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PBP for Mach-E

kgautam28

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Today's incentive is not to save per mile cost, but environment. The current cars are expensive and efficiency is still very low.
Our purchasing makes the world take a shift and slowly reduce costs in the long run.

Also compare ice cars and electric cars with same price and features
 

GoGoGadgetMachE

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I did a big serious reply earlier today but I have a reputation to uphold or something so:

PBP? Is that the "peanut butter protocol"? because that's easy - put it in the frunk and if necessary, wash the frunk out afterwards.
 

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Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.
I haven't read all the posts in this thread, but I thought current hurt to add more perspective...

I did a calculation and the MME was about 7k more expensive than the top of the line Escape PHEV. Which was another vehicle I thought I would seriously consider purchasing to replace my existing car. Will it be cheaper just because electricity is cheaper than gas? No.

Factors in MME favor:
  • Lower maintenance cost
  • Lower fuel cost
  • Federal tax credit
  • Significantly lower title & registration cost (in my state anyway)
Factors against MME:
  • Higher purchase price
  • Higher sales tax (rate is same but see previous bullet)
  • Higher interest cost (see previous bullet)
  • Higher insurance cost
  • One-time purchase of installing a home charger.

Non-monetary factors such as HOV lane access are nice.
 

All Hat No Cattle

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Those were accusations and I know one of them to be false. There are true stories of it, so try linking those next time.

Sigh. I'm so sorry that I am going so off topic, but the guy called me out.

So, how about some convictions. From Washington Post.

Five cut-rate gasoline firms, their trade association, and one of its officers were convicted in federal court today of conspiring between 1967 and 1974 to fix their prices on $4 billion worth of gasoline. Two other firms were acquitted.

Convicted were Amerada Hess Corp., Ashland Oil Inc., Kayo Oil Co., Meadville Corp., Petroleum Marketing Corp. (PMC), SIGMA, and SIGMA executive director Robert R. Cavin, of Vienna, Va. Acquitted were Crown Central Petroleum Corp., of Baltimore, and Continental Oil Co., of Connecticut.
More recent, 2019

Four years after they were accused of cheating customers out of $100 million, a group of Vermont gasoline distributors has agreed to settle a class-action lawsuit for a fraction of that amount.

The proposed settlement, filed Thursday in Vermont Superior Court, calls for the companies to pay $1.5 million to gasoline consumers in northwestern Vermont. Up to $500,000 of that could go to the lawyers who brought the suit and more could be subtracted for the cost of distributing the money.
I mean, come on!
Oil industry rocked by global corruption scandals
https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/02/02/oil-industry-rocked-by-global-corruption-scandals.html

The convictions and settlements would fill a big book. Simply Google "corrupt oil and gasoline companies" and have popcorn ready while you read. And your blood pressure pills.:)
 

janitorjim

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It is made by ford which is perhaps the best car maker. It is a mustang the most prized car model I can think of and with $7500 tax credit the best price you can get for a 2021 model
 

Fat Mach

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Sigh. I'm so sorry that I am going so off topic, but the guy called me out.

So, how about some convictions. From Washington Post.



More recent, 2019


I mean, come on!
Oil industry rocked by global corruption scandals
https://www.thestar.com/business/2018/02/02/oil-industry-rocked-by-global-corruption-scandals.html

The convictions and settlements would fill a big book. Simply Google "corrupt oil and gasoline companies" and have popcorn ready while you read. And your blood pressure pills.:)
Well, thank goodness no one ever tried to manipulate the electricity market. #enron.
 

JayTee

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No but why would I? I don't think that's a proper comparison, frankly. When are you going to use that acceleration? The track?
You're making my case. Some people think that acceleration is really important. Some people think that interior luxury is really important. Some people think that Handling is the most important thing. Some people think that range is all that matters.

But believe me, Tesla wouldn't invest so much time and energy into making their cars really really fast if that didn't matter to a lot of people. Neither would Porsche.
 

JayTee

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Acceleration - neato factor but basically unusable. I doubt very many EV owners are headed to the track every weekend. For that matter I never really understood the obsession with HP for street cars - it's like buying some $70k truck when you have zero intention to ever use it as such.

Low center of gravity - Again, track thing. I've owned a MINI Cooper in the past, btw. Are you doing some super tight corners on an offramp or something?

Interior noise - not aware this is a huge deal?

Fuels in your garage rather than at a gas station. - mildly attractive for me, but also a detriment (but that's an EV thing.... meaning refueling away from home requires a bit of planning)

Frunk - but smaller rear end. I don't see the Frunk here really being of much use, frankly. Probably store some tow straps or something there. Who all is going tailgating with this to use it as a cooler?

Lower emissions - could care less

Power available for appliances (some models) - easy bolt on to any car (in fact I have a few inverters at home right now)

Tax credits - already included in PBP calcs. As I said in my state there are ZERO state or utility incentives for this, which is a shame

HOV access (some jurisdictions) - doesn't apply to me

Renewable fuel vs limited - don't care
There certainly are a lot of automakers that spend a lot of resources making their cars fast.

