Update on Mach-E launch progress from engineering friends in Mexico

[dbsb3233]

If you are going to lose out on government cash because of the delay speak to Ford and get a discount. Customers in the Netherlands have and are (apparently)

Not that I would turn down a discount if they offered one, of course, but I don't see any justification for it. The car I reserved last Dec (and ordered in July) is a Premium. Even if I were able to upgrade to one of these bonus FEs today, there would be:
(a) No promise or contractual obligation that it be delivered before Jan 1
(b) Not Ford's fault anyway, particularly when we're talking a window of just a couple of weeks where any little blip could push it past Dec 31.

At this point I think it would be unreasonable to even try to demand a "delivery by 2020 or give me a $3000 discount!" guarantee into the deal if I were chosen for one of these extra FEs. I don't have that kind of chutzpah. ?

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[dbsb3233]

I have not seen any official info from Ford with that pessimistic a time table.

Yeah, none of this is official from Ford. Actually that's pretty much true for ALL of our clues about production and delivery dates. Including the Sept 28 date. And the Oct 26 date. It's all just unofficial "insider" reports. So the question is, which one(s) do we believe?

It's also possible that both sources are correct, and don't actually conflict. The new element here is the OKTB part. The production schedule we've been expecting may still be correct. The time it takes to transport from plant to dealer may still be correct. But OKTB was never previously accounted for. We've just been assuming that once the first week's-worth are made, they load right on the train and off they go. But if this OKTB date is accurate, it means the earliest ones collecting on the plant lots for a month before being released.

I hope it's wrong too, but I have no reason to believe it's not at this point.

 

[ClaudeMach-E]

I have not seen any official info from Ford with that pessimistic a time table.

The plan is still to start the assembly run of 2,000 or so dealer demos for NA on Sept 28th or just over a month away. Even at a slow start up rate / learning curve , that should not take more than 3 weeks.

It’s not like this plant has never made vehicles before --- it has been in operation for over 50 years and pushed out millions of vehicles for Ford, including the entire F-Series of trucks at one time. They should have the basics down.

After the demos, the 1,200 or so First Editions for NA is less than a 2 week run, finished by end of Oct. / first week of Nov. If these deliveries get into 2021 --- something very bad happened.

Actually, a good part of my FE has already been made, the battery pack will have left LG Chem in Poland and either on a ship en-route or in Cuautitlan. The BorgWarner Integrated Drive Modules will at least shortly be en-route. The huge software development is done and the memory modules / displays that will contain all this magic are completed. The windshields, side windows and glass roof are done and along with many other sub-assemblies will soon be making the trip to Cuautitlan to wait for their spot on the assembly line.

Getting anxious!

You bet and I'm only waiting mine in March or so.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

But for a launch like this, where you have a LOT riding on it, and customers who have been waiting a YEAR?

Shipping efficiency.

The cost of shipping 1 car 3,000 separate times is exponentially higher than shipping a full railroad autorack or two at time. That extra cost would result in higher delivery costs that we're all paying beyond contracted sales price. It might be faster to ship your car out, but it would also be faster to put them on a pallet and air freight them from the relatively nearby Mexico City airport on FedEx or UPS to your nearest mid-sized airport. That's not going to happen either though.

 

[SnBGC]

For some reason, the full magnitude of this didn't hit me until now. It means no customer is getting delivery before mid-Dec. And even that's if things go well and there's no more delays. Basically a 2-week window for some to arrive in 2020. During the holiday season.

I could easily see some FE deliveries spilling over into 2021 then. Kinda hoping I don't get selected off the waitlist now as $1500 of my state tax credit disappears if delivery doesn't make it in 2020.

I think the schedule anticipates some delays. There always is something that comes up. I believe OKTB 11/23 is more like a drop dead gotta ship no later than thing.

As long as I have the VIN before end of the year then I am going to be fine with the tax credits. The car can arrive later if necessary. Obviously would prefer to take delivery before Dec 31st but I have a back up plan just in case....

 

[dbsb3233]

Shipping efficiency.

The cost of shipping 1 car 3,000 separate times is exponentially higher than shipping a full railroad autorack or two at time. That extra cost would result in higher delivery costs that we're all paying beyond contracted sales price. It might be faster to ship your car out, but it would also be faster to put them on a pallet and air freight them from the relatively nearby Mexico City airport on FedEx or UPS to your nearest mid-sized airport. That's not going to happen either though.

