Will Tesla still lead the BEV market in 3-5 years?

[Jferrari427]

Tesla has a very significant advantage over everyone else atm. In addition to market leadership, they have vertically integrated into the three areas that matter: lithium, retail, and charging network. These advantages are extremely tough to overcome for legacy OEMs (almost impossible to overcome). So effectively Tesla will be a Toyota on steroids for the next 10+ years from a market dominance, tech and profitability perspective. I used to try not to laugh at Musk when he talked about 20M cars per year. I now pretty much believe him. BTW, I’m not a fan, but you have to give credit when deserved.

I give him credit for thinking big.

I don’t give him credit for tons of false promises.

As more companies develop BEVs Id bet Tesla will be a niche player rather than a massive one.

Way way way too much competition coming in from every company with all styles, shapes, sizes, options, price points than Tesla could ever compete with IMO.

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[llinthicum1]

Globally, Tesla will not lead BEV market. In the U.S., probably yes, but will lose market share.

 

[GreaseMonkey]

I give him credit for thinking big.

I don’t give him credit for tons of false promises.

As more companies develop BEVs Id bet Tesla will be a niche player rather than a massive one.

Way way way too much competition coming in from every company with all styles, shapes, sizes, options, price points than Tesla could ever compete with IMO.

Why niche? They are better in every way. By a lot. It’s not even close. Vehicle development is not that hard once you’ve done it on a couple of generations. They will blow a bunch of legacies out of the water.

 

[DevSecOps]

As very evident by this forum, we as consumers will demand more and more in terms of technology. This has been how we've progressed through PCs and cell phones. Ford's biggest problem right now is it's legacy mentality. It's use of legacy modules, terrible UI choices and the dealership model will continue to cause it problems.

Manufacturers like Tesla and Rivian, that have bucked all traditional trends, are going to keep accelerating at a high pace and if they can bring prices down legacy automakers will be in big trouble imo. Sure there's going to be the older generations who will fight the change just like they did with PCs and cell phones, but they will soon be replaced.

The crazy thing is that Ford has likely torn apart hundreds of Teslas. They know exactly what they are doing and could likely copy it, and do it just as well, but they don't.

 

[Blue highway]

As very evident by this forum, we as consumers will demand more and more in terms of technology. This has been how we've progressed through PCs and cell phones. Ford's biggest problem right now is it's legacy mentality. It's use of legacy modules, terrible UI choices and the dealership model will continue to cause it problems.

Manufacturers like Tesla and Rivian, that have bucked all traditional trends, are going to keep accelerating at a high pace and if they can bring prices down legacy automakers will be in big trouble imo. Sure there's going to be the older generations who will fight the change just like they did with PCs and cell phones, but they will soon be replaced.

The crazy thing is that Ford has likely torn apart hundreds of Teslas. They know exactly what they are doing and could likely copy it, and do it just as well, but they don't.

I wonder if the legacy car companies will change with Gen 2 and Gen 3 cars (within 3-6 years from now)... I think they will. They have the ability to borrow astonishing sums to keep going.

And consider what they are up against...

Rivians and Lucids cost 30-50% too much, and Tesla limits its growth with stupid things like a polarizing figure head and no instrument cluster...

In my view the real threat to the legacy car companies is the Chinese... and Tesla once they get an instrument cluster in a mainstream car

 

[SWO]

go carts? absolutely not... google BYD cars. You will be surprised.

Ah, ok. I was thinking of another chinese brand.

 

[Hammered]

The crazy thing is that Ford has likely torn apart hundreds of Teslas. They know exactly what they are doing and could likely copy it, and do it just as well, but they don't.

Ford has also hired 2 of their executives which are part of their new 'truck' EV platform that will then pave the way for in-house hardware and software dev, that if utilized properly, will provide ford a jump-off point for loads of shared architecture just as tesla has done. They build a new motor, inverter, or anything other than the shell of the vehicle and its rapidly moved into all of the vehicles. Ford or anyone else wanting to remain relevant into the future is going to have to abandon this whole idea of 4-5 yr platform forklifting. New tech features / hardware, great implement it on the next tooling refresh in 6 months and keep the current product competitive.

Sure update the platform / shell at regular intervals, but by all means don't stagnate relevant upgrades that can do good today. That'd greatly eliminate the whole first year bug thing as well. The underlying critical parts were already worked out 18mo prior on the last model. Huge win for everyone.

 

[Mach1E]

I give Tesla a lot of credit for pushing forward the BEV market as a whole, they took it mainstream. Tesla was first to mainstream market, doesn’t mean they’ll be number 1 forever.

As almost all manufacturers now are pushing the BEV trend, do you think Tesla will still be the leader in 3-5 years in terms of sales volume?

