Faulty math article on EV v ICE

[deadduck]

They're using bad numbers to make a bad point that's not true. Most people who have electric cars recharge at home where it is far cheaper than gas.

Not most people in California, at least if they don't have solar. It's cheaper but it's not far cheaper and no way does it pay for itself compared to any decent hybrid.

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[Mirak]

I've already said that my EVSE install amortized over 11 years adds a whopping half cent to my per-mile cost. Some manufacturers, like GM, provide a dual-voltage EVSE and will pay for the install of a 50A outlet, so the cost for an EVSE can be $0. If I include the extra registration fee ($125 or something like that) that I have to pay because I have an EV, it might add another half cent. Still cheaper than the Highlander Hybrid to drive.

Yeah, my cost in Kansas to home charge is only about 8 cents a kWh, there is no EV fee that I’m aware of, and my house came with a 240v outlet installed, and I use the mobile charger, and I only DCFC maybe once per month. So I think last time I did the math my cost per mile was something like 25% of the cost to fuel a Ford Edge.

But I assume this study is using broad averages for registration fees, charger costs, utility and DCFC rates, so their numbers might actually make sense in a highly muddled, averaged kinda way.

This kinda study would be a lot more interesting if it looked state by state. They’d still be using a bunch of averages but we could at least see some interesting differences.

 

[RWG]

I am some what surprised at the continuous commotion around this subject. The answers are simple math.

Example: In my town my electrical costs are about $.15 per kw. So that means a full 100kw charge is about $15. We average about 3 miles per kw, so that means my range is about 300 miles and energy cost per mile is about $.05 per mile. ( Approximate because things vary a bit with ambient temps and driving behaviour.)

With at theoretical 20 MPG ICE vehicle and $3.50 per gallon for gas. 300 miles range would use 15 gallons of gas at a cost of $52.50 which equates to $.175 fuel cost per mile.

So all of this means the cost of driving our EV vs a theoretical 20 mpg ICE vehicle is approximately 3 times cheaper, energy costs per mile.

In our case, we almost never get charged on the road, at significantly higher kw costs. Our charging routine is charge in the garage at night at $.15kw. If I choose to use off peak rates I can get the costs down to about $.10per KW, but I haven't done that because it would cost at least $1k to $2k to install a new off meter and then there is a monthly charge for the 2nd meter.

Conclusion: It is definitively cheaper per mile with the EV; unless compared to an ICE vehicle that gets over 50 to 60 mpg. ( With gas costs in the $3.50 per gallon cost range.)

We cannot calculate the "true cost" of ownership until we trade the vehicle etc. At this point, it does not look great considering the drop in new vehicle prices and the drop in trade in values. In addition, considering the wild variances in pricing over the last 3 years makes things difficult to financially equate.

However, in our case, we did not buy an EV to save on cost per mile, etc. Buying a Ford "first Rodeo" EV came with risks and perhaps unexpected costs, we knew that and time will tell. We bought this vehicle because we could and wanted to.

I would suggest the purchasing an EV may not be the right solution for many. However, it works for us, but it is not for everyone.

 

[A2Z]

Our utility has an off-peak rate plan and our super off-peak rate for electricity from 12:00am-5:00am is about 62% lower than our peak rate. So, I have set our cars to charge between midnight and 5:00. In the interest of trying to be fair to the authors of the study claiming that charging an EV is as or more expensive than fueling an ICE, I visited every gas station in the area and asked whether they would be prepared to provide a 62% discount for fueling up between midnight and 5:00, but all of them said no and a few were not even particularly polite about it.

Of course, even if they had said yes, I would still need to drive out in the middle of the night to fuel up as opposed to simply setting my EV to begin charging at midnight.

 

[devmach-e]

Not most people in California, at least if they don't have solar. It's cheaper but it's not far cheaper and no way does it pay for itself compared to any decent hybrid.

Define decent hybrid. Are we doing an apples to apples comparison here? I.e comparing the MME to something equivalent in size/utility, like a RAV4 or Highlander Hybrid? A Bolt EV to a Prius? Gas is $4.50 a gallon around here. A Prius that gets 50 MPG costs 9 cents a mile to operate. The Bolt, with electricity at roughly 26 cents per kWh for off-peak times, and EPA rated 3.9 miles per kWh is about 7.3 cents a mile. The Mach-E at 3 miles per kWh would be roughly 9.5 cents a mile. So not hugely more expensive. But if I compare the Mach-E to the RAV4 Hybrid, a more legit comparison, using the overall EPA rating of 40 MPG, comes out at 11.25 cents a mile. Or if I use my Highlander Hybrid (a little bit larger), which gets 26 MPG overall on a good day, we're talking over 17 cents a mile. It saves me about $1600 a year in fuel costs driving the MME instead of the Highlander.

The 26 cents a kWh I'm quoting is without solar. Just plain ~26 cents a kWh for off-peak charging on PG&E's EV2-A rate tariff.

