Nak

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Jan 5, 2020
Threads
10
Messages
441
Reaction score
524
Location
Camas, Washington
Vehicles
Tesla Model Y Performance, Tesla Model 3, 1992 K1500 Blazer
Country flag
That cycle usually takes years though. What we'll see immediately effected by low oil prices is a severe drop in exploration and NEW drilling. But existing wells keep pumping for a decade or two. Once you've already sunk all that money into getting that well and production facilities in place, it's still usually better to recover SOME of the costs than none of them. So usually the existing wells keep pumping. That's why the history of oil price cycles is often 10-15 years long.

While oil won't stay in the $20's for long, it will likely stay below $60 for many years (which is still fairly low). And gasoline under $3 in most of the US for at least the next 2-3 years, and probably for most of the decade. And in fact, since the gradual shift to BEVs and PHEVs will be taking place this decade, demand is likely to decline thru the decade. 2019 may prove to be the historical peak for worldwide oil demand.
I hope you're right; my career right now is at risk and cheap oil would help. However, I think you might see less efficient refineries shutting their doors permanently. I fear you're wrong on the timeline, but I'll be thrilled if you're right! On the other hand, expensive oil is good for the planet... Damn, I am so conflicted!!! LOL. You gotta laugh these days. Find something to laugh at everybody, seriously.
Sponsored

 

Orangefirefish

Well-Known Member
First Name
SY
Joined
Mar 23, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
268
Reaction score
384
Location
USA
Vehicles
N/A
Country flag
I won't disagree that it's unacceptable, but it is life. Certainly my BMW was worse, along with every other new car I've ever bought. Look at the issues the Taycan is having with fit and finish... At least Tesla fixes things. In fact, mobile service just left my house after fixing my issues. I set up my appointment Monday. Do you think BMW, Audi or Porsche are going to come out to your house and fix your panel alignment issue a couple of days after you call them? No. BMW sure didn't with me. They fought me when I complained about panel alignments that were worse than what I had with my Y.

The Mach-e will have similar issues when new. That's the life of an early adopter. If Ford steps up and matches or exceeds the experience I have with Tesla they'll do well. Personally I think they will. That's why they're targeting the Y; they know they have to change the way they're doing business and they know that Tesla is setting the new standard. I am very much looking forward to having a choice when it comes to a quality EV that I can afford.
Pete, I'd agree that for most people a range delta of 50 miles will not be a deciding factor, despite some in the EV world saying 400 miles will be the 'magic number' to get more onboard.
Here’s some food for thought. 400 miles might not be the magic adoption number for the fact that you can drive 400 miles on a full charge, but more so that one could go 200 miles on half a charge. This would have fairly big road trip implications. With something like a 250kW fast charger, you could stop every 200 or so miles for a quick 10 minute charging stop, since the fast charging would only be going up to 50% due to the large battery, maintaining the high charge rate for longer.
 

silverelan

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 25, 2019
Threads
119
Messages
3,090
Reaction score
4,403
Location
Seattle
Vehicles
2021 Mustang Mach-E GT
Country flag
It's off topic, but a lot of North American production is in danger right now. Natural gas is gonna get clobbered since the cheap prices are a direct result of fracking which is impossible to profitably run at $20/barrel.
 

KT-PNW

Active Member
First Name
Kevin
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
Threads
0
Messages
40
Reaction score
15
Location
Oregon
Vehicles
07’ Mustang, 65’ Mustang, YZF R3
Country flag
Seriously? My buddy in West Linn is paying $.075/kwh, and that's not even using the deal where you pay less at night.
Over in LO it’s $.113/kwh if you’re including the distribution charge. $.063 without.
 

