Elon's Prediction

[mkhuffman]

I don’t have the answers.

I think you know the answer. And so does @kennethjk. It is individual freedom.

The individual should be free to work for a company and not be forced to join a union. But they can choose to join if they want. That is freedom.

The individual should be free to negotiate their own compensation, and their compensation should be based on performance and what the employer is willing to pay. It should not be based on what someone else negotiates for them, unless they voluntarily choose it. That is freedom.

Individuals should be free to start their own businesses and pay their employee whatever they want to pay them without any restrictions. And, of course, individuals should be free to leave that business if they are not happy with how they are treated. And individuals should be free to fire anyone they want if they are not happy with the performance of the individual or the company.

The answer is freedom. It isn't perfect, but it is better than any top down, collective control over a group of people who are forced to do things they don't want to do.

People sometimes don't like the results of freedom, but it is better than the alternative. Much better.

If you don't like your life, change it. If you don't like your pay, get a new job. If your skills are not in demand, develop new skills. There is no limit to what you can do if you are free. The only limits are those you impose on yourself.

But if you let jealousy of what others have consume you, and you enable others to use their power to take freedom from others because you are jealous of what they have, the result will be bad for everyone. Maybe not right away, but when one individual's freedom is taken away, everyone is poorer because of it.

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[ArthurDOB]

Some of these replies are just so strange. Thinking that assembly line workers, basically robots, should be paid at in increase equal to a CEO is crazy. A C Suite Exec has the burden of performance and money on their shoulders 24/7. We have to prove that we can innovate and manage, whatever size, team below us while making profits for the company. We get rewarded, financially for doing so. An assembly line worker has none of that. Do you think these companies just run themselves?

What do you care what Farley makes? It's not about one man. Do I think a $33/hr assembly line worker should get a 40% raise plus one entire free day of pay, no I don't because in Michigan, for example, the average hourly wage is $16.32. What makes an assembly line worker worth $85 in their total compensation package? That's just bonkers.

If you want to stay competitive you have to pay competitively, not stupidly. Citing their earnings as leverage in this argument is just an example of how there's a general lack of knowledge as to how companies are run.

Robots?! You're likening them to robots?! Wow. That is a pretty atrocious attitude toward assembly line workers and workers in general. I hope for your sake that the workers who work at your company never see this. I'd be beyond angry at essentially being called a replaceable cog in a machine. This attitude is what angers people about corporate America.

These Auto workers are on a two-tiered pay system while doing the same work. It should be a no-brainer to end that practice. They also deserve to share in the benefits their hard work has brought the company, just the way the C Suite Execs have handsomely rewarded themselves.

We all do better when we all do better.

 

[Mirak]

It used to be that skilled blue collar labor at an auto manufacturer was one of the few things that you could do without advanced education that could guarantee a middle-class lifestyle. Unrelated to whether the current negotiation is fair or not, I think it's sad that there's no real path to a middle class lifestyle for so many people now.

All of your points are very well put. I’m not sure we would agree on solutions, but I do think we would agree on what we’d like to see “in a perfect world.” But this particular point really stood out to me, because I think this is very true. And it has resulted in a mismatch in expectations that gets us to where we are in these negotiations.

I just don’t think that in this increasingly (1) global and (2) automated economy, it is realistic for factory worker to be a “white picket fence” type of job. I agree this is sad. Just like a third generation family business closing down, or selling grandma’s house, or any other number of things is sad. Time marches on. Things change. It is sad.

 

[ArthurDOB]

What gets me is the “huge profits” argument for wage increases. Unless a corporation has an explicit profit sharing plan, generally speaking employees are not “entitled” to share in profits. Especially in public companies - the profits, in the form of dividends, go to the shareholders, who are the ones who own the company.

Bottom line is profits belong to the shareholders, not the employees.

And therein lies the problem.

 

[DevSecOps]

I'd be beyond angry at essentially being called a replaceable cog in a machine.

Like the 1 million robots who have already replaced human workers in the auto industry? You act as if this isn't happening or happened.

https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/one-million-robots-work-in-car-industry-worldwide-new-record

If robots are cheaper than robotic labor, people will be replaced with machines. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out. As I said previously, no CEO wants to replace a human with a robot, but if they demand unreasonable pay then they will be replaced or the labor will be forced outside the USA.

AI will likely replace my job one day. Facts are facts. I'm not going to sugar coat reality for the sake of political correctness.

 

[tuminatr]

Like the 1 million robots who have already replaced human workers in the auto industry? You act as if this isn't happening or happened.

https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/one-million-robots-work-in-car-industry-worldwide-new-record

If robots are cheaper than robotic labor, people will be replaced with machines. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out. As I said previously, no CEO wants to replace a human with a robot, but if they demand unreasonable pay then they will be replaced or the labor will be forced outside the USA.

AI will likely replace my job one day. Facts are facts. I'm not going to sugar coat reality for the sake of political correctness.

