Reign of Ravens
Well-Known Member
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- Sep 8, 2021
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It's pretty clear, although some of it may be artificially forced. California and some European countries banning the sales of ICE cars in about ten years will have a major impact, but not for the reason people think. People assume ICE cars will dry up around that point but there will still be many in circulation and in use. The average length of use for a car is something like 11 years, isn't it? And many others go longer. But again it influences mind share. If people aren't already spooked by seeing an increasing amount of electric vehicles on the road today, the idea that we're getting close to the end of new sales will further influence what's being purchased.It's not yet clear whether electric will take over the auto industry (today's BEVs are pretty inefficient, lugging giant heavy batteries everywhere they go), but it seems likely that ICEVs will largely die out over the next 50-100 years, and be replaced by something better. The end may come quickly - that last 1% of gas stations - but it will take decades to get to that point.
Some people think that those bans will be extended or not enforced, but it doesn't even matter if California and those other countries stick to their sales ban. What matters is that people now know that there's a defined end to these vehicles. I think EVs could win on their own merit, but this will speed it up.
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