Tesla's battery day

[JCHLi]

So.... How did we do? Did anyone guess correctly?

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[dbsb3233]

https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/...-elon-musk-tabless-range-cathode-cobalt-plaid


At Tesla’s Battery Day event, CEO Elon Musk made some big announcements: the company’s moves toward eliminating cobalt in its batteries, a new Plaid powertrain for the Model S that could get to speeds of 200 mph, and a new cathode plant to streamline its battery production. And, with the new battery technology, Musk has said Tesla will make a $25,000 car.


The socially-distanced outdoor event had Musk and other presenters addressing Tesla shareholders in parked cars, who honked their horns to indicate their approval of the speakers’ remarks— almost like a drive-in movie/shareholders meeting.


Here are the main takeaways from Tesla’s 2020 battery day:

Tabless battery cells will improve Teslas’ range

Tesla plans to manufacture its own “tabless” batteries, which will improve its vehicles’ range and power. The new batteries will be produced in-house, which Musk says will reduce costs and bring the sale price of Tesla electric cars closer to gasoline-powered cars. It’s expected to lower Tesla’s cost per kilowatt hour, a key metric used to measure electric vehicles’ battery packs. The tabless cells (Tesla is removing the tab that connects the cell and what it’s powering), which Tesla is calling the 4680 cells, will make its batteries six times more powerful and increase range by 16 percent.


Tesla currently sources its batteries from Panasonic, and is likely to keep doing so for some time, but moving battery production in house has been on Musk’s to-do list for some time; in 2018 a shortage of those cells added to production delays. Musk has said the pace of battery production at Panasonic had slowed production of both the Model 3 and the Model Y.

Model S Plaid will cost $139,990 and be available in 2021

Musk has been teasing the Plaid powertrain for a while, which will be a step above its Ludicrous model. It will have a range between charges of 520 miles, get from 0-60 mph in under two seconds, and a top speed of 200 mph. The price is listed on Tesla’s website at $139,990. Musk had noted in the past that a Plaid trim level would “cost more than our current offerings,” which it does. It will be available in the Model S in late 2021.

A new cathode plant is coming... eventually

Musk said Tesla will build a new cathode plant for its batteries in North America, part of its quest to reduce supply chain costs and simplify cathode production. It’s also making improvements to its process that will make cathodes 76 percent cheaper, and produce zero wastewater. The company also plans to diversify the cathodes it uses, because of low nickel supplies.


We don’t know where the new cathode plant will be built, but Musk said in July when Tesla announced its next factory would be in Austin, Texas that he would “strongly consider” runner-up city Tulsa, Oklahoma for future projects.

No more cobalt in the cathodes

Tesla plans to eliminate the use of cobalt in its cathodes. Musk has said he wanted to eliminate it entirely in the past — even though Tesla’s existing batteries use very little. Cobalt is often mined under conditions that violate human rights, which has led to a push to find other materials to replace it.


Musk didn’t offer a timeline for when the company will stop using cobalt but said it will make its batteries significantly cheaper.


“It’s absolutely critical that we make cars that people can actually afford,” he said. “Affordability is key to how we scale.”

A $25,000 car is a new goal

Tesla plans to reduce the cost of its battery cells and packs, with an end goal of building a $25,000 electric car. Tesla will hit this goal using its new “tabless” battery cells, and changing the materials inside the cell, which he said should allow Tesla to “halve” the price per kilowatt-hour, Musk said.


This isn’t the first time Musk has predicted that Tesla would dramatically reduce the costs of its electric cars. He first promised a $25,000 EV back in 2018, which he said was possible within three years.

 

[jhalkias]

It doesn't sound to me like anything unexpected or "earthshaking" was announced. Elon has been promising that $25,000 car for awhile.

 

[dbsb3233]

Doesn't sound like anything too earth-shattering. Another super-expensive car for the rich. Eh. The same old goal of an affordable BEV for the masses that will probably take longer than his predictions. Eh.

