Tesla's battery day

JCHLi

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Oh yes, it is very clear to me that you will let your statement stand regardless of what is revealed. Unfortunately.
Well the OP started off by asking if there were "any guesses" so it wouldn't be much of a guess on my part of I just waited to see what was revealed before commenting

At least now there is a record of what I guessed and afterwards, just for fun we can compare how my guesses and anyone else's guesses panned out.
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timbop

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Calling it battery day is an insult to actual battery research, imo.
That is not a "guess", it is a qualitative assessment based on no information. Your willingness to continue to hold that opinion regardless of what is announced is something else.
 

JCHLi

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That is not a "guess", it is a qualitative assessment based on no information. Your willingness to continue to hold that opinion regardless of what is announced is something else.
An opinion shared by a random stranger on a forum in at absence of information seems, imo, seems to pretty much define what a "guess" is.
 

Mach Daddy

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Musk is walking back the Battery Day hype on Twitter. Seems like some of comments here were correct, the reveal is more about production(?). And Musk is saying 2022. I hope this is not true though. I am going with the MME but I love Tesla for pushing others to act.
 

Kamuelaflyer

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Musk is walking back the Battery Day hype on Twitter. Seems like some of comments here were correct, the reveal is more about production(?). And Musk is saying 2022. I hope this is not true though. I am going with the MME but I love Tesla for pushing others to act.
You mean the Wizard of Warm Springs (part of Fremont, California) might possibly, slightly, somewhat, overhyped something? Nah .... ;)
 


dbsb3233

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IMO after 300 miles, range isn't as much of a concern... charging speed is.
I'd say it's more 300 high-speed miles, which is more like 400 "range" miles.

If charging speed is dramatically improved though, yes, range matters less. If charging speed remains slooow, then range matters more (to avoid as many slooow charging stops).
 

Kamuelaflyer

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I wonder what the "sweet spot" for BEV range/charging speed will turn out to be? Given the rather heated discussion in the EA pricing thread (a thread I've done my part in throwing gasoline on the fire), there are a lot of opinions on it. 300-mile range? 500? 300 at 65/70 mph? 0-80% in 20 minutes? 45? Ban all level 3 chargers (OK I made that one up).

Stay tuned for a decade or so for the answer?
 

Yoliber

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I'd say it's more 300 high-speed miles, which is more like 400 "range" miles.

If charging speed is dramatically improved though, yes, range matters less. If charging speed remains slooow, then range matters more (to avoid as many slooow charging stops).
True, people have different needs. Furthest I'll drive is SF or Vegas so for me I only really need 200-250 highway miles. What bothers me the most about my model 3 is how slow it charges after 30-40%. This means the most time efficient way to get to SF would be to have 2-3 stops instead of just having 1 stop.

That trip is going to be much much worse once Tesla starts throttling this car's supercharging speed. The loaner S I had (2018, 75D, 24k miles) was already limited to 60 kW.
 

dbsb3233

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I wonder what the "sweet spot" for BEV range/charging speed will turn out to be? Given the rather heated discussion in the EA pricing thread (a thread I've done my part in throwing gasoline on the fire), there are a lot of opinions on it. 300-mile range? 500? 300 at 65/70 mph? 0-80% in 20 minutes? 45? Ban all level 3 chargers (OK I made that one up).

Stay tuned for a decade or so for the answer?
Assuming that battery weight will always be significant (even if improved), then it does make sense to stop at a balance point for most passenger vehicles rather than putting in enough batteries for 500-600 miles. Diminishing returns on weight, and cost. But given the rather extreme degradation at high speed (unless fixed), 400-450 should really be the "combined" target IMO, not 300. A true 300-350 miles of high-speed interstate range means only needing maybe 2 charging stops in a heavy driving day (maybe 800 miles) is pretty ICE-like and easier for ICE transitioners to stomach. Two 30-60 minute stops isn't too much compromise. 5 or 6 is though.

There's also the factor of bigger vehicles though. Trucks and true SUVs and others will need more battery.
 
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Kamuelaflyer

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Assuming that battery weight will always be significant (even if improved), then it does make sense to stop at a balance point for most passenger vehicles rather than putting in enough batteries for 500-600 miles. Diminishing returns on weight, and cost. But given the rather extreme degradation at high speed (unless fixed), 400-450 should really be the "combined" target IMO, not 300. A true 300-350 miles of high-speed interstate range means only needing maybe 2 charging stops in a heavy driving day (maybe 800 miles) is pretty ICE-like and easier for ICE transitioners to stomach. Two 30-60 minute stops isn't too much compromise. 5 or 6 is though.

There's also the factor of bigger vehicles though. Trucks and true SUVs and others will need more battery.
Back in the day ...

I used to drive from the FedEx hub in Oakland, California to our (then) house on the edge of Fresno. It would be nice to be able to do that without stopping or with a single quick stop on CR-99 while driving at the speed of traffic (70 ish). That was a real 3 hours of driving in an ICE vehicle.
 

ChasingCoral

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I wonder what the "sweet spot" for BEV range/charging speed will turn out to be? Given the rather heated discussion in the EA pricing thread (a thread I've done my part in throwing gasoline on the fire), there are a lot of opinions on it. 300-mile range? 500? 300 at 65/70 mph? 0-80% in 20 minutes? 45? Ban all level 3 chargers (OK I made that one up).

Stay tuned for a decade or so for the answer?
I'll bet @dbsb3233 is right. 300 highway miles (60-70 mph) and faster charging. My one disappointment with Ford is they didn't make the jump to 800-900v.
 

dbsb3233

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Agreed, I doubt it's right around the corner. Although hard to say for sure. The whole globe is working on battery breakthroughs. But it's usually years from lab success to mass-production at economical costs. I'm not expecting dramatic improvement over the next 3 years. Just gradual. But probably at some point this decade.

It's really anybody's guess though.
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