Ken7

Well-Known Member
First Name
Ken
Joined
Mar 3, 2020
Threads
3
Messages
469
Reaction score
364
Location
NY
Vehicles
Tesla Model S, Lexus ES300h
Country flag
Similarly, out here in Pacific Gas and Electric territory, tier 2 rates (which pretty much every SFH gets to each month without much effort) are $0.29. At projected MME efficiency of ~3.3/kW, that’s $0.09/mi. At current gas prices here, about $2.80, although atypically low, that’s about dead even with a moderately efficient vehicle (31mpg).
And that was precisely my point. Every area has a different electric & gas cost, that for many will have an impact on whether their next car is gas or electric.

As far as computing the actual cost of electricity, of course you must add distribution cost to the electric cost. What you actual pay your utility is the true cost.
 


Dkaar

Active Member
First Name
Devin
Joined
Mar 13, 2020
Threads
4
Messages
27
Reaction score
18
Location
MN
Vehicles
2019 F-150
Occupation
Program Manager
Country flag
Here in MN, I have Connexus and they have an off-peak rate of $.0445 per kWh. I have a F-150 with a 5.0 liter and get 17mpg averaged out. At 15k miles per year, I would save $1,547 and another $225 in oil changes. That is almost $150 per month, not to mention never having to stop at a gas station, the cool factor of having an EV with all these new bells and whistles. I am excited but am hoping they make a good lease offer thinking they will hold their value like Tesla.

Ford Mustang Mach-E 2021 Mach-E vs Model Y -- Specs and Styling Compared 2020-04-02_1925
 

Orangefirefish

Well-Known Member
First Name
SY
Joined
Mar 23, 2020
Threads
9
Messages
268
Reaction score
384
Location
USA
Vehicles
N/A
Country flag
Here in MN, I have Connexus and they have an off-peak rate of $.0445 per kWh. I have a F-150 with a 5.0 liter and get 17mpg averaged out. At 15k miles per year, I would save $1,547 and another $225 in oil changes. That is almost $150 per month, not to mention never having to stop at a gas station, the cool factor of having an EV with all these new bells and whistles. I am excited but am hoping they make a good lease offer thinking they will hold their value like Tesla.

Ford Mustang Mach-E 2021 Mach-E vs Model Y -- Specs and Styling Compared 2020-04-02_1925
That’s dirt cheap. If you don’t need the pickup, then sure it’s a no-brainer. F-150s are measured in smiles per gallon though, right? ?
 

timbop

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Jan 3, 2020
Threads
63
Messages
6,740
Reaction score
13,781
Location
New Jersey
Vehicles
Solar powered 2021 MME ER RWD & 2022 Corsair PHEV
Occupation
Software Engineer
Country flag
It's off topic, but a lot of North American production is in danger right now. Natural gas is gonna get clobbered since the cheap prices are a direct result of fracking which is impossible to profitably run at $20/barrel.
Excellent point which hadn't occurred to me. Although I very seriously doubt that we've seen peak oil OR that this situation will last - Russia and Saudi have way too much at stake to keep production this high indefinitely. The situation might last a year, but eventually consolidation/absorption of the smaller players will take place and then the big producers will agree to production decreases to their mutual benefit.
 

Nak

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Jan 5, 2020
Threads
10
Messages
441
Reaction score
524
Location
Camas, Washington
Vehicles
Tesla Model Y Performance, Tesla Model 3, 1992 K1500 Blazer
Country flag
Over in LO it’s $.113/kwh if you’re including the distribution charge. $.063 without.
Huh. I just looked again at my bill to make sure, but we don't have a distribution cost. $12 a month base cost whether you use 0 or infinity. $.0816/kwh after that. I wonder if West Linn is paying distribution cost too? Is distribution cost a fixed monthly amount or dependent on usage? Are you PGE? (Not the PGE in California for everyone not familiar.)

