Update on Mach-E launch progress from engineering friends in Mexico

[SD_Solar]

Well, this will be good news for Tesla.

Hard to follow that logic, demand for Ford's Mustang Mach-E is greater than their current production capability before they can even get Demo cars to dealers to start selling them.

Sponsored

 

[SnBGC]

Ford can infer the conversion rate for EU/UK orders fairly easy. 100%. Doesnt take much to figure out that if North America demand is 3 times what was expected then bank on selling out every single Mach E that the buyers overseas were smart enough to reserve.

 

[JCHLi]

Yeah. Yes, it will. Or at the very least it'll make Tesla look rather competent

There's no good that can come out of selling more cars than you can deliver no matter the model breakdown -- not to this extent anyway, and this early. If they actually have 80,000 confirmed orders (and I have no reason to doubt the number), they're oversubscribed by 60% and counting. The EU/UK order conversion and the GT conversions are yet to happen, it'll get worse absent drastic changes or drastic increases in parts.

And there are very real market and legal reasons they can't ignore the EU market and try to "make it up" next year. And even if they did, they're still oversubscribed by 30,000 and counting.

Ford is in a no-win scenario here. Congratulations. Those suck.

I think it's time that those of us without early reservation numbers stop worrying about when we might see our Mach-E's and start worrying about if we're going to see them.

A real Kobayashi Maru, they have..

 

[KAustin]

A real Kobayashi Maru, they have..

I don't believe in no win scenarios.

 

[SnBGC]

A real Kobayashi Maru, they have..

Well, in this case there is a solution. Procure more batteries. It is early Sept 2020. Not impossible. Not easy either but not impossible.
More batteries....problem solved.

Based on this news, I think Ford probably should have let the extra first Editions Editions be cancelled. The extra range batteries could have made some more standard range models. 3 less First Editions would roughly equal one standard range model. I guess that would have only been 50 or 70 more vehicles though.....drop in the bucket I guess.

 

[KAustin]

Trying to reconcile how markets outside the US would confirm at 100% if they have not converted their orders yet? We have already had many European members say they wouldn't convert because of the extra tax they would face in 2021.

 

[macchiaz-o]

I wonder if "half of 2022 already reserved" means that Ford planned a model year switchover somewhere-mid-2021, and now the actual/expected number of 2021MY orders is going to overflow past that planned switchover date. So, the actual production of 2022MY will be delayed by many months in order to finish out 2021.

This is just a guess, but I bet this happens a lot in auto production. It's not like we consumers know when to expect start of next MY, anyway. Other manufacturers also stagger out their new models.

If this is true, it seems like mostly good news for Ford, though bad that they couldn't negotiate more battery supply to meet demand, and bad news for customers who have to wait even longer than expected. Especially those with later res/order timestamps.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Sorry about the long wait to respond. Sometimes gotta get some sleep lol.

Each day Ford has conference calls with each plant from Dearborn. I can not get into all the details. I like my job and like to keep it.

Today from the conference call here are some (ISSUES) that were addressed.

1. There will not be a C crew added for the year 2021. Has nothing to do with the demand. Has to do with the line can not move fast enough to justify the ability to have a c crew. With suppliers of certain parts not able to meet the demand for 2021.

2. There have been enough reservations turned into orders, that 2021 is sold out. Ford calls it cycle complete. Everything is really at a 2-month delay. Ford can only take so many premium orders before they have to start making the selects, then future gt models.

I'm giving out the info straight from ford. I know people say dealers say this or that, they don't know anything tell ford tells them. Trust me they get the info last.

3. Confirmed I know that ford also stated over 80,000 confirmed orders from dealers already. There are over 16,000 GT (reservations) already in the system also.

4. If and I say if the build phases go right. Then the Mache will be shipped end of November. My friend at the plant says it's beyond stressful down there. This Mache is a big deal for ford.

