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Update on Mach-E launch progress from engineering friends in Mexico

Kamuelaflyer

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This whole production/delivery prediction game strikes me a bit like trying to bet on football games when all we know is how good each team's FG kicker is. As the saying goes... a little knowledge is dangerous.

There's just so many factors we don't know, and even the ones we think we know are anecdotal 2nd hand reports that seem spotty. There's just so many holes. And it keeps changing. And sometimes it doesn't even seem to add up.

It's fun to speculate on it, but I'm becoming less and less confident that we have enough info to really be able to make accurate conclusions.
Yup.

the only part of the information that genuinely concerns me is this:

"The orders are not For 2022. ... With the actual orders in for 2021 ford knows they can not make enough in 2021 to fill them all. Hence a person said in the call that 2022 is already really at half capacity, with the run times, and supply issues at the plant. The demand is more than ford expected."

Emphasis added.

Right now, they can't fill the orders they've taken. What happens down the road is another story.
 

janitorjim

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Yup.

the only part of the information that genuinely concerns me is this:

"The orders are not For 2022. ... With the actual orders in for 2021 ford knows they can not make enough in 2021 to fill them all. Hence a person said in the call that 2022 is already really at half capacity, with the run times, and supply issues at the plant. The demand is more than ford expected."

Right now, they can't fill the orders they've taken. What happens down the road is another story.
which makes me happy I didn't have to place a deposit with my order which was in mid july
 

Kamuelaflyer

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which makes me happy I didn't have to place a deposit with my order which was in mid july
Our deposits, if any, are paid to the dealers, not FMC. I have no problem with getting my money back from Orchid Isle Ford if need be.

What bothers me intellectually, is a significant number of people with confirmed orders will not get a car anytime in 2021 absent resolution to supply chain issues. There's a problem brewing is all. Problems do get solved though.
 

zhackwyatt

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Our deposits, if any, are paid to the dealers, not FMC. I have no problem with getting my money back from Orchid Isle Ford if need be.

What bothers me intellectually, is a significant number of people with confirmed orders will not get a car anytime in 2021 absent resolution to supply chain issues. There's a problem brewing is all. Problems do get solved though.
If this was really a huge problem, why would they still be taking online orders? If anything, they should move to 2022 reservations.
 

janitorjim

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Our deposits, if any, are paid to the dealers, not FMC. I have no problem with getting my money back from Orchid Isle Ford if need be.

What bothers me intellectually, is a significant number of people with confirmed orders will not get a car anytime in 2021 absent resolution to supply chain issues. There's a problem brewing is all. Problems do get solved though.
oh I don't trust any dealer (no offense to any dealer) to not give me the run around to get the deposit back but for me personally I would like one but don't need one. So basically if I get it in first part of 2021 great but if not move on to finding the 1970s C3 corvette. I was going to wait a few years to get the mach e and I only put in my order now because I have a 2013 explorer with under 50k miles so figured it was good for a trade in plus the tax credit.

Can't see significantly more batteries getting produced by surprise so figure if they are saying 50K is all they can do then that is all they can do. Of course typical business logic. "Sell" more then you got and deal with the aftermath later (airliner logic)
 

Kamuelaflyer

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oh I don't trust any dealer (no offense to any dealer) to not give me the run around to get the deposit back but for me personally I would like one but don't need one. So basically if I get it in first part of 2021 great but if not move on to finding the 1970s C3 corvette. I was going to wait a few years to get the mach e and I only put in my order now because I have a 2013 explorer with under 50k miles so figured it was good for a trade in plus the tax credit.

