Yup.This whole production/delivery prediction game strikes me a bit like trying to bet on football games when all we know is how good each team's FG kicker is. As the saying goes... a little knowledge is dangerous.
There's just so many factors we don't know, and even the ones we think we know are anecdotal 2nd hand reports that seem spotty. There's just so many holes. And it keeps changing. And sometimes it doesn't even seem to add up.
It's fun to speculate on it, but I'm becoming less and less confident that we have enough info to really be able to make accurate conclusions.
the only part of the information that genuinely concerns me is this:
"The orders are not For 2022. ... With the actual orders in for 2021 ford knows they can not make enough in 2021 to fill them all. Hence a person said in the call that 2022 is already really at half capacity, with the run times, and supply issues at the plant. The demand is more than ford expected."
Right now, they can't fill the orders they've taken. What happens down the road is another story.