Solid State Development

[Blue highway]

This is why buying a Mach-e is a a terrible idea. Lease or ford options!!!! You won’t want your car in 5 years when everything has changed. The batteries the chargers everything. If you haven’t been involved in any type of R/C car or drone racing you might not understand. When a new tech comes out the old is instantly useless and worth penny’s as no one wants a car that will take 45-60 minutes to charge with power limitations at dc fast charger when that new one does it in 2-3 minutes is cheaper lighter and faster. How’s the market for 5 year old gaming rigs? Same thing.

yes... but...
The reason this will not happen is that the big investment is in building battery factories and charging infrastructure. Not the batteries themselves.

The $Billions being spent on battery plants that are not easily retooled to produce solid state batteries lengthens the tech transition time.

In terms of chargers, we are struggling to rollout "fast chargers" that can deliver more than 150KW for any sustained time... Getting most of the supposed charging benefit of solid state batteries means a re-tooling of the charging network.

Lastly in terms of working with "flash in the pan" technology.... I've been building electric drones since 2007. liquid fueled since the late 1990's. The computing tech, has a life of ~1 year, sometimes less. The constant over the last 15 years remains lithium batteries which although incrementally better over time, has remained constant.

I may be wrong, but I expect the lithium battery (LFP in particular) to be here a while.

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[Space Ghost GT]

yes... but...
The reason this will not happen is that the big investment is in building battery factories and charging infrastructure. Not the batteries themselves.

The $Billions being spent on battery plants that are not easily retooled to produce solid state batteries lengthens the tech transition time.

In terms of chargers, we are struggling to rollout "fast chargers" that can deliver more than 150KW for any sustained time... Getting most of the supposed charging benefit of solid state batteries means a re-tooling of the charging network.

Lastly in terms of working with "flash in the pan" technology.... I've been building electric drones since 2007. liquid fueled since the late 1990's. The computing tech, has a life of ~1 year, sometimes less. The constant over the last 15 years remains lithium batteries which although incrementally better over time, has remained constant.

I may be wrong, but I expect the lithium battery (LFP in particular) to be here a while.

To me NMC and LFP batteries are about to be the new NiCd‘s. Soon as there’s a new kid the generational leap will be like the meteor that killed the dinosaurs. If the energy density doubles then we won’t need a ton of fast chargers. Also if charging times drop to a few minutes then there won’t be a need for a ton of fast chargers either. We will see what happens. Not looking good for tesla going all in on NMC and LFP But hey Elon already got his rocket money and that’s all he cares about.

 

[Blue highway]

To me NMC and LFP batteries are about to be the new NiCd‘s. Soon as there’s a new kid the generational leap will be like the meteor that killed the dinosaurs. If the energy density doubles then we won’t need a ton of fast chargers. Also if charging times drop to a few minutes then there won’t be a need for a ton of fast chargers either. We will see what happens. Not looking good for tesla going all in on NMC and LFP But hey Elon already got his rocket money and that’s all he cares about.

maybe.

Will there be a tech that leaps LFP and NMC?... probably. Is solid state that leap? Not in its current form.

Charging times can't drop much if the chargers aren't replaced because they can't sustain even 150KW all day long... or even for most of an hour... they are not cooled adequately

The world will indeed change... just not as fast as many think.

 

[MnSparty38]

I expect it to more likely that people put in refurb batteries in old cars the way people put refurb batteries in an old Tesla, or Pirus today.

the thing that worries me on this is the cost for a new battery in a 2013 Leaf that is getting all the non-ev peeps hyped up.

Fact check: Dealership quoted $30,000 for new hybrid car battery, but that's unusually high

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-volt-battery-electric-car-hybrid/7935230001/

 

[Hardy]

Curious that since many of these factories will be built in Japan, Germany, US, where their materials will be something exes from. I believe many of these solid states still need minerals that are tough to get?

also, do you think already produced cars will eventually be able to be retrofitted with solid state batteries, or will a new car be needed?

Go Green!

 

[MnSparty38]

Go Green!

Go White!

will be going even more green in about 2 months when delivered.

 

[Space Ghost GT]

maybe.

Will there be a tech that leaps LFP and NMC?... probably. Is solid state that leap? Not in its current form.

Charging times can't drop much if the chargers aren't replaced because they can't sustain even 150KW all day long... or even for most of an hour... they are not cooled adequately

The world will indeed change... just not as fast as many think.

What’s getting me excited for solid state, is Toyota is putting them in a hybrid by 2025. They say the idea is a hybrid is a better test bench than an EV as it’s a tougher environment due to the increased duty cycle of a hybrid system. I do see it as a single manufacturer (probably Toyota) bringing solid state to the table and everyone scrambling to catch up. I think it’ll take solid state to get the masses on board. Should be a huge advantage in the EV truck ? market. Allow for practical towing range for trucks. So the future is going to be exciting

 

[jeffdawgfan]

This is why buying a Mach-e is a a terrible idea. Lease or ford options!!!! You won’t want your car in 5 years when everything has changed. The batteries the chargers everything. If you haven’t been involved in any type of R/C car or drone racing you might not understand. When a new tech comes out the old is instantly useless and worth penny’s as no one wants a car that will take 45-60 minutes to charge with power limitations at dc fast charger when that new one does it in 2-3 minutes is cheaper lighter and faster. How’s the market for 5 year old gaming rigs? Same thing.

Since the Mach E has a battery that will probably last between 1000 and 1500 charge cycles....I figure mine will still be going strong in 10 years. I have had mine 18 months now and I figure I have used about 59 charge cycles....20k miles now on vehicle. That's about 3.3 cycles a month. 1000 cycles / 3.3 =303 months / 12 = 25 YEARS!!! The battery should way outlast the car and other components. This is why I bought rather than lease.

