Build Back Better Fails

[ChasingCoral]

Mach-E is very likely unaffected until at least the start of 2023. Ford would need to sell about 50,000+ EVs in the USA between October 1, 2021 and June 30, 2022, for the phase out to start before 2023.

They currently have been selling about 7,500 Mach-Es per quarter in the USA.

You'll have a few eTransits being sold as well in 2022 but those will be quite limited for a while. Mid-2022 the Lightnings will start being added in.

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[DennisD]

You need to review how the quota works. It’s not like a switch flips off at 200,000.

I do realize there is a "soft" ending to the quota of numbers sold (i.e. phase out with lower tax rebates for the next two quarters after 200,000 is met), but to my understanding everything stays as it currently stands until that 200,000 number is reached.

Once again, is there anyone that thinks the 200,000 number will be close to mid Summer?

I feel fairly confident that "I will be good to go with the full rebate", but just wanted to see if anyone had a better handle on the number.

 

[mkhuffman]

Manchin’s ‘no’ vote on Build Back Better bill undercuts Biden’s climate agenda (msn.com)

 

[Chuck]

I don't think so. For some, Tesla has become a religion. They can raise their prices like they have because the demand is so far beyond what they can build right now that it is supported. I don't know when the Texas factory opens which will help with US supply. The German plant will help in both Europe and Asia as so many of the Shanghai production is being sent to Europe.

Yes, exactly. Tesla, like Apple, is a lifestyle brand. People will pay a lot more for an equal or lesser product because they think it makes them cool not realizing that "stuff" isn't what makes people cool.

 

[mkhuffman]

"stuff" isn't what makes people cool.

Exactly. Only owning a MME makes you cool. Those Tesla drivers are definitely not cool.

 

[Maquis]

I do realize there is a "soft" ending to the quota of numbers sold (i.e. phase out with lower tax rebates for the next two quarters after 200,000 is met), but to my understanding everything stays as it currently stands until that 200,000 number is reached.

Once again, is there anyone that thinks the 200,000 number will be close to mid Summer?

I feel fairly confident that "I will be good to go with the full rebate", but just wanted to see if anyone had a better handle on the number.

The phase out doesn't begin the day the 200,000th vehicle is sold. Buyers still get the full credit until the end of the following quarter.

 

[ARK]

I sure hope so. I ordered my MME around the middle of November. It is the Premium AWD model. They said the delivery date would be around June/July.

Question- Is there anyone on this forum that thinks Ford could sell more than 200,000 before my delivery date?

If they hit 200,000 between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022, the $7,500 lasts until September 30, 2022 before stepping down.

If they hit 200,000 between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022, the $7,500 lasts until December 31, 2022 before stepping down.

If they hit 200,000 between October 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022, the $7,500 lasts until March 31, 2023 before stepping down.

You’d only be in trouble if they hit 200,000 between January 1, 2022 and March 31, 2022, and took delivery after July 1, 2022, but no one thinks thats happening because of where sales stand now and when other Ford EV models are launching.

 

[DennisD]

If they hit 200,000 between April 1, 2022 and June 30, 2022, the $7,500 lasts until September 30, 2022 before stepping down.

If they hit 200,000 between July 1, 2022 and September 30, 2022, the $7,500 lasts until December 31, 2022 before stepping down.

If they hit 200,000 between October 1, 2022 and December 31, 2022, the $7,500 lasts until March 31, 2023 before stepping down.

You’d only be in trouble if they hit 200,000 between January 1, 2022 and March 31, 2022, and took delivery after July 1, 2022, but no one thinks thats happening because of where sales stand now and when other Ford EV models are launching.

Thanks so much for the information!!

That is kind of what I thought but just wanted to get a second opinion on that.

Thanks again!!

 

[J-orange]

Yes, exactly. Tesla, like Apple, is a lifestyle brand. People will pay a lot more for an equal or lesser product because they think it makes them cool not realizing that "stuff" isn't what makes people cool.

There are a lot of people who equate electric car=Tesla just like facial tissue=Kleenex or copier=Xerox. I am sure they will feel emotionally 'safe' in their decision going with Tesla. That is their prerogative. I do not hate on Tesla. I am just not thinking it is the bee's knees and worthy of the fawning over.

