PBP for Mach-E

[Dr. J]

It's worth noting I've done this before on cars where you can get the same vehicle, but different drivetrains. Those are relatively few, but even there the PBP is hundreds of k's miles; so this isn't a Mach-E thing, it's an EV thing in general.

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[All Hat No Cattle]

How has anybody been screwed over by the oil companies?

They provide a useful product that we voluntarily buy.

I read the financial news regularly>

https://www.texasstandard.org/stori...re-facing-an-investigation-into-price-fixing/

https://www.mercurynews.com/2007/08/21/lawsuit-accuses-oil-companies-of-price-fixing/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timwor...into-oil-market-price-fixing/?sh=c6c838233c40

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-manipulation-and-slippery-results-11587571944

 

[Fat Mach]

For me, I'm brand loyal to Ford and want an HOV eligible car. If I didn't want the HOV sticker I'd be getting a Mach 1 for sure. Thankfully I'm not all about the money. If I were, I'd drive the POS Focus Electric I currently have into the ground.

 

[Dr. J]

Provide some comparable vehicles then. Don't just do so based on price, though, that's another thing the Tesla people tend to do - "my car cost $70k so it's comparable to these other cars that cost the same" and neglect things like overall appearance, panel fit, paint issues, etc etc etc.

I find a BMW x2 that looks to be similar with an MSRP of about $39k.

 

[Dr. J]

For me, I'm brand loyal to Ford and want an HOV eligible car. If I didn't want the HOV sticker I'd be getting a Mach 1 for sure. Thankfully I'm not all about the money. If I were, I'd drive the POS Focus Electric I currently have into the ground.

I'm a stock owner (X plan) which is why I am putting a relatively high amount of effort into it. No HOV benefits here. Heck, the car isn't even eligible for a state credit of $1500, only the federal credit!

 

[TOBG]

I have had a Chevy Volt and currently a Hyundai Hybrid. I got the Hyundai because it had a lot of safety features the Volt did not. I wanted to go to a BEV but I wanted to wait until the batteries allowed for greater distances. I also wanted a SUV /CRV. The Mach e fit the bill, I made no attempt to do a cost/benefit analysis.

 

[Tsand4]

If looking purely at the financials and payback of owning a vehicle, "the cheapest/most cost effective vehicle you can own is the one you already have." -Dave Ramsey
Will any new vehicle have a positive $ payback?
I chose the MME as a step in the right direction for our environment, the convenience of "filling up" in my garage, having minimal maintenance costs and to enjoy the vehicle that I spend many hours in per day. I am confident that I will be paid back in smiles and exhilaration with each drive. (And it looks better than a bloated catfish.)

 

[Blinkin]

Among ICE vehicles, Ford has specifically said they benchmarked the Porsche Macan as a competitor. And obviously the MY from the EV side.

 

[Maric]

There's really no such thing as a car that is a good investment. There are exceptions but overall you buy what you buy because it's what you want to drive. At least that's the case with me. I want an environmentally safe vehicle with good performance and without Tesla's quality issues.

 

[Dan G]

I'd be interested in what you compared for costs of the vehicles. This is all USA prices. I priced out a Honda CR-V, as that's much more in line with the Mach E. (You even say something about the Escape instead of the Ecoboost, so you probably agree with me there.) After just the federal tax incentive, the Mach E costs $7k more. Using your math, that's only 350k miles. Not close to your 900k. In order to get the same features/options, I had to go with the top trim CR-V, no AWD, and a standard range RWD Premium Mach-E.

You also dismiss out of hand maintenance costs. I'm not really sure why. Do some research about regularly scheduled maintenance on ICE cars and BEVs. Things from oil to brakes.

I'm not saying BEVs are super cheap compared to ICE cars. I'm not saying it's cheaper to own a Mach-E over a CR-V. Yes, even with maintenance thrown in, most people say it takes years to "break even" with an ICE equivalent. But you seem to push things to an extreme.

I would turn the question back on the OP. Are you trying to justify owning an ICE car over a BEV? Are you an ICE "fanboy" trying to convince people not to buy electric?

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Cars are not a financial investment in the sense of "payback" or a Return On Investment. They are a tool, nothing more, nothing less. They may or may not also have psychological characteristics for you. If you're considering a BEV for reasons which include environmental considerations, those are going to hard to factor into your personal decision.

If your decision-making process on a car is all financial whether that's an ICE vehicle or a BEV, then go for it. If you do not make a purchase decision for an ICE vehicle based upon "payback," ask yourself why that it is.
Tools cost money

 

[JellyBelly]

Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.

The hard truth I tell myself - if you leave emotion out - $$ wise I cant justify buying the MME compared to equivalent ICE vehicles. All in, similar vehicles will cost me less over certain miles/years if i purchase normal ICE vehicles. But i was thinking of getting the BMW X3 or Audi Q5, or some other expensive ICE vehicle its going to be different. Also if you simply look at leasing versus purchase there will be difference in terms of cash out of the pocket for the duration you hold the vehicle.

There may be pockets in the country where gas is very expensive but electricity is way cheap. I don't know of any such places personally. But where electricity is cheaper I found gas to be also cheaper (I am not using any published evidence here- just my observations). So buying the MME comes down to emotional or other reasons.

 

[txaggies07]

Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.

I have used your logic to not get hybrid versions of cars in the past. The Mustang is an emotional purchase for me though. It does a lot of the things I want right. I currently drive a civic so the premium of the MachE is ~25k.

I was looking at getting something like a RAV4 Hybrid. For the extra money~8k I get much better performance,much better styling, wireless CarPlay,and something that “moves” me on a personal level that no car I could ever purchase has before.

On a different note. Payback <2 years is useful for certain types of purchases. For others you may consider something like a DCF since you can take saved cash flow and invest it to get a return. That is how I make finance vs cash decisions. Also I am an economist so for some reason I find it fun.

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