The new battery is the most noteworthy part. They withheld the most important stat -- energy density. Supposedly 16% more range, but is that relative to the comparable weight of existing batteries? The comparable space it takes up in the vehicle? The same cost?

Sounds like just the gradual improvement we expected.

 

[silverelan]

Tesla says in 2-3 years they will have dropped the cost of batteries by 56%. So a battery pack that right now that costs $10,000 to produce will drop to $4400. That's a good chunk of change.

Tesla says their new vehicle manufacturing process with custom alloys and single-piece casting will also reduce costs.

Whether we see much of these cost savings in the MSRP is another matter.

 

[timbop]

So.... How did we do? Did anyone guess correctly?

A moderate improvement in range from the new battery design, but nothing earth shattering.

I suspect you know that and want to hear this: you were right that nothing amazing was announced.

congratulations.

 

[hybrid2bev]

Tesla says in 2-3 years they will have dropped the cost of batteries by 56%.

That's 2-3 'Elon' years. Which means 4-6 years in reality. But this is a great step forward for electrification, battery costs must come down.

 

[dbsb3233]

Tesla says in 2-3 years they will have dropped the cost of batteries by 56%. So a battery pack that right now that costs $10,000 to produce will drop to $4400. That's a good chunk of change.

Tesla says their new vehicle manufacturing process with custom alloys and single-piece casting will also reduce costs.

Whether we see much of these cost savings in the MSRP is another matter.

While that would of course be huge, I'll believe it when it actually happens. Whenever it may be.

Not that I don't expect it to happen. I think we all assumed that would happen eventually. But the date prediction could just be more Elon over-hyping.

 

[TheSteelRider]

That's 2-3 'Elon' years. Which means 4-6 years in reality. But this is a great step forward for electrification, battery costs must come down.

+1

Remember, the promise that was stated and re-stated multiple times was < $100 / KW by this year (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/0...his-year-100-kwh-tesla-battery-packs-in-2020/). Tesla is somewhere around $150 / KW.

Battery tech is hard. If you go back and dig through the details of the battery day, the 56% comes from optimizations at EVERY STEP from the mine to the end consumer vehicle. Tesla doesn't control mining today, nor do they control all of the battery market today. In fact if you view the presentation again, Tesla themselves will only be capable of producing 150 GW of batteries years from now, they are relying on the TW numbers to be hit by suppliers (which at least partly are out of their control).

I think that battery day was awesome, don't get me wrong. We need this kind of forward-thinking to push BEV tech. But, to say 3 years from now Tesla will have their own mining operation, and their own cathode plant, and that they will redefine the smelting process and other processes such as dry media application. That's a stretch to say the least. 5 years would be minimum, with 10 years probably being the maximum. I hope I'm wrong here, but history would be on the conservative side.

 

[DaveRuns]

https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/...-elon-musk-tabless-range-cathode-cobalt-plaid


At Tesla’s Battery Day event, CEO Elon Musk made some big announcements: the company’s moves toward eliminating cobalt in its batteries, a new Plaid powertrain for the Model S that could get to speeds of 200 mph, and a new cathode plant to streamline its battery production. And, with the new battery technology, Musk has said Tesla will make a $25,000 car.


The socially-distanced outdoor event had Musk and other presenters addressing Tesla shareholders in parked cars, who honked their horns to indicate their approval of the speakers’ remarks— almost like a drive-in movie/shareholders meeting.


Here are the main takeaways from Tesla’s 2020 battery day:

Tabless battery cells will improve Teslas’ range

Tesla plans to manufacture its own “tabless” batteries, which will improve its vehicles’ range and power. The new batteries will be produced in-house, which Musk says will reduce costs and bring the sale price of Tesla electric cars closer to gasoline-powered cars. It’s expected to lower Tesla’s cost per kilowatt hour, a key metric used to measure electric vehicles’ battery packs. The tabless cells (Tesla is removing the tab that connects the cell and what it’s powering), which Tesla is calling the 4680 cells, will make its batteries six times more powerful and increase range by 16 percent.