And that is not unique to the auto industry. Fast food, retailers are replacing humans with apps and self checkout.

It's an interesting world.

 

[Scooby24]

And that is not unique to the auto industry. Fast food, retailers are replacing humans with apps and self checkout.

It's an interesting world.

The CEOs will also have their day. AI will be able to identify functional and market strategies, operational improvements based on data, culture opportunities and pretty much everything else minus the social and relationship building. CEOs will become functionally obsolete and become glorified influencers. Their pay should reflect their contributions at that point.

 

[Vulnox]

And that is not unique to the auto industry. Fast food, retailers are replacing humans with apps and self checkout.

It's an interesting world.

All the more reason to unionize. I am not saying to do so to force companies to keep paying for labor if it can be done equally well or better through automation, but we are approaching a tipping point, even if 20+ years out, where automation and some levels of AI may take more and more jobs. If we sit around fighting each other over stuff like this, we will find ourselves all out of a job with no alternatives.

It's interesting to see some on here openly discussing how their jobs might be replaced by AI, but at the same time how unions asking for labor is only going to make it more likely they are replaced by robots, yet someone that knows their job may be replaced by AI is unwilling to tell their company they will take a 50% pay cut to ensure they stay cheaper than an AI replacement and the maintenance that will have to go into that world. Really says something when someone wants to dictate what others should accept but won't take less themselves.

 

[superdave80]

I'd be beyond angry at essentially being called a replaceable cog in a machine.

Well, that's essentially what a lot of assembly line workers are. In fact, some unions strike BECAUSE they don't want to be replaced by a robot (even though it would be cheaper/more efficient for the company to use the robot).

 

[superdave80]

All the more reason to unionize. I am not saying to do so to force companies to keep paying for labor if it can be done equally well or better through automation,

What, exactly, do you think the purpose of the union would be then?

 

[Just Lurking]

The pay inequality is not due to the "rich" getting paid more, it's due to investment and the return on it.

This is definitely a factor. Wealth concentration tends to increase due to investment returns.

When the "working class" is choosing to buy frivolous stuff because of YOLO, then they can never improve. Society has to change its mentality. But it's really hard when a new $1000 iPhone comes out every year and you just have to have it to impress your Instagram friends. People don't save for the future and complain that the "man" is keeping them down.

This is where you veer off into areas that are not supported by data, IMHO. Of course there are plenty of examples where people could be making smarter decisions with their money, where people could scrimp and save and invest smartly and build a nest egg for themselves.

But from a societal perspective, the reason for inequality is not poor individual decisions, it's being born into poor and less educated family, a lack of role models, a lack of educational opportunities, a lack of economic opportunities for people who are average or below-average in terms of talent and skills, and so on.

 

[Timelessblur]

“More comfortable wages.” ?

That’s how you describe demanding a 40% pay raise along with working a 32 hour week (but getting paid for 40 hrs)?

The demands are absurd and will just result in future plant closures.

Just when we convince manufacturers to move jobs back in the US, the unions do their best to make them regret that decision.

Do know the 40% is over multiple years and they are demanding the items they gave up years ago to be return. Excutive and upper management got back everything they gave up. Do not forget they took a paycut years ago and want that back as well.

 

[Vulnox]

What, exactly, do you think the purpose of the union would be then?

Union in a more... human centric approach I guess, less in an individual industry approach. My intent being to stop arguing over what UAW is getting paid and start having the conversation on how we, as workers in general in whatever industry, ensure we aren't living in slum cities because 50% of jobs have been replaced by AI.

I don't think it's as near future as some do, as most of the existing AI is hilarious bad and its abilities are oversold significantly. But it will advance rapidly, which is why I said 20 years or so. But if we wait until 30% of positions are replaced to start having the conversation, it's only going to get messy.

Not sure what the answer to that issue is, to be clear, it's a large problem that will need to be attacked from a lot of sides.

 

[tuminatr]

The CEOs will also have their day. AI will be able to identify functional and market strategies, operational improvements based on data, culture opportunities and pretty much everything else minus the social and relationship building. CEOs will become functionally obsolete and become glorified influencers. Their pay should reflect their contributions at that point.

Your probably right, however that's a separate discussion.

I would have more respect for the union if the argument they were making is their workers are underpaid in the industry. They should use facts to show that what they are asking for will get UAW back to what they should be paid. They should also show that the per hour increase won't affect the companies bottom line that much. I can get behind the fact that many workers in the USA are underpaid.

 

[theganyo]

We're nibbling around the edges of industrial age solutions while AI and software eat the world. A radical take: The way we look at human labor and productivity is tired and doesn't scale with the fully AI and robots powered economy we're moving toward. To honor human freedom and meaning - and allow a free market economy, we should eliminate all minimum wages and most social programs, replacing them with UBI and universal healthcare. Doing this would offer the most actual freedom to most people to navigate their lives and negotiate their time with others (for work, volunteerism, art, etc).

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