Is the Mach-E really 7 years behind Tesla?

[Nak]

I've been in a Waymo. It drove around the city without any intervention. Handled complex intersections, curves, hills, parking lots without issue.

Tesla, on the other hand, (in a Model 3 with their newest visualizations) showed a crossing walk sign as a stop sign on a clear sunny day. A car next to it as a garbage can. It can't even navigate an open parking lot with smart summon without putting on the brakes for no reason.

Elon promised a Tesla would drive by itself - completely autonomously from New York to Los Angeles in 2017. Three years ago and they haven't been able to come close.

Who is ahead of who again?

I tried to explain the difference between Waymo's approach and Tesla's. Apples and oranges. Waymo's approach is easier to achieve, but more limited in scope. Tesla's approach is mind mindbogglingly more difficult but far more expansive in scope. Waymo's approach is perfect for what they are trying to achieve, but near useless in a privately owned vehicle. Elon is historically very over optimistic when it comes to timeline, but he has always over delivered on performance. No one here--including myself--can even make an informed guess as to whether or not Tesla succeeds with full autonomy. No one here has enough information to make an informed guess. We all have our own opinions; but those opinions are nothing more than wild ass guesses colored by our own biases. I include my own opinion in that camp. I certainly hope Tesla succeeds, because that level of AI would be revolutionary in nature and possibly make the world a better place. That hope obviously colors my opinion; I'd be nothing more than a fool not to recognize that.

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[Nak]

Thanks for proving my point! Yep, overnight is the key word there. L2 works just fine for overnight charging to full.

 

[Nak]

As usual, you show your ignorance of EVs. Pretty obviously you've never owned one. The alternative conclusion that is possible is not complimentary... 20kwh is not even close to the right number. Not even a little bit close. Try again.

If you'd ever actually used a destination charger in the part of the country you claim to be from, you'd know that overcrowding is almost never an issue. And if it is, the front desk usually just calls the other EV owner. Hotels will add more chargers when they deem it is in their best interest, not when they feel a need to satisfy self entitled EV wannabees. Since about 99.8% of all destination chargers are L2, I guess that seems to work best for most folks.

What you can't seem to understand is that the market has spoken and you're just wrong. If you were right, there'd be a few more L3 destination chargers. Or do you think you're just smarter than everyone else? LOL

 

[Nak]

And L2 seems to fulfill that want just fine. Or have you never looked at a Plugshare map?

 

[Nak]

Seriously, do you ever get tired of proving that you're not telling the truth? If you had ever driven a Tesla--which you have shown time and again you haven't--you'd know that the car in your blind spot is red as soon as you use your blinker. And whether or not you use your blinker the car makes a hell of a loud fuss if you try and maneuver towards another vehicle. See, you'd know that if you were telling the truth about owning a Model 3.

You crack me up. Your supposed Model 3 has every issue that has ever been reported on the internet. You assume that because a few people on a forum list an issue with their car, everyone experiences it. So your car has all of these issues. Wow, bad luck for you. Here's a hint: people with a problem tend to post it, everyone else just drives. I'm not saying that Teslas don't have problems, of course they do. But it bends any possible rationality that your 3 has every problem ever brought up on the internet.

And yet you never mention the minor annoyances that Teslas do have. Minor annoyances that don't make it to the internet. Little things that prove Tesla isn't perfect and that shopping for something better is always a good idea. Ken7 is believable for that very reason. You are not.

 

[Scrannel]

More on topic, and FWIW: https://www.teslarati.com/volkswagen-tesla-10-year-headstart/

 

[dbsb3233]

More on topic, and FWIW: https://www.teslarati.com/volkswagen-tesla-10-year-headstart/

I think it's a matter of which direction one is looking. Yes, Tesla had a 7 (or 10) year headstart. But it doesn't mean it will take that long for the others to catch up, because they have the advantage of learning from Tesla's experience, and from utilizing technology that's a decade improved.

For example, take batteries. The LG Chem batteries Ford is STARTING with today are way better than the batteries that Tesla STARTED with a decade ago. That's broader technological advancement that manufacturers can already take advantage of immediately.

Tesla's batteries are still better, but they're probably only 2 years better (looking forward) than what LG Chem already produces today. It shouldn't take another 7-10 years for them to match Tesla's batteries of today.

