Tesla Supercharger Network vs. the World

[dbsb3233]

Only one little problem -- mass transit only works for a small% of transportation needs. It doesn't come remotely close to getting most people/goods/services from wide variety of starting points and transport it to the wide variety of destinations. At all of the times it needs to take place.

Mass transit works for a SLICE of the transportation pie. But only a slice. Most of the rest of the pie needs flexible, point-to-point, vehicles of various types (cars, trucks, vans, service vehicles, RVs, emergency response, etc etc etc). In other words, automobiles.

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[dbsb3233]

That's not profit. Not even close. Profit is the result of all the revenues minus all of the costs. There's a helluva lot more costs involved than just the electricity. And you didn't apply any sales volume numbers to that selling price to determine revenue.

 

[mattbostonmache]

Can you explain what demand charges?

 

[dbsb3233]

I'd need to see an analysis to arrive at that conclusion. With charging being so slow, a charger can only support a few customers per hour (a fraction of a gas pump, by comparison). And most people will charge at home, greatly reducing the total demand for retail charging relative to gas now. Slow retail charging is also a pain that most people will look to avoid except on road trips. All adding up to a much lower demand (at least relative to gas).

But costs for chargers are also lower than they are for gas pumps. The question is just how much, and how it compares to low demand.

 

[dbsb3233]

I'm not a fan of taxpayer subsidies whether they be state or federal, but I would agree that state is a little less bad as it doesn't force as many distant taxpayers to pay it that will never use it. But that's getting pretty close to the political flame so I'll leave it at that.

EA is mostly funded this decade by a govt edict rather than a normal free market business case. I'm not sure about ChargePoint, EVgo, and others though. I know some of their chargers rely on state subsidies, but I don't know if that just some, or most, or all. Those also tend to be cheaper lower-power chargers (although they're starting to add a few higher power ones).

I'm not saying there's zero business case for retail chargers in all situations, but my guess it's it's a significant money-loser in the majority of cases (without subsidies), and probably will be even when there's 20% BEV market share (US) later in the decade. But I could be wrong. Again, need to see more on the finances. Just seems like sales volume would be too low to generate a lot of revenue.

 

[dbsb3233]

Ha. Good luck with that dream. Try getting a dozen 2x4s home on the bus.

 

[dbsb3233]

No, it wasn't.

But even if you were correct, pining for the olden days plus 5 bucks will get you a Starbucks. The world is far more mobile now, no matter how much you hate it.

 

[ajmartineau]

It will be interesting to see how the grid adapts to the peak demand of high mileage holiday weekends when we have 5-10% BEVs all trying to fill up at the same time.
Hopefully it includes local production and local storage.

 

[EVer]

What's your source for that "300%" number? Sounds wildly optimistic.

As discussed on the preceding pages, he is his own source. He contradicts the Tesla financial statements, and he contradicts himself as well.

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