Certainly not 1 automobile at a time, but looks like each autorack train car holds around 20 vehicles. I don't know much about freight train scheduling, but I often see multiple types of train cars hauling a variety of goods. So I'm guessing the entire train doesn't need to be autocars (like 50 cars x 20 MMEs = 1000 at once). Seems like they could contract like 10 autocars each day or something, to match daily production output.

That would be an interesting video to watch (a study of freight train shipping, especially relating to auto plants). Gotta be a lot of logistics involved. Including the return of the autocars to be loaded for the next batch. I would guess they try to schedule routes where they get filled in both directions whenever possible (i.e. a load of MMEs delivered to Michigan, and then a load of F-150s are loaded headed for Mexico, etc).

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Yes the most isolated archipelago and home to the farthest point from the center earth. What I want to know is are you going to take the Saddle road going home from the dealer? I think the highest point on the road is over 6,600 feet above sea level. I didn't see any chargers along the way to Kailua-Kona when we were there last year. I did see some Tesla's and wondered how they got there.

Two ways home from the Hilo dealers (Orchid Isle Ford in this case), one is by the "New Saddle Road" (Really SR 2000 "The Daniel K Inouye Highway" ) that reaches 6,600 ft as you said. From Hilo to our home is 49.2 miles according to google. Up hill to the Maunakea turnoff, then downhill to the Waiki`i/Old Saddle Road turn off. Rolling hills for the last 7 miles to our place. The route is far more scenic along the belt highway and the coast road. Much longer though.

My alternative is to pick the vehicle up at Orchid Isle Ford's Kona shop. 60 miles of rolling hills.

FYI: DC Chargers are available (all 50 kWh at this time). A variety of public level 2 chargers in Hilo (and elsewhere) and the HELCO level 3 charger at their office not far from Orchid Isle. Another level 3 charger is in Waimea (Kamuela), one in Kailua Kona, One in Naalehu, and one on the Hamakua coast near Tex's Drive-In. All run by HELCO and part of Greenlots. All are 50 kWh DC chargers. You're covered charging station wise if you're not in a hurry. And if you're on an island ... what's the hurry? There are no Superchargers in the entire state and none under construction. Two Supercharges have been in the "Planning" phase on Oahu for about 5 years now.

Tesla's arrive at Kawaihae Harbor. New cars are required to be picked up there, no home delivery allowed. It was that way before the pandemic IIRC. No clue why they arrive there, but that's also where the Hawaii island Matson Shipping Lines barge comes in.

Ironically, personal car shipments and dealer cars arriving from the mainland other than Tesla all arrive in Hilo via Young Brothers, even those shipped from Washington or California on Matson. A logistics thing most likely as Hilo Harbor is many times larger than Kawaihae.

Personally, I think there ought to be a greater (or any) level of BEV rentals on Hawaii island. Just don't go sightseeing with side trips and try to circle the island on one charge. Stop and have a Malsada at Tex's (Hamakua) and again at Punalu`u Bakery (Naalehu) and you'll be fine. Or have dinner at Kilauea lodge while charging up your EV. Dinner for two there will set you back well over $200, not including tip. Most expensive L2 charge you'll ever have. Totally worth it.

/travel log off

 

[SnBGC]

Maybe it is just me . . . but I've seen too many conflicting thoughts on this. Can someone on the inside, like @trutolife27 confirm that the OKTB date is really 11/23, and that really means that no cars get shipped until that date? Perhaps I am a skeptic and I don't really understand how this is all going to work, but we have heard about regular production starting in late September, then late October, and even if we go with that October date, does Ford REALLY let literally thousands of cars pile up on a holding lot for a month before letting them ship out?
Sounds kind of crazy to me, but if someone in the know confirms that, then I'll believe it.

Fairly common to do it that way. There was a video series on YouTube about the Mini Cooper production process and they devoted a complete episode for the shipping phase. There was a giant parking lot where these cars were parked as far as the eye could see. They worked around the clock to load and secure the vehicles on a transport ship for delivery overseas. It was amazing to watch.

 

[dbsb3233]

As long as I have the VIN before end of the year then I am going to be fine with the tax credits. The car can arrive later if necessary. Obviously would prefer to take delivery before Dec 31st but I have a back up plan just in case....

Do you have a tax credit that uses VIN assignment as the validity date rather than the delivery date?

I know the $7500 IRS credit is tied to delivery date:

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/plug-in-electric-drive-vehicle-credit-section-30d
"You must have purchased it in or after 2010 and begun driving it in the year in which you claim the credit."

And my state credit (CO) works the same way.

 

[SnBGC]

Do you have a tax credit that uses VIN assignment as the validity date rather than the delivery date?