IMO I don’t think so. Most manufacturers will have at least 5 BEVs+ (likely in 3-5 years) in their lineup giving consumers a ton of great options. I think Tesla will shrink compared to the mass flood of BEVs coming down the pipeline.

It’ll be interesting to see how this rapidly changing market evolve.

What do you think?

It’s a fair question, but also it really depends on what you mean by “number 1?”

Do I think that Tesla will sell more BEVs in the US market than any other manufacturer in 3-5 years?

Yeah, probably. But the number of competitors is growing significantly. I read that 45 new BEV crossovers will hit the US market in the next 3 years.

That’s a LOT of competition.

So even if they’re #1, they may have a significantly smaller market share of electric vehicles. When you start near 100% market share, there is nowhere to go but down.

So it’ll be a smaller slice of the pie, but it’ll be a bigger pie.

The REAL question is: will the # of Tesla sold per year continue to increase or will they plateau and even decline at some point due to the competition?

 

[Jferrari427]

It’s a fair question, but also it really depends on what you mean by “number 1?”

Do I think that Tesla will sell more BEVs in the US market than any other manufacturer in 3-5 years?

Yeah, probably. But the number of competitors is growing significantly. I read that 45 new BEV crossovers will hit the US market in the next 3 years.

That’s a LOT of competition.

So even if they’re #1, they may have a significantly smaller market share of electric vehicles. When you start near 100% market share, there is nowhere to go but down.

So it’ll be a smaller slice of the pie, but it’ll be a bigger pie.

The REAL question is: will the # of Tesla sold per year continue to increase or will they plateau and even decline at some point due to the competition?

By number 1 - I mean in sales.

There is a TON of competition coming in. IMO Tesla is at their peak market share now, the pendulum is swinging the other way.

I think the answer is Tesla will decline in sales due to competition. They're not big enough to move, build, and create as the other massive manufacturers with billions at their disposal. I think also Tesla realizes this as they are aggressively pricing their cars, and trying to cover as much ground as possible now.

The heat is being turned up.

Competition is a great thing.

Super interesting to see where this market is going.

 

[Hammered]

By number 1 - I mean in sales.

There is a TON of competition coming in. IMO Tesla is at their peak market share now, the pendulum is swinging the other way.

I think the answer is Tesla will decline in sales due to competition. They're not big enough to move, build, and create as the other massive manufacturers with billions at their disposal. I think also Tesla realizes this as they are aggressively pricing their cars, and trying to cover as much ground as possible now.

The heat is being turned up.

Competition is a great thing.

Super interesting to see where this market is going.

None of that matters. Tesla will continue to sell just as fast as they produce vehicles because they can change pricing on the fly as well as offer up any number of instant discounts / gimmicks / software access / etc....

The best thing they can do is to continue to expand their manufacturing capacity as much as possible and absolutely own the market. There's no amount of wishful thinking reading the numbers that will change this. They're opening and expanding their plants, and selling everything they can produce. Every other manufacturer would get on their knees to have this problem of selling everything they make for more than it cost them to make it.

 

[Socalsp3]

the other car makers need to not lose money on ev before tesla will lose their lead

 

[BigMach-E]

I don’t really care. I don’t think the Muskrat cares either. Tesla as a car company isn’t that important to the Muskrat any longer. It’s charging that will likely be the name of the game in this space for Tesla.

 

[Jferrari427]

I don’t really care. I don’t think the Muskrat cares either. Tesla as a car company isn’t that important to the Muskrat any longer. It’s charging that will likely be the name of the game in this space for Tesla.

Why does the Muskrat not care anymore lol

 

[Mach1E]

By number 1 - I mean in sales.

There is a TON of competition coming in. IMO Tesla is at their peak market share now, the pendulum is swinging the other way.

I think the answer is Tesla will decline in sales due to competition. They're not big enough to move, build, and create as the other massive manufacturers with billions at their disposal. I think also Tesla realizes this as they are aggressively pricing their cars, and trying to cover as much ground as possible now.

The heat is being turned up.

Competition is a great thing.

Super interesting to see where this market is going.

So who do you think will pass them?

It won’t be Ford. They’re still early to the game and their sales numbers are already declining.

Toyota and VW? No chance in the next 3 years.

Chrysler? Definitely not.

That leaves GM. And they have a looooong way to go to catch up.

Q1 sales-

Tesla- 155k 1st place
Chevy- 19k 2nd place

That’s a mountain to climb. Especially since the #1 selling Chevy is now discontinued.
https://insideevs.com/news/667516/us-electric-car-sales-2023q1/

 

[BigMach-E]

Why does the Muskrat not care anymore lol

I said it. It’s because charging is the end game. It’s something that Tesla does very well, if they have 90 percent market share of DCFC, and I think in a few years they will, that’s a bigger prize than car manufacturing by a long shot.

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