Tesla is well ahead on autonomous vehicle capability, but frankly, who cares? That's a niche feature for personal cars IMO. Not really that useful for personal car use. The real value of full autonomy is in Uber-like taxi/shuttle fleets, not personal cars.

Tesla's charging network is well ahead, but that gap is closing fast thanks to EA. It won't take them 7-10 years to catch up (and probably pass) Tesla.

 

[eastern refugee]

I think it's a matter of which direction one is looking. Yes, Tesla had a 7 (or 10) year headstart. But it doesn't mean it will take that long for the others to catch up, because they have the advantage of learning from Tesla's experience, and from utilizing technology that's a decade improved.

For example, take batteries. The LG Chem batteries Ford is STARTING with today are way better than the batteries that Tesla STARTED with a decade ago. That's broader technological advancement that manufacturers can already take advantage of immediately.

Tesla's batteries are still better, but they're probably only 2 years better (looking forward) than what LG Chem already produces today. It shouldn't take another 7-10 years for them to match Tesla's batteries of today.

Tesla is well ahead on autonomous vehicle capability, but frankly, who cares? That's a niche feature for personal cars IMO. Not really that useful for personal car use. The real value of full autonomy is in Uber-like taxi/shuttle fleets, not personal cars.

OMGThst was well said.
If I am Ford do I want to reinvent the wheel?? NO Tesla invented the wheel over a long period of time because the wheel did not exist. If I am a ford the first thing I would do is buy several Tesla’s and break them down to see how it works. Find the flaws and improve on it. Sure I could do this on my own but why not add in a partner. Say one who is also a HUGE manufacturer line VW. So now we have 2 mega manufacturers Shari g ideas/technology. Costs are less but the time span is greatly shortened. Tesla May be ahead but not for long. Previously they had zero competition. Now they do. Can Tesla keep improving at the same rate as they have? Maybe but with Ford/VW in the race chances are that it will not be long until all 3 are neck in neck. It also means that Ford can skip some of the issues that Tesla had.
As far as the driving thing goes until ALL cars on the road have it I will not trust it. I will always drive my car because I am afraid that some glitch will happen or the guy in the lane next to me decides to change lanes next to me without looking. I want to choose my fate and not leave it to the hands of a machine until EVERYONE has the same ability. In short I don’t care. As long as it has awesome cruise control and will slow down to a complete stop I am fine. FYI My ford has the advanced cruise and there are those times on a curve where the radar picks up the 18 wheeler to the right and slams on the breaks. It happens. Now you expect me to nap while the car is driving itself??? Ummm no thank you. Stuff happens. If it does I want it to be my fault.

 

[dbsb3233]

Frankly, I don't think it's all that difficult for legacy automakers to make decent BEVs now that the batteries are good enough. That was always the real hurdle. Electric motors are pretty simple. Not a big leap to develop those. Same with software features (other than advanced autonomous, which as I said is not high value in a personal car). Legacy automakers have always been good at making the rest of the car. And are (arguably) still better at it than Tesla.

They just needed good enough batteries, and a few years of development to design the vehicle (like they know how to do well). Ford is creating the Mach-e in less than 3 years, and by all accounts so far, it's gonna be a great vehicle that's already within spitting distance of Telsa's best product. We're about to see a wave of BEVs from legacy automakers in the next few years for the same reason. It was always about getting over the battery hurdle. Now that 200+ miles is routine, the rest just falls into place.

 

[Luffie]

the tesla y will have a heat pump. The Mach e as well?

 

[Scrannel]

What's missing from this conversation is that (depending upon which European country we're talking about) countries have mandated reduction of ICE vehicles. UK will outlaw them altogether after 2035. It seems to me there are, at the moment, only two companies "thinking" ahead: Tesla and GM (possibly VW). Tesla and GM are fixated on battery supply. (Samsung now claims to have a solid-state battery). And, it's a serious issue. As I'm sure you know, Mercedes had to half their production goals on their EV because they just couldn't get batteries. Tesla and GM are building battery factories.

