Tesla's battery day

[JCHLi]

I think so...

I'd give you the win on this then!

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[Kamuelaflyer]

"Tesla says ..." Everything that follows from them is a mixture of hype, lies, exagerations, half truths and facts.

 

[EVer]

I don't know if they spoke in magnitudes. Industry analysts have ballparked Tesla's costs at about $130/kWh. That would be indicative of a ~$72 reduction per kWh, if correct.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...margins-an-interactive-analysis/#77e788035036

 

[dbsb3233]

I was shaking my head at that one too. Like we need another super-expensive BEV for rich people???

 

[jparduhn70]

I don't see most people ever needing 0-60 times <2s, or even that much HP during daily driving, and I don't understand how anyone can entertain paying over $100K for a depreciable asset for it either. I suppose it's just another niche offering for people that have those kinds of $$$ to burn and want/need another toy. To each his/her own, I suppose.

 

[Mach Daddy]

I actually liked the presentation. But that's from an engineering perspective. While I admire and appreciate the risk that Tesla is taking by pushing battery innovation forward, I am not sure that's the correct business decision. It's the equivalent of putting all your eggs in one basket as you can only chase so many technologies on your own. And as the presentation showed, there are still lots of ifs in their 3 year timeline.

I don't think it was reported, but Elon also talked about how easy designing a car is relative to the industrial engineering processes of manufacturing and how Tesla's future advantages will come from optimizing production. I think the big car manufacturers probably let out a collective "duh!" during that portion. Henry Ford knew that over 100 years ago.

3 years. By then Ford will have already released the Mach E GT Performance Shelby JBL Triple Platinum Edition.

 

[ChasingCoral]

+1

Remember, the promise that was stated and re-stated multiple times was < $100 / KW by this year (https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/0...his-year-100-kwh-tesla-battery-packs-in-2020/). Tesla is somewhere around $150 / KW.

Battery tech is hard. If you go back and dig through the details of the battery day, the 56% comes from optimizations at EVERY STEP from the mine to the end consumer vehicle. Tesla doesn't control mining today, nor do they control all of the battery market today. In fact if you view the presentation again, Tesla themselves will only be capable of producing 150 GW of batteries years from now, they are relying on the TW numbers to be hit by suppliers (which at least partly are out of their control).

I think that battery day was awesome, don't get me wrong. We need this kind of forward-thinking to push BEV tech. But, to say 3 years from now Tesla will have their own mining operation, and their own cathode plant, and that they will redefine the smelting process and other processes such as dry media application. That's a stretch to say the least. 5 years would be minimum, with 10 years probably being the maximum. I hope I'm wrong here, but history would be on the conservative side.

The other thing to keep in mind is improvements in battery density or reduction in problematic battery contents often don't result in reduced cost. The result is we will see high density solutions such as solid state batteries sooner in high-price vehicles, while cheaper battery technology will flow from high-price toward low-price vehicles.

 

[SnBGC]

Yes. We have some on order from Kenworth. Range is an issue for us so they will be limited to local duty.

 

[EVer]

3 years. By then Ford will have already released the Mach E GT Performance Shelby JBL Triple Platinum Edition.

KING RANCH

 

[trutolife27]

The 25,000 dollar tesla. hmm same ole Elon musk.
Reason ford does not want to go all-in on making batteries right now.
The tech is changing too fast.
The only thing that is coming out soon is a 130,000 dollar EV car that not many people can afford.
Like Elon said many possibilities in the coming years, but not right now.

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