Is the Mach-E really 7 years behind Tesla?

dbsb3233

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Adoption of plug ins is very low in the US outside of Tesla's closed ecology. Don't see a sustainable volume to support EA when VW money runs out.. Maybe they have budgeted enough to keep it going for five years as volume builds.
HAS BEEN very low, yes. That's about to grow significantly in the next few years as more 200+ range models of popular styles and better pricing hit the market. That is, if battery production can keep up.
 

LYTMCQ

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That's about to grow significantly in the next few years as more 200+ range models of popular styles and better pricing hit the market
Sales of EV's in US are low. Even Ford is shipping 60% to EU first. People in US are not that interested in EV's and the models coming are years out. MachE is the only new EV besides Tesla that is going to hit the market this year.

EA is sitting there with $1B in chargers earning nothing. How long can that go on.
 

dbsb3233

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That's the theory. The practice if Tesla is any guide is everybody uses them a lot even those who have home charging. The ability to have a dependable charging network is key. Right now, Mach-E is lacking OR coast coverage and jeopardizing a sale.
It would be the key to getting from 20% market share to 50%. But I think around 20% is within reach with almost no city retail charging at all. For people that have 2 cars (one ICE) and a house with a garage. That's the bulk of the suburbs, where most Americans live.

And that's a ton of potential vehicle sales. Right now market share is about 2%. It would be more if vehicles like the Kona EV and the eNiro were actually available in more than a few states. Those, plus the Mach-e, plus the XC40 Recharge, plus a number of other 200+ mile models that hit the sweet spots for the type of vehicles Americans like will double and triple that share by mid-decade. Add the Rivian, the F-150, the VW, and others too.
 
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eastern refugee

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EA's budget is the $2B that VW agreed to finance as part of their legal settlement. That is mostly spent already with another 200 stations to go.

So EA's network will be about as big as Tesla is currently but no larger.



You'd think after 10 years of saying that every year and getting proven wrong every year would disabuse folks of embarrassing themselves posting these "Tesla's going broke" comments.

The stock market alone should give any one pause on posting this nonsense.
I know Ford is also budging $11.5 mil also for the EV aspect of their business. Currently VW owns EA. I am not sure if Ford is going to go in with them in EA. I do know that the two companies are sharing platforms and other technology aspects. I honestly think long term that EZ with be larger than the Tesla super charger network only because more car manufacturers will be using the same adapters.
 

dbsb3233

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I know Ford is also budging $11.5 mil also for the EV aspect of their business. Currently VW owns EA. I am not sure if Ford is going to go in with them in EA. I do know that the two companies are sharing platforms and other technology aspects. I honestly think long term that EA with be larger than the Tesla super charger network only because more car manufacturers will be using the same adapters.
Agreed. Unless/until Tesla opens themselves up to all EVs and offers CCS nozzles.

It's logical that charging becomes a standalone industry, just like the gasoline/diesel industry. And consumers should want that too, because it creates more competition and more choice. In the long run that will keep prices in check without the hidden subsidies that Tesla buyers pay as part of the vehicle.
 

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It's needs to be going in now to be useful by end of 2020. As far as I know Ford has zero plans to support fast charging network. You would have thought car mfgs would have gotten together and add financing to EA's efforts to compete with Tesla.
It is going in now at all EV certified Ford dealers. They have also announced back in October last they were partnering with EA. Not sure how you can be interested in the Mach E and missed that? https://media.electrifyamerica.com/en-us/releases/82

I finally stopped by my local deal as they haven't contacted me about my reservation. They mentioned this are getting 3 chargers installed. I didn't think about asking what speed, but I am just assuming L3... I would think that if they want to sell vehicles, they will want to demonstrate how quickly the vehicles can charge.... I'll be sure to ask next time I go in, but not in any hurry until I can take a test drive.
 

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I know Ford is also budging $11.5 mil also for the EV aspect of their business. Currently VW owns EA. I am not sure if Ford is going to go in with them in EA. I do know that the two companies are sharing platforms and other technology aspects. I honestly think long term that EZ with be larger than the Tesla super charger network only because more car manufacturers will be using the same adapters.
It is 11.5 billion investment.
 