The other issue is that legacy car companies have created a Frankenstein monster with their dealership franchise. States' attempts to prevent Tesla's model from challenging this monster, have been to outlaw Tesla sales (Texas and Connecticut, for example). That's a tactic that is ultimately doomed to failure. But, since 44% of dealer profits come from after-sales service... how do you feed that monster when electric cars just don't need service? Invent service? Outlaw non-service? (Texas even requires electric cars to be smog tested...) So the real head-on is going to happen when legacy manufacturers decide franchise dealers are hurting their sales. Making an electric car is one thing, making the whole "ecosystem" work is another.

My wife is very interested in the Mach. But frankly, after my Tesla buying experience (and one tire-change handled by Tesla: road service + one experience with their Service Center) I will never go back to a legacy dealer.

 

[Ken7]

I tried to explain the difference between Waymo's approach and Tesla's. Apples and oranges. Waymo's approach is easier to achieve, but more limited in scope. Tesla's approach is mind mindbogglingly more difficult but far more expansive in scope. Waymo's approach is perfect for what they are trying to achieve, but near useless in a privately owned vehicle. Elon is historically very over optimistic when it comes to timeline, but he has always over delivered on performance. No one here--including myself--can even make an informed guess as to whether or not Tesla succeeds with full autonomy. No one here has enough information to make an informed guess. We all have our own opinions; but those opinions are nothing more than wild ass guesses colored by our own biases. I include my own opinion in that camp. I certainly hope Tesla succeeds, because that level of AI would be revolutionary in nature and possibly make the world a better place. That hope obviously colors my opinion; I'd be nothing more than a fool not to recognize that.

The unfortunate thing is that many owners paid significant money for a feature that’s never been delivered and probably still won’t for quite some time. Some of these owners have sold or will sell their cars never having gotten the feature they paid for. They may recoup some of this money when they sell, but almost certainly not all of it.

Even when the hardware and software reaches the capability of full autonomy, it will not be easy to get federal approval. When I bought my late 2017 S, this was a $5,000 option (IIRC) and it was still apparent this was something that was a long way. Prior to buying I read countless sarcastic comments on TMC from owners that paid for the feature and were still waiting for its delivery. As you know, attacks on Elon are rampant on TMC. Some are justified and related to his overly optimistic timeframes, but many are not. Hey, he beat the naysayers on the Model Y timing! I’ve defended him on several occasion where I thought owners went overboard. As I‘m sure you know, there are quite a few chronic complainers on TMC. Every post is a negative one.

For me the bottom line was that even if it was delivered, the cost/benefits equation wasn’t there for me. I enjoy driving this car too much to hand it over to a computer.

 

[zhackwyatt]

I tried to explain the difference between Waymo's approach and Tesla's. Apples and oranges. Waymo's approach is easier to achieve, but more limited in scope. Tesla's approach is mind mindbogglingly more difficult but far more expansive in scope. Waymo's approach is perfect for what they are trying to achieve, but near useless in a privately owned vehicle. Elon is historically very over optimistic when it comes to timeline, but he has always over delivered on performance. No one here--including myself--can even make an informed guess as to whether or not Tesla succeeds with full autonomy. No one here has enough information to make an informed guess. We all have our own opinions; but those opinions are nothing more than wild ass guesses colored by our own biases. I include my own opinion in that camp. I certainly hope Tesla succeeds, because that level of AI would be revolutionary in nature and possibly make the world a better place. That hope obviously colors my opinion; I'd be nothing more than a fool not to recognize that.

Yes the approaches are different. I'm just saying one has results, the other doesn't. I just saw an article about using satellite mapping that has potential to remove some limitations of the Waymo method.

And calling that overly optimistic of Elon is misguided in my opinion. Overly optimistic is not, "we will deliver something, for sure, in 1 year time" and yet after 4 years not show anything that is even half what was promised.

 

[dbsb3233]

the tesla y will have a heat pump. The Mach e as well?

No. Not in the 2021 version, anyway. Sounds like it might be on their radar for the future though...

https://www.greencarreports.com/new...-how-project-went-from-milquetoast-to-mustang

The Mach-E doesn’t have a heat pump. Like Tesla vehicles, the Ford electric vehicle skips it entirely, and Heiser hinted that it’s added complexity that might have gotten in the way. “We felt it would be better to put our emphasis on getting the battery range.”

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