 

[Space Ghost GT]

Since the Mach E has a battery that will probably last between 1000 and 1500 charge cycles....I figure mine will still be going strong in 10 years. I have had mine 18 months now and I figure I have used about 59 charge cycles....20k miles now on vehicle. That's about 3.3 cycles a month. 1000 cycles / 3.3 =303 months / 12 = 25 YEARS!!! The battery should way outlast the car and other components. This is why I bought rather than lease.

I agree the battery will outlast the car that’s why I chuckle at all the comments about battery swaps due to wear (or upgrades). Food for thought, will the car outlast the battery? I have FOMO and don’t want to be left behind with new tech. It’s a problem I’ll admit

 

[Toreus]

This is why buying a Mach-e is a a terrible idea. Lease or ford options!!!! You won’t want your car in 5 years when everything has changed. The batteries the chargers everything. If you haven’t been involved in any type of R/C car or drone racing you might not understand. When a new tech comes out the old is instantly useless and worth penny’s as no one wants a car that will take 45-60 minutes to charge with power limitations at dc fast charger when that new one does it in 2-3 minutes is cheaper lighter and faster. How’s the market for 5 year old gaming rigs? Same thing.

I think I’ll be happy with my paid off Mach E in 5 years, charging it at home for free from solar panel produced energy, still never needing to buy gas and always starting my day with a full battery.

The argument that you shouldn’t buy a thing because tomorrow there will be a better thing doesn’t really float for me. That’s the case for almost anything in any industry. At some point you buy in and enjoy the improvement from wherever you bought in last. If you spend your time worrying about what’s new since you bought in, you won’t enjoy the thing you have.

By your logic, ICE cars should have been rendered worthless within 5 years of EV introduction, but clearly that hasn’t happened. Our Mach E’s will still be wonderful cars within 5 years too. ?

 

[Raymondjram]

I do not agree with this 100 percent.

One can look at Leafs as an example but they lacked cooling systems and we're by design more compact that lends to less flexibility in form factor.

If energy density does indeed increase the big limitation will be electronics and the charger circuits ability to adjust to a new curve. Battery pack voltage is determined by the architecture of bus bars in the pack. Although solid state may enable higher voltages it does not mean a less optimal lower voltage retrofit pack is undoable. It all comes down to if there will be a demand to recell old EVs.

We know LFP is coming for the MachE. I am sure we will know about it when the change is made but probably not before. LFP is great for Ford's bottom line, but I am happy to have a build before they nuke the SR packs. Just my opinion.

You are obviously not an Electrical Engineer working with power applications.. I am. And you can ask any automobile manufacturer and they will agree to my point. So the only way you can update older electric cars is by a third party. Ford nor any manufacturer will do that.

 

[mkhuffman]

You are obviously not an Electrical Engineer working with power applications.. I am. And you can ask any automobile manufacturer and they will agree to my point. So the only way you can update older electric cars is by a third party. Ford nor any manufacturer will do that.

I agree. The entire car - frame, cooling system, battery management software, power cables - everything was designed around the HVB. You can't just pop out the old one and put a new battery in that has different operating parameters.

It would be practically designing the power train of the car from scratch to adapt to new battery technology. That is not going to happen. Ever.

It will show up in new cars, not as replacements for old cars. Look at your phone and ask yourself if you can replace the battery with a better one. You can't. Ever.

Buy a new phone. And buy a new car. The MME you own now is the one you will always own, unless you sell it!

 

[mjs020294]

If I still have my Mach-E in 8 years, I think newer battery tech will be available to swap in at a reasonable price.

Zero chance of that happening. The cost of the new batteries and modification required to switch an older car to it would be prohibitive.

 

[dbsb3233]

the best news is that by the time our car batteries are 'tired', the solid state production lines should be up and running, and if replacement battery trays are designed to fit in the same space, should be 'plug and play' replacements with software revision for charge curves....

My guess is that most of our battery packs will be fine until we're ready to move on from the car and buy something else. It's usually gonna be more logical just to sell a 10 year old car to a buyer that's OK with 20% less range than to spend $10-$15k for a battery pack replacement. That could be as much as the car is worth at that point (maybe more).

In fact, since that's probably gonna be the way it works for the vast majority, there may not even be a market for new architecture cells being retrofitted into old packs. Replacement packs may just be limited to the original architecture.

 

[dtbaker61]

My guess is that most of our battery packs will be fine until we're ready to move on from the car and buy something else. It's usually gonna be more logical just to sell a 10 year old car to a buyer that's OK with 20% less range than to spend $10-$15k for a battery pack replacement. That could be as much as the car is worth at that point (maybe more).

In fact, since that's probably gonna be the way it works for the vast majority, there may not even be a market for new architecture cells being retrofitted into old packs. Replacement packs may just be limited to the original architecture.

I am hoping that the EV mfg continue to use the 400-480v architecture for 'a while'.... This would enable higher capacity batteries to be used with existing motors, controllers, chargers, etc. There are lots of reasons to stick with 400v -480v nominal voltage.... especially since most of the DCFC chargers getting installed are designed to pull from 480vAC 3-phase in the US.

The secondary market for 'used' EV batteries will be the solar industry, which also is moving toward standardized DC input to hybrid inverters at the 400-480v level. (a handy multiple of old school 48vDC battery configuration for off-grid)

As residential and small commercial installs start installing customer-side or utility-side batteries to form micro-grid 'catch and release' capacity... used EV batteries will be a perfect fit at low cost perfectly suited for relatively low loads to power a house compared to a car.

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