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It would be the key to getting from 20% market share to 50%.
Even someone with home charging would be hesitant to get an EV they could not drive to the shore in the Summer. That is going to impact a lot of sales.
 

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without the hidden subsidies that Tesla buyers pay as part of the vehicle.
Tesla charges $0.28 - $0.31 per kWh. That’s 2-3 times retail rate much less the commercial rate Tesla pays. Tesla’s ”services” revenue rose $750M with much of that from charging fees. Captive market and high profit and Tesla chargers are packed with lines. I rarely see anyone at the adjacent EVgo or Blinks.
 

buzznwood

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Even someone with home charging would be hesitant to get an EV they could not drive to the shore in the Summer. That is going to impact a lot of sales.
Depending on where you are the problem with a lot of long journeys is that at highway speeds the range really starts to suffer. There are a few hard core teslas owners at work and one of the reasons a few ended up getting a hybrid to do the longer journeys was that when there where a lot of chargers on route spread out of shorter distances doing lots of small quick top offs made a long journey bearable, once you got to places where the distance between the chargers means you ended up needing to do a full charge then it just became a real pain.

It is hard to predict what way it is going to go, but at present rapid charging is not healthy for the battery so doing it the odd time is ok. BEV's in time will have to get multi speed gearboxes as the norm to help with the range at highway speeds. While Improvements to batteries in and ideal world would increase energy density and charge times without degradation, but ultimately only one is really required, with either end up spending 5 mins to get 300 miles, or we take the same amount of time as present and get 900 miles.

With ford offering a home charger you can see that they are going to push the charge at home use it within a 100 / 150 mile radius mentality. While throwing in the ford pass to smooth over those that want to try and drive far, for a lot of people the 300 mile range is enough to cover local trips and commutes so hopefully sales will not be impacted to much.
 

dbsb3233

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Even someone with home charging would be hesitant to get an EV they could not drive to the shore in the Summer. That is going to impact a lot of sales.
A lot, yes, as in that additional 30% as I said. That's what I was accounting for. But I think they can reach 20% of the market with minimal city retail charging. Between cities though (i.e. road trips) it's needed. Which is what EA is well into providing.

I'm one of those 20%. After doing the research, I've concluded the Mach-e will be great as the around-home car but not the road trip car. But that's fine, because I'll continue to have an ICE car in my garage at home too, and a 240v outlet to charge. I'll do virtually no public charging. And 80% of our miles will go on the Mach-e.
 

dbsb3233

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Tesla charges $0.28 - $0.31 per kWh. That’s 2-3 times retail rate much less the commercial rate Tesla pays. Tesla’s ”services” revenue rose $750M with much of that from charging fees. Captive market and high profit and Tesla chargers are packed with lines. I rarely see anyone at the adjacent EVgo or Blinks.
Electricity is only a part of the cost of public charging. The cost of the chargers, installation, and maintenance are likely the bigger cost. Tesla poured a ton early into putting them in. Money that effected their bottom line for cars to. It had to come from somewhere.

Tesla has most of the EVs on the road, so naturally their chargers are busier. As more non-Tesla EVs hit the roads, EA will get more business too. Which will generate more revenue and allow them to offer more competitive pricing.
 

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I think Tesla will continue to build into the price of their cars a premium to build out and maintain the Supercharger Network. Elon Musk has said that the two biggest barriers to new sales are proximity to service centers and Superchargers.

The question to me is, will Ford and others join up to create a US-equivalent charging consortium like they do in Europe with Ionity? Ford and VW are really buddy-buddy these days and appear to be growing ever closer. If there's going to be another OEM partner in EA, I would imagine it would be Ford.

Nissan is already shelling out millions to EVgo to keep CHAdeMO going and expand EVgo's network. As more OEMs rollout EVs, it's in their best interest to see charging networks thrive because the fossil car market is shrinking but EV sales are growing.
 

LYTMCQ

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The question to me is, will Ford and others join up to create a US-equivalent charging consortium like they do in Europe with Ionity?
They aren't so that question is answered. Also the EU government is requiring and subsidiziing the build out of EV infrastructure while in US it is either neglected or actively opposed. The government inaction/opposition in US is matched by the buying public in the US so no push or pull.
 
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