Tesla currently sources its batteries from Panasonic, and is likely to keep doing so for some time, but moving battery production in house has been on Musk’s to-do list for some time; in 2018 a shortage of those cells added to production delays. Musk has said the pace of battery production at Panasonic had slowed production of both the Model 3 and the Model Y.

Model S Plaid will cost $139,990 and be available in 2021

Musk has been teasing the Plaid powertrain for a while, which will be a step above its Ludicrous model. It will have a range between charges of 520 miles, get from 0-60 mph in under two seconds, and a top speed of 200 mph. The price is listed on Tesla’s website at $139,990. Musk had noted in the past that a Plaid trim level would “cost more than our current offerings,” which it does. It will be available in the Model S in late 2021.

A new cathode plant is coming... eventually

Musk said Tesla will build a new cathode plant for its batteries in North America, part of its quest to reduce supply chain costs and simplify cathode production. It’s also making improvements to its process that will make cathodes 76 percent cheaper, and produce zero wastewater. The company also plans to diversify the cathodes it uses, because of low nickel supplies.


We don’t know where the new cathode plant will be built, but Musk said in July when Tesla announced its next factory would be in Austin, Texas that he would “strongly consider” runner-up city Tulsa, Oklahoma for future projects.

No more cobalt in the cathodes

Tesla plans to eliminate the use of cobalt in its cathodes. Musk has said he wanted to eliminate it entirely in the past — even though Tesla’s existing batteries use very little. Cobalt is often mined under conditions that violate human rights, which has led to a push to find other materials to replace it.


Musk didn’t offer a timeline for when the company will stop using cobalt but said it will make its batteries significantly cheaper.


“It’s absolutely critical that we make cars that people can actually afford,” he said. “Affordability is key to how we scale.”

A $25,000 car is a new goal

Tesla plans to reduce the cost of its battery cells and packs, with an end goal of building a $25,000 electric car. Tesla will hit this goal using its new “tabless” battery cells, and changing the materials inside the cell, which he said should allow Tesla to “halve” the price per kilowatt-hour, Musk said.


This isn’t the first time Musk has predicted that Tesla would dramatically reduce the costs of its electric cars. He first promised a $25,000 EV back in 2018, which he said was possible within three years.

To better provide evidence that nothing was earth-shattering or breaking news....Tesla Stock plummeted over 5% yesterday/this morning after the street determined battery day was "disapointing". With that said, I'll be looking for the Model S Plaid on Turo next year!!

 

[silverelan]

That's 2-3 'Elon' years. Which means 4-6 years in reality. But this is a great step forward for electrification, battery costs must come down.

On the one hand, Tesla seems to be building factories quickly.

On the other, the Plaid Model S is taking two years to come out after its announcement in October 2019 because other cars keep coming out that are faster and go farther.

Roadster was revealed nearly three years ago.

 

[EVer]

So.... How did we do? Did anyone guess correctly?

I think so...

I expect perhaps better energy density, and almost certainly some cost savings (which is why this is aimed at shareholders).

 

[SnBGC]

What I got from the presentation is that Tesla has or very soon will have a solution to its battery supply problem. They are now all set to moderately increase production of the Model 3 and Model Y as well as push ahead with the cyber truck and semi.

The semi is the key IMO. The roadblock there has been battery supply. There is FAR greater demand for an electric semi than ANY other type of EV. All one has to do is look at Ford to see how important the medium to heavy truck is for business. Fleet owners look at true operating costs more than anything else. If Tesla can bring viable medium and heavy duty trucks to market that will mean more to their bottom line than S, 3, X & Y put together.

My $0.02

 

[MattG]

Lots of cool ideas, but they need to demonstrate execution. They‘ve already unveiled three new models which have yet to start shipping (maybe we should call that four, since the plaid model s is a big upgrade?).

 

[JCHLi]

That's 2-3 'Elon' years. Which means 4-6 years in reality. But this is a great step forward for electrification, battery costs must come down.

And since everyone else is "7 years behind" it will be 13 years before anyone else gets there. So depressing!

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