Is the Mach-E really 7 years behind Tesla?

[MadScientist]

These are the comments made by Zac Cataldo (about 2. 15 in the presentation).

Tesla fanboy? I really can't see how such an opinion is substantiated by the specs. What does everyone else think?

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[FASTBACK]

Now #1 BEV seller in Norway is Audi - . Tesla S and X are not selling anymore -
MAYBE Mach E will join Audi ?

 

[Wonky_Donkey]

Wow the fanboy force was strong on that panel ! Thank god for the host keeping them grounded

 

[dbsb3233]

Depends on which aspects. In some aspects, the Mach-e is likely to be better than anything Tesla has (styling, build quality, service network). In other ways they're a few years behind (batteries, range, charging network, software, autonomy).

But not 7 years. What that panelist fails to note is that Ford learned a lot from Tesla and is joining the game with a head start relative to where Tesla started. They don't have to totally reinvent the wheel like Tesla did. By getting in the game now, Ford starts off with far better batteries available than Tesla had a decade ago. And Ford doesn't have to build their own charging network from the ground up.

Ford also already knows how to mass produce vehicles. Tesla had to learn and perfect that from scratch. And Ford is actually able to deliver on time without the perpetual delays that plagued Tesla.

 

[Cvdbos]

Depends on which aspects. In some aspects, the Mach-e is likely to be better than anything Tesla has (styling, build quality, service network). In other ways they're a few years behind (batteries, range, charging network, software, autonomy).

But not 7 years. What that panelist fails to note is that Ford learned a lot from Tesla and is joining the game with a head start relative to where Tesla started. They don't have to totally reinvent the wheel like Tesla did. By getting in the game now, Ford starts off with far better batteries available than Tesla had a decade ago. And Ford doesn't have to build their own charging network from the ground up.

Ford also already knows how to mass produce vehicles. Tesla had to learn and perfect that from scratch. And Ford is actually able to deliver on time without the perpetual delays that plagued Tesla.

Don't forget that in some European countries there is already a large and growing network of public charge facilities. There is no real need for a separate Ford charge netword. The market is already active and growing.
Maybe one of the reasons Ford is starting with the delivery in those countries.
There is a rumor about end September beginning October for the first deliveries.

 

[dbsb3233]

Don't forget that in some European countries there is already a large and growing network of public charge facilities. There is no real need for a separate Ford charge netword. The market is already active and growing.

Exactly. Same with charging networks in the US like EA. While they haven't caught up to Tesla's network yet, the gap is closing fast. And more will be added before the Mach-e even hits the roads.

Ultimately both the vehicle manufacturers like Ford and the charging networks like EA should come out ahead by being independent operations. Just like any gas station can fuel any ICE vehicle now (and vise versa). Tesla's exclusive setup was fine for the first wave but it'll be problematic for future growth as the competition grows dramatically.

 

[silverelan]

On the charging networks, I kind of think that the motivations & incentives diverge somewhat for the OEMs and the charging providers.

Tesla's entire premise of the Supercharger Network is to put high powered DC chargers in places people want to go and along the routes for people to get there. That's why you see Superchargers in places that make no economic sense (West Yellowstone, MT; Sedona, AZ; Aberdeen, WA, etc). The network's geographic spread is mission-driven to enable travel by Tesla owners and further drive sales.

Third party providers are motivated by the business case that can be made to justify a charging station's existence. EA takes into account the density of expected EV ownership and gauges if the market is sufficient to support a station's placement. This business plan perspective helps explain why you've got EA stations clustered in metro areas while significant gaps along major interstates are not solved.

Note: we have the better part of a year or longer before the MME is introduced and my criticisms may be resolved by then.

 

[dbsb3233]

I just watched the first 20 minutes of that. OMG those 3 guys on the right (especially Zac) were awful. They really drank the koolaid.

Thank goodness for Chelsea and Ben for injecting some reality into the conversation. That helped me choose who to follow and who to dump.

 

[MadScientist]

It was pretty bad. Also, I’d like to know if any of those ‘experts‘ hold Tesla stock and as such would have a conflict of interests in being impartial.

 

[dbsb3233]

It was pretty bad. Also, I’d like to know if any of those ‘experts‘ hold Tesla stock and as such would have a conflict of interests in being impartial.

The vibe I got was that they were activists. Motivated by their hardcore activism more than whatever financial interest they may have.

It was hard to watch. Only got through half before I had to shut it off. The audience questions I heard were the same way.

 

[dbsb3233]

On the charging networks, I kind of think that the motivations & incentives diverge somewhat for the OEMs and the charging providers.