But I didn't realize that this thread was meant to analyze based specifically on your taste. I thought you were talking about the payback for battery electric vehicles in general.

So, it sounds like for you there is no payback. It takes forever.

For some people, who are comparing to Land rovers or BMWs, it may be instantaneous.
 

dbsb3233

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You're making my case. Some people think that acceleration is really important. Some people think that interior luxury is really important. Some people think that Handling is the most important thing. Some people think that range is all that matters.

But believe me, Tesla wouldn't invest so much time and energy into making their cars really really fast if that didn't matter to a lot of people. Neither would Porsche.
It's inherent with electric motors. Was sort of a bonus that just came with EVs.

It is something Tesla has pounced on as a selling point, and I can't blame them for exploiting it. I would too. Although I do find the Tesla fanboys' constant bragging about how "ludacrous" their acceleration is rather annoying. As if we should all be peeling out from stoplights on a frequent basis. It is pretty drastic overkill.
 

ARK

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Well, AWD is a must around here, so anything I am comparing here is all AWD, and long range as well. I realize that adds cost to the MME, but how could I compare a vehicle with ~ 2XX range vs. a solid 3XX if not closer to 400 mile range? I didn't break it down to see if the AWD option is more expensive for the MME or ICE though, though there may be a difference.

I see the CRV as larger than the MME and the HRV more comparable size-wise.

As I said previously, I was interested in this as Teslas look ugly to me and the whole fanboy culture really rubs me wrong, on top of things like bumpers falling off in the rain, roofs ripping off, and having to replace drive units and batteries multiple times "under warranty". I am also a Ford shareholder and can benefit from X here. I'm not the type of person that keeps their ears to the ground waiting for stuff like this, just survey the market when I need to be in it.
I think some of the cars you are comparing the MME to are not the fairest choices in making your comparison. The CRV and HRV are solid economy cars, whereas the MME can be better described as entry level luxury or near luxury.

It looks like with only the federal tax credit, you would be coming in the high $40k range for your MME. As a result, instead of the CRV or HRV, I think a better ICE vehicle from the Honda family to compare the ER AWD MME to would be the Acura RDX with many of its possible option packages added.

I think you also mentioned the BMW X3 in one of your responses. But the X3 is more like a conventional SUV in its shape. The MME, with its coupe like profile would perhaps be better compared to an entry level BMW X4 or Mercedes GLC coupe.

One car that I am a big fan of that I wish I saw more of on the road is the Chevy Blazer in RS trim. This is a higher trim of the Blazer and I think is similar to the MME in that it is puts a premium on styling while also trying to be a relatively sporty vehicle. In fact, I distinctly remember it being described as the Camaro of SUVs. In this way, while it is slightly larger then the MME and obviously not a BEV, I think it’s the vehicle that in spirit is the MMEs closest competitor and its most analogous ICE equivalent from another manufacturer.

Anyway I’m going for the MME because I wanted a BEV, an SUV, and after reading many, many car reviews over the years, decided that the Mustang was still my overall favorite car (I am keeping my 2006 Mustang GT). When the MME was announced, it combined these three things I wanted all into one car so I jumped at the chance to get it.

In any case, if you would be just as or almost as happy with an HRV because you are not really into sportier SUVs (nothing wrong with that, not everyone is), you could save quite a bit of money by not paying for a bunch of features you have little to no interest in on the MME.
 

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I didn't run any numbers either. If it was a strictly business decision for me then I'd just keep my Focus Electric and be happy. It is by far the most economical EV that I was able to find and that was because I was able to purchase it pretty much brand new for about 40% of the MSRP figure so it was no brainer for me.

I will be buying the Mach E for full MSRP (less X plan) so it's not a wise financial decision for me. I am splurging.

However, that being said.....I almost splurged on a Jaguar IPace so compared to that scenario....the MME is a wise financial decision. :) So, it's just a matter of how you want to look at it. :)
Are you my alter ego? Word for word except I'd still be driving a 2010 Prius.
 

Jim Glass

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There is one thing to praise in most of these responses. Most are being honest in saying they just want the car for their own reasons which have little to do with economy, cost, performance. I'm kind of in the same boat. It would make much more sense to keep my current car than buy a Mach E. I just want a new toy. It's been 53 years since I owned my last Ford, a Falcon Futura hardtop with a 289 V8. Since then I've owned maybe 30 cars, all foreign, mostly German. With the yen for a new car, I started with the Bronco Badlands, but just can't make myself wait until 2022. I gave serious thought to a Bronco Sport Badlands, but started reading about the Mach E and said "what the hell! It's time"
 
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Dr. J

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I've calculated my per-mile cost of ownership for my previous and current cars (2007 BMW 328xi and 2014 BMW 328d, respectively), both purchased Certified Pre-Owned. I drove the 2007 to 180,000 miles and my current 2014 328d has 82,000 miles, and I'll be trading it in or selling it when I get my MME in April.

