipment efficiency. Also, build order may not determine shipping order. However, adding the complexity of re-locating cars in a parking lot to pull them out of order seems unlikely.

And we know that there are some canadian cars build in november from what we read on the forum.

 

[ChasingCoral]

And we know that there are some canadian cars build in november from what we read on the forum.

Correct. I didn't think of them since none of them are in the database.

 

[hybrid2bev]

I am basing my hypothesis on the $7.5K tax credit going away. So in three years, with no price increase, a new Mach e may still sell for $49K. Therefore, selling my Mach e at $41.5K makes it 15% cheaper than a new one. This is in line with how retail used cars are priced for desirable models. Additionally, buyers with substandard credit who cannot qualify for a new car loan may see my Mach e as an acceptable alternative to an unobtainable new vehicle.

As a former auto credit analyst I can tell you that typically people with subprime credit won’t qualify for a loan with that much over advance. Banks are usually going to consider a three year old vehicle to be worth about 50% of original value of $50k. So asking to finance more than $25k to $30k is going to be difficult for them. Subprime customers typically are not going to have $10-$15k in down payment cash or positive equity trade to get the advance in line with your asking price.

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