Tesla's battery day

[SnBGC]

The class 6 we have on order has two variants for battery size that predict 100 miles of range for the standard battery or 200 miles for the larger unit. It's really just barely adequate for a work truck.

I work for a lighting company with branches in California and Arizona. We have about 175 trucks in our fleet. We would buy the Tesla semi immediately if it were available. I do not prefer Tesla for my personal vehicle but for commercial use they could be very attractive. Just having our company logo on the side of a Tesla medium or heavy duty truck would do wonders for our marketing image. Being a lighting company that provides energy savings solutions and rolling up to the customer's property with a Tesla electric trucks would make our customers very happy.

Right now we have to be careful that we don't idle the diesel engines too long or leak fluid all over their plaza etc. An electric truck minimizes those issues quite a bit.

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[RonTCat]

I don't think Musk really said when he was going to get to a $25,000 EV. California and the UK did: 2035. They picked that date because they thought that was when EVs would become affordable to the masses. If it's not affordable, the masses will vote for someone who will extend the date.

If gasoline demand goes down, the economics say prices will too. That makes the EV adoption curve that much harder to climb. Gasoline suppliers will adjust to stay competitive with electricity prices. They aren't just going to roll over and say "we're out of business". We are still a ways off from the tipping point. It might take a large government effort on the scale of "Rural Electrification" to get enough charging infrastructure in place to finally tip things to the EV side. ICE isn't dead for a long time.

 

[SnBGC]

Not really. Only the Tesla is unique enough that the average customer would identify it as an electric vehicle. The Kenworth and others look just like a regular truck. We have two electric Transit Vans. Nobody says anything about them because they look like a normal vehicle.

Our fleet is our primary advertising method. When I meet new people and they find out who I work for the most common response is "Oh yeah! I've seen your trucks everywhere. They look great." Same with customers. We have customers that call us because they see our trucks working at their competitors and they want the same image for themselves. A nice fleet is huge for marketing.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

Still waiting for my robtotaxi. I expect it will arrive any decade now.

 

[trutolife27]

I don't think Musk really said when he was going to get to a $25,000 EV. California and the UK did: 2035. They picked that date because they thought that was when EVs would become affordable to the masses. If it's not affordable, the masses will vote for someone who will extend the date.

If gasoline demand goes down, the economics say prices will too. That makes the EV adoption curve that much harder to climb. Gasoline suppliers will adjust to stay competitive with electricity prices. They aren't just going to roll over and say "we're out of business". We are still a ways off from the tipping point. It might take a large government effort on the scale of "Rural Electrification" to get enough charging infrastructure in place to finally tip things to the EV side. ICE isn't dead for a long time.

I agree with rontcat, but he did say within the next three years tesla will have a 25,000 EV. So he did kinda put his neck out there on it like the 30,000 car that didn't happen.

 

[SnBGC]

That would be cool.

 

[GoGoGadgetMachE]

I haven't seen anyone mention two points yet:

1. The 56% number isn't as impressive as it might seem. From How Tesla plans to make batteries cheap enough for a $25,000 car | Ars Technica (arstechnica.com) : " While a 56-percent reduction in battery costs over three years might seem like a big improvement—and it would be—it would represent a pace of progress only modestly faster than what the broader battery industry has enjoyed in recent years. "
2. "Battery Day" was also the annual shareholder day. By that metric, it was a massive failure. $TSLA was already dropping due to the walk-back tweets, and it continued to nosedive today, way more than the markets as a whole. Compare:
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

I'm going to step back before this grenade explodes.

 

[trutolife27]

I haven't seen anyone mention two points yet:

1. The 56% number isn't as impressive as it might seem. From How Tesla plans to make batteries cheap enough for a $25,000 car | Ars Technica (arstechnica.com) : " While a 56-percent reduction in battery costs over three years might seem like a big improvement—and it would be—it would represent a pace of progress only modestly faster than what the broader battery industry has enjoyed in recent years. "
2. "Battery Day" was also the annual shareholder day. By that metric, it was a massive failure. $TSLA was already dropping due to the walk-back tweets, and it continued to nosedive today, way more than the markets as a whole. Compare:
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

I'm going to step back before this grenade explodes.

RBC analyst Joseph Spak also thought the event didn’t live up to expectations. “Elon [Musk] indicated that every car company will have long-range electric cars and eventually everyone will have autonomy,” Spak wrote. He thinks that could be a tacit admission that other auto makers are catching Tesla on battery technology. He rates shares the equivalent of Sell and has a $290 price target.

 

[JCHLi]

I haven't seen anyone mention two points yet:

1. The 56% number isn't as impressive as it might seem. From How Tesla plans to make batteries cheap enough for a $25,000 car | Ars Technica (arstechnica.com) : " While a 56-percent reduction in battery costs over three years might seem like a big improvement—and it would be—it would represent a pace of progress only modestly faster than what the broader battery industry has enjoyed in recent years. "
2. "Battery Day" was also the annual shareholder day. By that metric, it was a massive failure. $TSLA was already dropping due to the walk-back tweets, and it continued to nosedive today, way more than the markets as a whole. Compare:
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

I'm going to step back before this grenade explodes.

The scary thing about this is that it still has an extremely long way to fall. The crazy run up it had so far in 2020 will require a lot more correction.

 

[SnBGC]

The scary thing about this is that it still has an extremely long way to fall. The crazy run up it had so far in 2020 will require a lot more correction.

Yep. I sold my shares shortly after they split. Income gain is enough for a very sizable down payment on my priority never FE. How ironic is that?

 

[ChasingCoral]

The class 6 we have on order has two variants for battery size that predict 100 miles of range for the standard battery or 200 miles for the larger unit. It's really just barely adequate for a work truck.

I work for a lighting company with branches in California and Arizona. We have about 175 trucks in our fleet. We would buy the Tesla semi immediately if it were available. I do not prefer Tesla for my personal vehicle but for commercial use they could be very attractive. Just having our company logo on the side of a Tesla medium or heavy duty truck would do wonders for our marketing image. Being a lighting company that provides energy savings solutions and rolling up to the customer's property with a Tesla electric trucks would make our customers very happy.

Right now we have to be careful that we don't idle the diesel engines too long or leak fluid all over their plaza etc. An electric truck minimizes those issues quite a bit.

I would hope Tesla produces their trucks more like the Model S quality than the MS and MY quality. While diehard Tesla fans may overlook things like bumpers falling off, I don't think industry buyers would be so tolerant.

You're a potential buyer, @SnBGC, what do you think?

 

[macchiaz-o]

I'm almost half an hour into this discussion... Seems share-worthy:

 

[EVer]

is also interesting.

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