Can't see significantly more batteries getting produced by surprise so figure if they are saying 50K is all they can do then that is all they can do. Of course typical business logic. "Sell" more then you got and deal with the aftermath later (airliner logic)
There are a certain number of no shows for airline seats. They have it down to a science, but occasionally there are exceptions. I think this was the equivalent. ;)
 

Hank

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I like all the colors except black. The lighter ones gives better contrast against the design elements in the bottom of the body and back. Being all black, we lose that illusion.
In other words: Authenticity means black.:)
 

janitorjim

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There are a certain number of no shows for airline seats. They have it down to a science, but occasionally there are exceptions. I think this was the equivalent. ;)
yeah but seems the over booking is more then the typical no show amount. but in the case of the mach e you could always reopen the orders like they did for FE and not have any delay in builds
 

dbsb3233

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Our deposits, if any, are paid to the dealers, not FMC. I have no problem with getting my money back from Orchid Isle Ford if need be.

What bothers me intellectually, is a significant number of people with confirmed orders will not get a car anytime in 2021 absent resolution to supply chain issues. There's a problem brewing is all. Problems do get solved though.
But that's part of what I way saying... I'm not so sure there's that many confirmed orders. We know many of them are not (since most of Europe and all GTs aren't even ordered yet). Whether actual confirmed orders are really 30k or 40k or 50k (and the rest just reservations and placeholders and projections and double orders) is still anyone's guess. The machdop campaign to drum up sales for more FEs, for instance, makes no sense if they already blew past 50k confirmed order, let alone 80k (unless they're confident they can make more than 50k).

That doesn't mean that some actual orders might not still miss the 50,000 2021MY cut, of course, but I'm not ready to say it's gonna be tons. We could be heading there though. And I hope as Ford takes new orders point-forward, they add those caveats (i.e. "Orders placed at this point could spill over into model year 2022 as demand for 2021's may already be full.").
 

Kamuelaflyer

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But that's part of what I way saying... I'm not so sure there's that many confirmed orders. We know many of them are not (since most of Europe and all GTs aren't even ordered yet). Whether actual confirmed orders are really 30k or 40k or 50k (and the rest just reservations and placeholders and projections and double orders) is still anyone's guess. The machdop campaign to drum up sales for more FEs, for instance, makes no sense if they already blew past 50k confirmed order, let alone 80k (unless they're confident they can make more than 50k).

That doesn't mean that some actual orders might not still miss the 50,000 2021MY cut, of course, but I'm not ready to say it's gonna be tons. We could be heading there though. And I hope as Ford takes new orders point-forward, they add those caveats (i.e. "Orders placed at this point could spill over into model year 2022 as demand for 2021's may already be full.").
Yeah, more information from Ford would be nice. In the meantime, I'll go about recalculating delivery times for my MME based upon never-ending variables while mowing the back 40. At least until the car arrives. :)
 

AndyS_OSU

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I’ve prepared myself to not get a MME. My Premium had an original order number in the 9000s. But I have to close the deal in 2020 to get the tax credit and make this affordable for me. If it's not going to happen that's fine, I'll begrudgingly get into a short term leaSe on something else and see what pops up over the next couple years in the EV sector. But I’d like to know that timeline soon.
 

Paulalex01

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But that's part of what I way saying... I'm not so sure there's that many confirmed orders. We know many of them are not (since most of Europe and all GTs aren't even ordered yet). Whether actual confirmed orders are really 30k or 40k or 50k (and the rest just reservations and placeholders and projections and double orders) is still anyone's guess. The machdop campaign to drum up sales for more FEs, for instance, makes no sense if they already blew past 50k confirmed order, let alone 80k (unless they're confident they can make more than 50k).

That doesn't mean that some actual orders might not still miss the 50,000 2021MY cut, of course, but I'm not ready to say it's gonna be tons. We could be heading there though. And I hope as Ford takes new orders point-forward, they add those caveats (i.e. "Orders placed at this point could spill over into model year 2022 as demand for 2021's may already be full.").
I will guarantee one thing in this guessing game. The sooner you get your order in the sooner you get your car. Remember Rule 177 from the reservation page: "Reservation does not guarantee vehicle for delivery nor priority for ordering a vehicle. See Reservation Terms and Conditions for details."
 



 









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