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PBP for Mach-E

Kamuelaflyer

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You're right, but there wouldn't be much comparison within a class because they'll all have similar mpg (Within a few mpg) and the prices won't differ that much - at that point it would come down to qualitative things like style, where things are located, layout, etc etc. Here I am trying to bridge a ~ $15k gap with a ~ 2 cent per mile operating difference.
I quite understand. There are intangibles as well that might factor in: environmental considerations etc. Those may or may not be a deciding factor epending upon a person's situation of course.

Plus there are a lot of variables for those in other parts of the country too who might be grappling with the same questions. I live in an area where cheap gas is $3.60 per gallon and electricity is 41¢ per kWh during base off-peak hours (9 am to 5 pm -- REALLY). Those will skew other's calculations.

Good luck.
 

ajmartineau

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If you really not to save money on your transportation costs, look into a low mileage three-year-old lease returned BEV. I have one and the savings on gas pays for the car.
 

jhalkias

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Thanks for being honest. As I said I only really discovered this a week or 2 ago, in discussions about the ID.4 and MY, etc - I'm not one of the many of you that have been waiting months for this (I'm a shop-when-I-need-to kind of person, for cars at least). I can certainly see the argument if your electricity is cheap and gas expensive, after all that's the main driver behind the PBP, besides the capital cost difference, which is also highly affected by tax incentives.

Regarding your heat pump comment -care to elaborate?
I'll give you a quick response on that for him . . . newer MY and M3 cars are having numerous problems with heating the cabin in cold climates and the common thread seems to be that those are vehicles with their newer "Octovalve" and heat pumps rather than traditional resistive heating. If you Google it, you will find articles on it.
 

PeeCee

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Thanks for being honest. As I said I only really discovered this a week or 2 ago, in discussions about the ID.4 and MY, etc - I'm not one of the many of you that have been waiting months for this (I'm a shop-when-I-need-to kind of person, for cars at least). I can certainly see the argument if your electricity is cheap and gas expensive, after all that's the main driver behind the PBP, besides the capital cost difference, which is also highly affected by tax incentives.

Regarding your heat pump comment -care to elaborate?
The new Model Y and Model 3 are using a new heat pump to produce heat in the cabin. A lot of people have complained around here that it just did not work. So there is no cabin heating. It's not affecting ALL the Model Y or Model 3's, but there's been a lot of reported cases that it just piles up in the list of QC issues from Tesla.

We've been lucky here, since the weather hasn't been that cold. We've been around the 0 degrees Celcius (around 32 Farenheit) this winter. Some nights we'd drop to -12 Celcius (close to 0 Farenheit). It's still cold if you get in your car's cabin and there's no heat in it! :p But usually, our winters has at least 1 week where we get 3-4 days of -30 celcius (-22 F) and with windchills can go down to -40 celcius (-40 F).. So if your cabin isn't warming at those temperatures, it gets really hard to drive around :p

Just do a quick search for "Tesla Heating Failure".
 

ChasingCoral

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Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision,
I have a Nissan Leaf and am committed to electrified transportation but want something with more range. I'd considered a Tesla but wanted a hatchback for the dog and other utilitarian reasons. By the time the Model Y was announced I'd learned too much about Tesla to ever want to buy one (and once the Y came out it was clearly ugly too!).

Ford announced it was coming out with an all electric Mustang with a lift back and I was sold! The more I've heard and seen, the more I knew I wanted one. It's a perfomance BEV at a reasonable price, too!

and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?
No.

This about want, not some sort of economics to make me feel better about the purchase. If I were just thinking money l I'd stick with the Leaf.
 

Paulalex01

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Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?
I’m retired electrical engineer obtaining an electric car. I’ve been a Ford person my driving life and, the MME showed up last year. It fits the bill.
 
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Dan G

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but how could I compare a vehicle with ~ 2XX range vs. a solid 3XX if not closer to 400 mile range?
If this is part of the comparison, then all BEVs are out of your equation. Range isn't everything. It seems to me that you're picking what to compare so that an ICE vehicle will always come out on top. That's fine, we all feel the need to justify purchases, especially big ones. 230 miles, or 210 for AWD, if you prefer, is more than enough for 90% of buyers.

I see the CRV as larger than the MME and the HRV more comparable size-wise.
MME comes in right between the two models in cargo space. It's 4 inches longer then the CR-V, 1 inch wider but 3 inches shorter. Which does make the same height as the HR-V. That still leaves it 16 inches longer than the HR-V and 4 inches wider.

Pure cargo space, I could see your argument, but I would still disagree. Neither one of these models compare to the MME in pure cargo space. (I just went with the CR-V to stay in the Honda brand.) Size of the vehicle though, it's very much on the scale of the CR-V.
 

