Nak
Well-Known Member
- First Name
- Mike
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2020
- Threads
- 10
- Messages
- 441
- Reaction score
- 524
- Location
- Camas, Washington
- Vehicles
- Tesla Model Y Performance, Tesla Model 3, 1992 K1500 Blazer
I hope you're right; my career right now is at risk and cheap oil would help. However, I think you might see less efficient refineries shutting their doors permanently. I fear you're wrong on the timeline, but I'll be thrilled if you're right! On the other hand, expensive oil is good for the planet... Damn, I am so conflicted!!! LOL. You gotta laugh these days. Find something to laugh at everybody, seriously.That cycle usually takes years though. What we'll see immediately effected by low oil prices is a severe drop in exploration and NEW drilling. But existing wells keep pumping for a decade or two. Once you've already sunk all that money into getting that well and production facilities in place, it's still usually better to recover SOME of the costs than none of them. So usually the existing wells keep pumping. That's why the history of oil price cycles is often 10-15 years long.
While oil won't stay in the $20's for long, it will likely stay below $60 for many years (which is still fairly low). And gasoline under $3 in most of the US for at least the next 2-3 years, and probably for most of the decade. And in fact, since the gradual shift to BEVs and PHEVs will be taking place this decade, demand is likely to decline thru the decade. 2019 may prove to be the historical peak for worldwide oil demand.
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