BTW, we're also putting in a solar roof, so our transportation carbon footprint will be a negative number. Plus I just think it's cool that our cars will be powered by the sunlight that hits our roof! :)
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
TimCO
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Threads
54
Messages
9,351
Reaction score
10,884
Location
Colorado, USA
Vehicles
2021 Mustang Mach-E FE, 2023 Bronco Sport OB
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
It's off topic, but a lot of North American production is in danger right now. Natural gas is gonna get clobbered since the cheap prices are a direct result of fracking which is impossible to profitably run at $20/barrel.
NEW production is in huge danger right now, yes. But we've been on a domestic drilling boom for nearly a decade now (thanks to fracking), and all those wells already in production will keep producing. Most of the huge investment has already been spent putting them in. Now you just leave them on and pumping to reap the revenues, even if they're less than hoped (assuming demand is high enough to find buyers).

That means oil will keep flowing, but at a gradually decreasing rate as reservoirs slowly deplete, and little new production occurs to replace it (unless/until the price comes back up).

Although for the next 6 months we could actually see producing wells shut down for pure lack of demand. Auto traffic is way down, and airplane traffic is nearly non-existent right now. And they're running out of places to store it up.
 

eastern refugee

Well-Known Member
First Name
Rich
Joined
Dec 11, 2019
Threads
13
Messages
1,027
Reaction score
1,291
Location
california
Vehicles
2021 Mach E First Edition Grabber Blue.....GOT IT!
Occupation
insurance agent
Country flag
NEW production is in huge danger right now, yes. But we've been on a domestic drilling boom for nearly a decade now (thanks to fracking), and all those wells already in production will keep producing. Most of the huge investment has already been spent putting them in. Now you just leave them on and pumping to reap the revenues, even if they're less than hoped (assuming demand is high enough to find buyers).

That means oil will keep flowing, but at a gradually decreasing rate as reservoirs slowly deplete, and little new production occurs to replace it (unless/until the price comes back up).

Although for the next 6 months we could actually see producing wells shut down for pure lack of demand. Auto traffic is way down, and airplane traffic is nearly non-existent right now. And they're running out of places to store it up.
extremely accurate. This in a strange way may help us as buyers of the MME. Rousch is now offering 7 year loans at ZERO interest. This is going to in for awhile. Some reservations will be cancelled because people are nervous about jobs so that those who have reservations can potentially change to FE.
 

RetiredDP

Well-Known Member
First Name
Steve
Joined
Mar 30, 2020
Threads
5
Messages
564
Reaction score
605
Location
Camino, CA
Vehicles
Focus RS
Occupation
Retired Director of Videography, Editor, Compressionist
Country flag

Maric

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2020
Threads
20
Messages
887
Reaction score
2,219
Location
NorCal
Vehicles
Grabber Blue FE
Occupation
Engineer
Country flag
Using bogus figures for the Mustang...99kw instead of the correct 88kw battery capacity. Other testers have shown, in real-world tests, that the Mach-E gets almost the same mileage. Tesla got worse than the claimed epa figure, Ford got a little better than the claimed mileage. Tesla's gaming the epa figures...
This. Several well known reviewers and consumer car press have proved this.
 

timbop

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Jan 3, 2020
Threads
63
Messages
6,740
Reaction score
13,781
Location
New Jersey
Vehicles
Solar powered 2021 MME ER RWD & 2022 Corsair PHEV
Occupation
Software Engineer
Country flag
Using bogus figures for the Mustang...99kw instead of the correct 88kw battery capacity. Other testers have shown, in real-world tests, that the Mach-E gets almost the same mileage. Tesla got worse than the claimed epa figure, Ford got a little better than the claimed mileage. Tesla's gaming the epa figures...
This. Several well known reviewers and consumer car press have proved this.
Unquestionably true, but this thread was stagnant since last April - long before the actual results came out on both cars.
 

Maric

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jun 10, 2020
Threads
20
Messages
887
Reaction score
2,219
Location
NorCal
Vehicles
Grabber Blue FE
Occupation
Engineer
Country flag
Unquestionably true, but this thread was stagnant since last April - long before the actual results came out on both cars.
I guess some of these threads should be Archived. ?
Sponsored

 
 




Top