My per-mile cost for the 2007 BMW was about $0.39, and that includes everything (depreciation, O&M, premium fuel). My 2014 will end up around $0.40/mile (more depreciation but much lower fuel costs, due to the fantastic mileage from the diesel engine). TBH, I'm going to miss the 650-mile highway range of the diesel, but I'm willing to give that up for the idea of a BEV.

The MME will put me around $0.40/mile, assuming I hold on to it for six years and drive 150,000 miles (also accounting for the $7,500 federal tax credit). When I went through this calculation, I was excited that the MME wouldn't increase my current cost of ownership; that, and I get a new car that is fun to drive AND doesn't have any tailpipe emissions.

SO, my decision was based on the assumption that I can go 'green' without increasing my cost of ownership. With my current BMW coming off its covered maintenance period, I'm also excited about avoiding the dreaded BMW 100,000-mile service milestones ($$$$$$$) and owning a new car with much lower maintenance costs. The Tesla Model Y was close to meeting this criteria, but the tax credit put the MME over the edge for me. Also, I live in Metro Detroit, my father-in-law is a Ford retiree (Z Plan!), and I wanted to reward Ford for making this bold leap.
Nice to see someone else is honest with numbers.

One big issue I see is that (well, coming from a Tesla forum so take that for what it is) EV owners also tend to be the types that would take stealership servicing hook, line and sinker. That is, they were indeed paying through the nose for "maintenance", but I'd argue that they were really being taken. Stories of paying a dealer $150 for an oil change (that you can do for like $20 with very good parts), or those omnibus services that include a lot of spurious things like "check this...." "inspect that...." "change blinker fluid" and maybe an oil change or tire rotation but charge like $1k. I've owned many cars and never done any of that, and honestly I have yet to have a car that I would consider to have had extraneous repairs - brakes, oil, filters, plugs, etc are all somewhat expected, all DIY, and none particularly expensive.
 
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Dr. J

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The per mile operating difference comes down to fuel PLUS maintenance. Even if the fuel difference is only 2-3 cents per mile (usually closer to 6-8 cents per mile when you compare a typical overnight electrical rate of $0.11/kwh to average ICE fuel efficiency). Maintenance costs for ICE vehicles are easily $0.08+ per mile, compared to ~$0.05 per mile for a BEV, based on what I’ve researched. You probably have an actual savings of at least $0.05 to $0.06 per mile with a BEV, and that’s probably a baseline (minimum). For those (like me) who drive 20K-25K miles per year and plan to own the car at least 6-7 years, going to BEV makes perfect economic sense. Less so for fewer miles or shorter ownership periods.

If you are driving 15K miles per year for, say, 5 years, and at the lower end of the cost savings spectrum ($0.05/mile), you're not going to win from an economic perspective. In that case, it comes down to how much utility you get out of reducing your CO2 footprint. For many of us, the per-mile cost savings are closer to $0.10/mile...in that case it doesn't take a crazy amount of time or miles to make the BEV a reasonable choice from an economic perspective. Many people on this forum value the reduction in pollution offered by BEVs, and that extra push is enough to make the decision to go BEV an easy one.
8 cents a mile, so over 100k miles, $8000? That's absurd. My last car over 200k I probably didn't spend half of that, even including services that an EV would also have (like tires). This makes me wonder what your point of reference is - do you use the dealer's service schedule like gospel and take it there for service? Even if you did I can't see you spending $8,000 in 100k on "service".

Realistically what are the major things you'd go through in 100k? Couple-3 sets of tires, probably 10 oil changes - maybe the plugs are due - perhaps a coolant F&F - what else? Air filters? I can't see how all that adds up to $8000 (and the EV will need tires, too, and it also has a coolant system)
 

dbsb3233

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There is one thing to praise in most of these responses. Most are being honest in saying they just want the car for their own reasons which have little to do with economy, cost, performance. I'm kind of in the same boat. It would make much more sense to keep my current car than buy a Mach E. I just want a new toy. It's been 53 years since I owned my last Ford, a Falcon Futura hardtop with a 289 V8. Since then I've owned maybe 30 cars, all foreign, mostly German. With the yen for a new car, I started with the Bronco Badlands, but just can't make myself wait until 2022. I gave serious thought to a Bronco Sport Badlands, but started reading about the Mach E and said "what the hell! It's time"
I think this is fairly representative of first adopters. We're surely "overpaying" to be first to get the cool new product (whether we realize we are or not). And we generally have more money than average to be in that position, for what's still a pretty expensive car.

Gonna be a different matter trying to sell to the bulk of the mainstream market though.

That's where the $7500 tax credit for the early adopters (first 200,000 per manufacturer) helps close that gap some. Not all the way, but some.
 



 









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