 

[ctenidae]

Operating cost != fueling costs != cost of ownership.

The shitty math study uses ICE fueling costs and EV operating costs.

Instead of arguing about very particular elements of the least important things (welcome to the tinternets), we ought to be bitching about the anti-EV agenda and the lying liars who promote it using bad math and faulty science to prey on gullible minds to support their own needs to the significant and appallingly obvious detriment of everybody. Even (especially) themselves.

I recommend "The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity" by Carlo Cipolla. It's a quicker read than this thread.

Now, where's my frunk button?

 

[JeffGo]

I sent a nasty email to the author when I read this. Either shoddy work, or a shill for big oil. My "fuel" cost is right around $0.04 per mile and I pay extra for green upcharges (about $0.13/kWh). My Audi A4 fuel cost was around $0.17/mile (premium) - before the huge gas hike in WA state. And no more oil changes. I don't use fast chargers but with an EA subscription, it's around $0.31/kWh).

 

[Mirak]

I think the issue with the study is the nationwide averages. There is a LOT of variability state-to-state, and even county-to-county, when it comes to the variables like gas prices, electricity prices, road taxes/fees, and home charging hardware costs. There is also a huge difference person-to-person when it comes to L2 hardware and DCFC utilization.

But I still think it is fair to include those home charging hardware costs and road taxes/fees into the computations. You can't just shunt those off into "cost of ownership" and have a fair apples-to-apples comparison. You're just taking some of your fueling costs and putting them into another bucket.

 

[DevSecOps]

You can't just shunt those off into "cost of ownership" and have a fair apples-to-apples comparison

I know this topic is about fuel price comparison, but those same people who want to push these items into cost of ownership probably don't actually want to compare cost of ownership.

If we take overall investment into an EV, deducting whatever lower cost/mi for fuel there's no way that we could make up the difference in "cost of ownership" where the EV is likely to be costlier.

My Audi SQ5, a performance ICE SUV, loaded with leather, carbon fiber inserts, HUD, ventilated seats, much better handling/ride etc cost less than my MME GTPE. A Ford Mustang GT Premium Fastback has a starting MSRP $20k less than a MME GTPE.

So, either be fair and include road taxes, cost of EVSEs etc in the price of "fuel" or compare the total cost of ownership. Same goes for the $30k they forked out on solar then attempting to claim that they charge "for free". They want to have their cake and eat it too - or they're just too hell bent on an agenda.

 

[Mirak]

I know this topic is about fuel price comparison, but those same people who want to push these items into cost of ownership probably don't actually want to compare cost of ownership.

If we take overall investment into an EV, deducting whatever lower cost/mi for fuel there's no way that we could make up the difference in "cost of ownership" where the EV is likely to be costlier.

My Audi SQ5, a performance ICE SUV, loaded with leather, carbon fiber inserts, HUD, ventilated seats, much better handling/ride etc cost less than my MME GTPE. A Ford Mustang GT Premium Fastback has a starting MSRP $20k less than a MME GTPE.

So, either be fair and include road taxes, cost of EVSEs etc in the price of "fuel" or compare the total cost of ownership. Same goes for the $30k they forked out on solar then attempting to claim that they charge "for free". They want to have their cake and eat it too - or they're just too hell bent on an agenda.

100% this.

 

[VegasWeezy]

I know this topic is about fuel price comparison, but those same people who want to push these items into cost of ownership probably don't actually want to compare cost of ownership.

If we take overall investment into an EV, deducting whatever lower cost/mi for fuel there's no way that we could make up the difference in "cost of ownership" where the EV is likely to be costlier.

My Audi SQ5, a performance ICE SUV, loaded with leather, carbon fiber inserts, HUD, ventilated seats, much better handling/ride etc cost less than my MME GTPE. A Ford Mustang GT Premium Fastback has a starting MSRP $20k less than a MME GTPE.

So, either be fair and include road taxes, cost of EVSEs etc in the price of "fuel" or compare the total cost of ownership. Same goes for the $30k they forked out on solar then attempting to claim that they charge "for free". They want to have their cake and eat it too - or they're just too hell bent on an agenda.

I agree it's fair to include the cost of the EVSE (and installation of a new plug and or wiring if applicable) into the comparison of operational costs (i.e. fueling). As well as whatever taxes or registration surcharges there may be in your area.

But you lose me on your cost of ownership comparison. The article that led to this thread is strictly about charging costs versus gas fueling costs. Just comparing random vehicle costs of ownership is meaningless unless you are debating between purchasing two specific vehicles and want to know which will be cheaper in the long run (i.e. your Mustang GT Premium Fastback vs MME GTPE example). Because I could just as easily make a ridiculous comparison that goes the other way (i.e. my Premium ER MME was $56,200 or I could have purchased a Porsche Macan GTS starting at $86,800).