Nick Nick

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The payback in the UK is an interesting one (not that those in America care)

We get £3,000 back (approx $4k USD) on any new BEV purchase under £50k
£0 road tax per annum
£0 Congestion charge

and every city, being broke, are starting to introduce congestion charges if you drive through them in anything other than a BEV

its £15 per day! ($20 USD)

so the savings can add up fairly quickly depending on where you live and drive
 

Jim Glass

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Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.
The last two sentences are probably on point but you ignore completely the altruistic reason, less pollution which may yet be not great but it’s something
 

Fat Mach

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Acceleration - neato factor but basically unusable.
What a sad existence. I typically use max acceleration in all my cars, every time I drive them. From the slow Focus Electric and Crew Cab 4x4 with the 6 speed manual, to the old Falcon with the 289, and on to the supercharged 5.0L Shelby- I absolutely love flooring it.
 

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You're right, but there wouldn't be much comparison within a class because they'll all have similar mpg (Within a few mpg) and the prices won't differ that much - at that point it would come down to qualitative things like style, where things are located, layout, etc etc. Here I am trying to bridge a ~ $15k gap with a ~ 2 cent per mile operating difference.
The per mile operating difference comes down to fuel PLUS maintenance. Even if the fuel difference is only 2-3 cents per mile (usually closer to 6-8 cents per mile when you compare a typical overnight electrical rate of $0.11/kwh to average ICE fuel efficiency). Maintenance costs for ICE vehicles are easily $0.08+ per mile, compared to ~$0.05 per mile for a BEV, based on what I’ve researched. You probably have an actual savings of at least $0.05 to $0.06 per mile with a BEV, and that’s probably a baseline (minimum). For those (like me) who drive 20K-25K miles per year and plan to own the car at least 6-7 years, going to BEV makes perfect economic sense. Less so for fewer miles or shorter ownership periods.

If you are driving 15K miles per year for, say, 5 years, and at the lower end of the cost savings spectrum ($0.05/mile), you're not going to win from an economic perspective. In that case, it comes down to how much utility you get out of reducing your CO2 footprint. For many of us, the per-mile cost savings are closer to $0.10/mile...in that case it doesn't take a crazy amount of time or miles to make the BEV a reasonable choice from an economic perspective. Many people on this forum value the reduction in pollution offered by BEVs, and that extra push is enough to make the decision to go BEV an easy one.
 

dbsb3233

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I know I won't reach full payback on by Mach-E (vs ICE), but I'm at the point in my life (age and financial situation) where I could splurge some. So I did. Being retired, we don't drive a lot of miles. More miles/year shrinks the gap in price, and vise versa.

My incremental electricity rate is only $0.10/kWh, so that helps (that's not TOD pricing, or solar, just basic power company pricing). Gas is low at the moment but it won't stay there. I assume a $2.50/gal price over time. Fuel costs work out to about $0.10/mile to drive our Escape and $0.033/mile to drive the Mach-E.

Maintenance will save a little but I don't count that for much because we rarely have big repair bills, and I suspect BEVs will really have a few more things to deal with than some tend to think. So I don't count much savings there beyond oil changes.

So over 100k miles, that's $6700 saved in fuel and maybe $1000 in oil changes.

My First Edition (minus $10k in fed + state tax credits) will be about $53k after sales tax. Subtract $7700 from that and it's around $45k comparable ICE. The MME is a little nicer than our $35k-ish Escape Titanium, but fairly similar size. So I figure I'm overpaying by close to $10k. Although if I were buying a new ICE vehicle now I might jump up to an Edge instead, so it's hard to make an exact price comparison.
 

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I haven’t tried to read this whole thread, so someone may have already pointed this out, but while I respect anybody who enjoys geeking out over numbers as much as I do, your analysis really requires a comparison to another vehicle in order to be useful.

When I was considering for my Ford Fusion Hybrid over 10 years ago, the analysis was pretty easy: what was the break even point at which my gas and maintenance savings would exceed the premium paid for the hybrid? It was a pretty easy analysis because I knew the exact premium paid over the non-hybrid version.

For the Mach E, it’s hard to quantify the premium because what alternative are you comparing it to? You can’t compare this to a used Honda Civic. That’s a dumb comparison and would lead to a dumb analysis.

There is no ICE version of the MME. You’ve gotta find a small to midsize crossover SUV with at least somewhat comparable bells and whistles. What would that be? That’s not a rhetorical question - I’m not much of a car guy so I’d be curious to know what others think would be the most comparable ICE vehicle to the MME. Obviously there’s a lot of tech here that you’re not gonna find anywhere else, but what gets closest? And don’t say Tesla because the MME already soundly beats the Y on price thanks currently to the tax credit.
 

kdryden99

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Ill explain it in a different way. I recently went to Nissan for a 2021 Rogue. I was quoted 580$ CDN (446$US) for an AWD SV Rogue for 84 months. I currently spend 300$cdn/month on gas (230$US) So if i add 446+230 I get 676$US/month for a 2021 Rogue AWD now I'll remove my taxes of 15% to be fair since we are trying to give US numbers, 587.95$US For 84 months or 686/month for 72 months. How much is a Mach Premium AWD in the US? $870.46/mo for 72months. So not that big a difference 200$. Once its paid off ill start recovering my money.
 



 









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