 

[Tangible]

While I personally benefited from the rebate, it doesn’t make much sense from a policy standpoint. People obviously don’t need to be incentivized to buy vehicles that they’re willing to queue up for many months in advance.

But if we do want to keep the rebate, it should be locked in when the car is ordered, not when it’s delivered. That’s when the decision that supposedly requires incentivizing is made, and it would end the guessing game about sales caps.

 

[DennisD]

While I personally benefited from the rebate, it doesn’t make much sense from a policy standpoint. People obviously don’t need to be incentivized to buy vehicles that they’re willing to queue up for many months in advance.

But if we do want to keep the rebate, it should be locked in when the car is ordered, not when it’s delivered. That’s when the decision that supposedly requires incentivizing is made, and it would end the guessing game about sales caps.

That would be awesome if they could but I wouldn't hold my breath on that any time soon.

I'm not sure why there is a cap of 200,000 per Company on this. One would think that if a company was on the forefront of getting "greener", they wouldn't be penalized for being first?

The main reason I chose the MME over Tesla was the ride quality and the Tax Credit. If the Tax Credit were to expire before my MME is scheduled for delivery (mid Summer), I will re-evaluate my purchase. It really does leave things up in the air.

 

[Mach1E]

While I personally benefited from the rebate, it doesn’t make much sense from a policy standpoint. People obviously don’t need to be incentivized to buy vehicles that they’re willing to queue up for many months in advance.

But if we do want to keep the rebate, it should be locked in when the car is ordered, not when it’s delivered. That’s when the decision that supposedly requires incentivizing is made, and it would end the guessing game about sales caps.

To be fair, price is likely one of the reasons people are willing to “queue up many months in advance.”

That and the fact that you have to order and wait for most cars these days means that a waiting list isn’t exactly “special” right now. But this is a temporary supply issue with everything.

These laws were set in motion way before a pandemic messed everything up.

 

[dw0095]

I can say with 100% confidence that I purchased the MME over the Model Y solely for the tax credit availability. That's almost 15% discount off MSRP if you have at least 7500 in tax liability.

I financed using Ford Options for the additional discount and will see what the resale value is in 2.5 years since I have a buyout price on paper.

 

[yngwenli]

I'm not sure why there is a cap of 200,000 per Company on this. One would think that if a company was on the forefront of getting "greener", they wouldn't be penalized for being first?

I think the idea was in a world with no EVs, the $7.5k was the incentive for companies (Tesla) to invest in new technology and the government is subsidizing the higher cost of said new technology when the car is sold.

After 200k is sold, it's assumed your costs are down a bit now and people won't need to overpay for the EV tech now.

Another benefit for the company is you have a headstart with EVs and have an advantage compared to people who didn't build it yet so you start building your tech moat from other companies to catch up (like Tesla has lower number of components/chips/etc detailed often in Sandy Munro's videos helping with weight, hoses, a general mess under that MME frunk).

Tesla has done this wonderfully with the best tech, best charging infrastructure, etc...GM, not so much. GM used their credits for mostly a compliance vehicle and didn't invest in revamping everything to electric till recently and are now playing catch up.

For other makers who still have the credit, it's like Tesla 10 years ago, getting the $7.5k credit means your car buyers can overpay for older tech, but help the manufacturer overprice their vehicles since it cost a lot more R&D to make a new EV/platform.

I'm glad the BBB EV part failed honestly (it all did, but I didn't like the EV portion). I don't think Tesla needs the credit to sell their cars. There is still a long wait without the tax credit so I hope they don't expand the 200k.

 

[dmasteR]

Yes, exactly. Tesla, like Apple, is a lifestyle brand. People will pay a lot more for an equal or lesser product because they think it makes them cool not realizing that "stuff" isn't what makes people cool.

This is just dumb. Apple makes plenty of products that are very competitive in the market. iPhone 13 Pro Max is a gap better than the Samsung Galaxy S21 in multiple aspects like battery life, GPU / CPU power, etc and trade blows every where else.

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