I know the $7500 IRS credit is tied to delivery date:

https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/individuals/plug-in-electric-drive-vehicle-credit-section-30d
"You must have purchased it in or after 2010 and begun driving it in the year in which you claim the credit."

And my state credit (CO) works the same way.

I have an FIN number so the date the vehicle is placed in service is the purchase date.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

The plan is still to start the assembly run of 2,000 or so dealer demos for NA on Sept 28th or just over a month away. Even at a slow start up rate / learning curve , that should not take more than 3 weeks.

Currently, they're making about 20 cars per shift according to earlier posts. Obviously that will get exponentially greater but I'd personally not expect anywhere near the 1300 per week figure for some time. That can lead to a bit of pessimism.

A lot of the "concern" is due to the lack of real information. We don't know, for example, what the reservation to order conversion rate is. Given that rez numbers were around the 80,000 number (not total reservations though) the conversion rate is important info for most of those without low numbers trying to figure out when they can 'expect' the car. A high conversion rate means later, a lower conversion rate means earlier. Add in the unknowns about EU/UK production ...

I also do not expect Ford to be releasing proprietary information about the conversion rate etc. But it'd be nice to know.

Personally I think I'm between the halfway and 2/3's point. I do not expect to actually see my MME until June 2021 given the EU manufacturing constraints as well as the shipping to Hawaii. Later than that will cause me to rethink the purchase. Others have lease obligations ending and need a time-definite for the vehicle.

Given the worldwide human devastation the pandemic has caused, these really are minor issues, but they are of some concern nonetheless.

 

[trutolife27]

The lots will be full of Mache down at the plant. They will wait tell oktb date. Then ship out. That is how it works with any launch with any manufacturer. I don't know if any of you live by a Vehicle manufacturing plant, but if you do and drive by. Your see vehicles everywhere waiting to ship.

When the silver dome in Pontiac Michigan closed. General motors used the massive parking lot for years to park finished vehicles before they shipped.

Demo model will start making soon, if not a few already. All the info i have passed on is true. Dates still are holding the same.

The funny thing is JD powers is considering Ford for meeting the goal of even sending any Mache out this year with what has happen with covid-19.

Other manufacturing are either saying there will be a big delay or even moving it to another year. I don't think some people understand how lucky we are ford is not more behind then they are.

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ORDER BANK 8/16/20
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Overtime is crazy right now Ford workers are working hard, long hours to get our vehicles to you guys. Here is a Bulletin on it.

 

[trutolife27]

Here is another good read. Lets you know how much covid-19 is hurting places still. General motors Management on the line trying to build units. short that many workers. Toyota has had to cut shifts out. Like I said its amazing how ford has recovered for this compared to the other manufactures.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...-workers-pickup-assembly-line-uaw/5626417002/

 

[dbsb3233]

The lots will be full of Mache down at the plant. They will wait tell oktb date. Then ship out. That is how it works with any launch with any manufacturer. I don't know if any of you live by a Vehicle manufacturing plant, but if you do and drive by. Your see vehicles everywhere waiting to ship.

When the silver dome in Pontiac Michigan closed. General motors used the massive parking lot for years to park finished vehicles before they shipped.

Demo model will start making soon, if not a few already. All the info i have passed on is true. Dates still are holding the same.

Thanks for the update. I think the OKTB timing just threw many people off for delivery expectations, as it's a new factor we hadn't considered. I think many were thinking that once a vehicle rolls off the line, it would probably start transport within days. But at least for the earliest customer units, looks like they'll sit on the lot for a month (Nov 23).

I think we all appreciate how well Ford is doing with production relative to most automakers. The Mach-e is just more frustrating than most since it's such a special new vehicle (revolutionary for Ford), and we've been waiting so long for it to come to fruition. That's usually not the case with most models.

 

[jhalkias]

I think the schedule anticipates some delays. There always is something that comes up. I believe OKTB 11/23 is more like a drop dead gotta ship no later than thing.

As long as I have the VIN before end of the year then I am going to be fine with the tax credits. The car can arrive later if necessary. Obviously would prefer to take delivery before Dec 31st but I have a back up plan just in case....

I am pretty sure that you need to put the vehicle in service by year end for the credit. Not just have a VIN. But then again, I am not a tax attorney. Just what I have understood.

Here is another good read. Lets you know how much covid-19 is hurting places still. General motors Management on the line trying to build units. short that many workers. Toyota has had to cut shifts out. Like I said its amazing how for has recovered for this compared to the other manufactures.

https://www.freep.com/story/money/c...-workers-pickup-assembly-line-uaw/5626417002/

I sure would not want one of those GM vehicles built by the office crew!

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