 

[DevSecOps]

But you lose me on your cost of ownership comparison. The article that led to this thread is strictly about charging costs versus gas fueling costs. Just comparing random vehicle costs of ownership is meaningless unless you are debating between purchasing two specific vehicles and want to know which will be cheaper in the long run (i.e. your Mustang GT Premium Fastback vs MME GTPE example). Because I could just as easily make a ridiculous comparison that goes the other way (i.e. my Premium ER MME was $56,200 or I could have purchased a Porsche Macan GTS starting at $86,800).

I specifically said this article was just about fuel. The reason I brought up cost of ownership is because people are arguing that the road maintenance tax and EVSE costs should be cost of ownership and not included in the fuel price. They want to help their numbers by excluding costs directly related to charging or taxes directly related to the ICE fuel equivalent. So, I said that let's talk about total cost of ownership then.

The reason I picked the Mustang GT Premium is because it's as close as you can get to the same as the MME GTPE. They are both Ford, both Mustangs and both GT Premium versions. It's about comparing something that is similar. A Porsche Macan GTS is not even close to an MME GTPE, and absolutely asinine to compare those as equal. If you want to compare your Premium ER MME then do it with a Mustang with a starting MSRP of $36k, or an Escape SUV starting at $28k, or an Explorer starting at $36k. Pick the ICE equivalent from the same brand. Even a fully decked out King Ranch Explorer, with AWD, Leather etc is still cheaper than a Premium ER MME and will probably hold it's value much better as well.

 

[ctenidae]

They want to have their cake and eat it too - or they're just too hell bent on an agenda.

A philosophy adopted across a wide range of ideologies. The "analysis" here is clearly interested in slowing down EV adoption, which is fine, if that's how they roll. The issue I think is highlighted in this extensive conversation is that they are using bad math bordering on outright fabrication to make their point and advance their agenda.

The analysis mixed data points and cherry picked costs to serve its needs. It's bad work, but it will serve to convince some uninformed few to be against EVs. Frankly, that's a good thing. People who aren't doing the research to see through the lies are not good candidates for EV use anyway. People who live under circumstances that fit the article's conclusions should probably not use an EV.

To me, bad statistics used to manipulate the ignorant is a greater offense than the particular position or agenda it serves.

 

[DevSecOps]

A philosophy adopted across a wide range of ideologies. The "analysis" here is clearly interested in slowing down EV adoption, which is fine, if that's how they roll. The issue I think is highlighted in this extensive conversation is that they are using bad math bordering on outright fabrication to make their point and advance their agenda.

The analysis mixed data points and cherry picked costs to serve its needs. It's bad work, but it will serve to convince some uninformed few to be against EVs. Frankly, that's a good thing. People who aren't doing the research to see through the lies are not good candidates for EV use anyway. People who live under circumstances that fit the article's conclusions should probably not use an EV.

To me, bad statistics used to manipulate the ignorant is a greater offense than the particular position or agenda it serves.

I'm not arguing that the data is correct for all parts of the country. I gave an example on the first page where it's much higher than what I calculate for me personally. At the same time I believe that the registration road maintenance fee and EVSE installation fees/equipment are related to charging and should be included in the equation. I don't think that's cherry picking, I think that's looking at it holistically. Have you seen the PG&E discounted rates for EVs in California? Some parts of the country will be significantly lower, 100%, but some parts are significantly higher. To categorically say that the article is false across the board is incorrect in my opinion. I guess by your logic, I shouldn't own either of my EVs and I'm therefore ignorant, easily manipulated and uneducated. Those aren't the worst things ever said to me.

 

[Blue highway]

I know this topic is about fuel price comparison, but those same people who want to push these items into cost of ownership probably don't actually want to compare cost of ownership.

If we take overall investment into an EV, deducting whatever lower cost/mi for fuel there's no way that we could make up the difference in "cost of ownership" where the EV is likely to be costlier.

My Audi SQ5, a performance ICE SUV, loaded with leather, carbon fiber inserts, HUD, ventilated seats, much better handling/ride etc cost less than my MME GTPE. A Ford Mustang GT Premium Fastback has a starting MSRP $20k less than a MME GTPE.

So, either be fair and include road taxes, cost of EVSEs etc in the price of "fuel" or compare the total cost of ownership. They want to have their cake and eat it too.

I dunno, most Mach E's are not GTs. My Premium is a ~47K car and is more comparable to

I'm not arguing that the data is correct for all parts of the country. I gave an example on the first page where it's much higher than what I calculate for me personally. At the same time I believe that the registration road maintenance fee and EVSE installation fees/equipment are related to charging and should be included in the equation. I don't think that's cherry picking, I think that's looking at it holistically. Have you seen the PG&E discounted rates for EVs in California? Some parts of the country will be significantly lower, 100%, but some parts are significantly higher. To categorically say that the article is false across the board is incorrect in my opinion. I guess by your logic, I shouldn't own either of my EVs and I'm therefore ignorant, easily manipulated and uneducated. Those aren't the worst things ever said to me.

An example of the problem in the analysis is amortizing the EVSE over one year. Should you include the EVSE, sure. is one year reasonable?

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