5. In the meeting also addressed more ford dealers are asking, really begging to be allowed to sell the mache. They did not file the proper paperwork to be put on the list for the training and equipment needed for repairs. Around 3,000 ford dealers, and, 2,014 are a go for mache sales in North America at this time. Could more be added yes, but I don't know how that will be addressed.

6. European orders have to be processed also. In the conference call that was addressed. Ford is trying to get the time table down to tell Ford European when the orders will be arriving. Didn't say when in the meeting. Nothing addressed on Canda sorry guys.

7. Dealers don't want to cancel orders, because they can't just order a mache and have it sent. HAs to be an order complete from a buyer. The average dealer will sell between 4 to 9 Mache in 2021.

8. The orders are not For 2022. Dearborn said in the (Conference) call again. With the actual orders in for 2021 ford knows they can not make enough in 2021 to fill them all. Hince a person said in the call that 2022 is already really at half capacity, with the run times, and supply issues at the plant. The demand is more than ford expected.

I can only tell so much, sorry if it's not enough but somethings can't tell yet.
All I can say is if you want one, better get it ordered. Trying my hardest to pass as much on as I can. If anything was not clear again I'm sorry. The article I used, I know was old but was trying to get something in print to show everyone something to lean on.

Can't record the calls lol. Any more info that I can pass on I will.

That's an awesome information dump. Thanks!

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

A real Kobayashi Maru, they have..

I'm glad you said that. I was thinking about putting a meme in the middle of that. So instead ...

 

[SnBGC]

Trying to reconcile how markets outside the US would confirm at 100% if they have not converted their orders yet? We have already had many European members say they wouldn't convert because of the extra tax they would face in 2021.

100% means that all reservations in UK/EU will sell. Either overseas or here in NA for the surplus orders that exceed the original 50,000 count.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Rob my friend at the plant just told me out of the 80,000 certain amount are for Europe. The amount is unknown.

How can that be I thought Europe has not been confirmed yet?

Well if ford didn't put in a slot in the build then Europe wouldn't be getting any next year, come on bro your smarter than that.

Nothing was said about that from what we heard today, guess ford has more orders then they handle.
Ok, so how can the conference call say confirmed 80,000 then rob? Shit is driving me crazy.

Driving you crazy? try thinking only going to build 20,000 now around 50,000. Ford is not going to say too much more they don't want to find a way and not have cancelled orders.

Well damn, something is going to have to give.

If you want a mache better get it in. slim chances after September 15th you get it next year unless its a gt. Supply and demand man.
Batteries are the hold-up bro hit you back later gotta run

aight later.

Lots of EU orders are already in place. Dutch lease agreements had to be signed early, so the leasing companies could convert their reservations into orders. Canada never had reservations, just pre-orders. I strongly suspect the 80,000 is an estimate that includes EU. Even so, that's 80,000 cars out of 50,000 planned! It's gonna be a busy plant in Cuautitlan.

 

[SD_Solar]

There are over 16,000 GT (reservations) already in the system also.

That is an incredible number of GT reservations already --- who dreamed that market was out there.

 

[dbsb3233]

I'm trying to reconcile in my mind how this meshes with the machdrop campaign to drum up business for extra FEs. Surprised they would do that if they already have 30,000 too many orders than cars.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out. Not really sure what to expect anymore.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

100% means that all reservations in UK/EU will sell. Either overseas or here in NA for the surplus orders that exceed the original 50,000 count.

I think the comment was made a bit after the afternoon post that some of the 80,000 are cars for the EU/UK. But considering they're at 80K now, if they're planning on "only" 30K for the EU and UK, they're probably undercounting by a fair bit, if the USA reservation conversion is any guide. Plus we still have 16,000 GT reservations to go.

Some of the lack of information from Ford makes a bit more sense now.

Batteries might be the major limiting factor but not the only one when the model stikes this type of chord with so many people.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Even so, that's 80,000 cars out of 50,000 planned! It's gonna be a busy plant in Cuautitlan.

30,000 plus batteries, et. al., to obtain. In a seller's market.

Sponsored