Tesla's entire premise of the Supercharger Network is to put high powered DC chargers in places people want to go and along the routes for people to get there. That's why you see Superchargers in places that make no economic sense (West Yellowstone, MT; Sedona, AZ; Aberdeen, WA, etc). The network's geographic spread is mission-driven to enable travel by Tesla owners and further drive sales.

Third party providers are motivated by the business case that can be made to justify a charging station's existence. EA takes into account the density of expected EV ownership and gauges if the market is sufficient to support a station's placement. This business plan perspective helps explain why you've got EA stations clustered in metro areas while significant gaps along major interstates are not solved.

Note: we have the better part of a year or longer before the MME is introduced and my criticisms may be resolved by then.

I don't disagree with the business case logic, but regarding city vs non-city, to me it looks almost the opposite -- EA locations look highly focused on "getting there" routes. Mostly on interstates between cities with far less coverage inside the cities and at the destinations. Looks to me like they're NOT clustered in the cities, when looking at their national map. (California notwithstanding where there's more coverage in general, including cities.)

But of course since Tesla has 1870 stations and EA just 407, they still have a long way to go to fill in more of the interstate routes.

 

[Cvdbos]

I don't disagree with the business case logic, but regarding city vs non-city, to me it looks almost the opposite -- EA locations look highly focused on "getting there" routes. Mostly on interstates between cities with far less coverage inside the cities and at the destinations. Looks to me like they're NOT clustered in the cities, when looking at their national map. (California notwithstanding where there's more coverage in general, including cities.)

But of course since Tesla has 1870 stations and EA just 407, they still have a long way to go to fill in more of the interstate routes.

Ik drive a Mazda CX5 GTM. An ICE so and when I drive on the highway and have to refill I always leave the highway for a gasstation somewhere around. It's simply so much cheaper, that it's stupid tu use the highway gasstations.
Why can't I do the same with my new word Mustang Mach E, combine it withe a cup of coffee or a meal, rest half an hour and continue my road trip?
The DC charge stations along the highways are, in my opinion, in case of emergency or for guys where the company pays anyhow.
The rest of us will simple plan a route, take our time and have no problem at all.
Fast DC charging is highly overrated.

 

[silverelan]

I don't disagree with the business case logic, but regarding city vs non-city, to me it looks almost the opposite -- EA locations look highly focused on "getting there" routes. Mostly on interstates between cities with far less coverage inside the cities and at the destinations. Looks to me like they're NOT clustered in the cities, when looking at their national map. (California notwithstanding where there's more coverage in general, including cities.)

But of course since Tesla has 1870 stations and EA just 407, they still have a long way to go to fill in more of the interstate routes.

For example, EA has 7 stations in the Denver metro area but there's an absurd gap from Grand Junction, CO to make it to Richfield, UT. EA has lots of these gap examples vs. urban density. I can guarantee you that Sacramento doesn't need its 17th EA station.

 

[dbsb3233]

Ik drive a Mazda CX5 GTM. An ICE so and when I drive on the highway and have to refill I always leave the highway for a gasstation somewhere around. It's simply so much cheaper, that it's stupid tu use the highway gasstations.
Why can't I do the same with my new word Mustang Mach E, combine it withe a cup of coffee or a meal, rest half an hour and continue my road trip?
The DC charge stations along the highways are, in my opinion, in case of emergency or for guys where the company pays anyhow.
The rest of us will simple plan a route, take our time and have no problem at all.
Fast DC charging is highly overrated.

I tend to agree with your final sentence, with some caveats.

DCFC is very important for long road trips in a BEV (like 500+ miles). But long road trips are usually a very small part of driving for most people. As such, there's a tendency to overstate their importance toward the growth of BEVs into the mainstream market. The vast majority of most people's drives are handled with one full charge. 90% of the focus should be on home chargers and apartment chargers and maybe workplace chargers, not road trip chargers. 8-12 hour charges on L2, so you're good for the whole day and don't have to "ABC" (Always Be Charging at short stops throughout the day).

 

[dbsb3233]

For example, EA has 7 stations in the Denver metro area but there's an absurd gap from Grand Junction, CO to make it to Richfield, UT. EA has lots of these gap examples vs. urban density. I can guarantee you that Sacramento doesn't need its 17th EA station.

Tesla is the same way though, if not more so, about overloading the cities. On the whole, their map looks even more city-loaded than EAs.

But I agree that both could/should shift more of that to between-city highways.

That example is the one I'm most interested in too. EA really needs to add a charge in Green River UT, like Tesla has to fill that gap. Otherwise EA coverage from Denver to Las Vegas is ok. I still wouldn't choose to take my BEV on that route though because the # of stops and length of charging time is still to long to mess with versus just driving my ICE, but for someone else that is happy making those compromises, it could be done if they add an I-70 charger to fill that gap.