Update on Mach-E launch progress from engineering friends in Mexico

[agoldman]

The Model Y is their F-150 in terms of top-seller. For Ford, the Mach-E is 1% of sales, so going "all in" on it like Tesla wouldn't make business sense.

"All in" is what is is eventually going to take to move in on Tesla's parade. Tesla didn't get to where it is in market share by tip toeing around. That said, in my opinion, none of the current or 2021 upcoming EV offerings have any chance on taking too much of Tesla's share anytime soon. We'll see how mach e does for starters, but it's early in the game.

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[JamieGeek]

"All in" is what is is eventually going to take to move in on Tesla's parade. Tesla didn't get to where it is in market share by tip toeing around. That said, in my opinion, none of the current or 2021 upcoming EV offerings have any chance on taking too much of Tesla's share anytime soon. We'll see how mach e does for starters, but it's early in the game.

Yeah that is the thing: Any new EV coming down the line will really take away ICE sales, not Tesla sales. Which is kind of the point.

 

[malba2366]

Perhaps someone could enlightenment me as to why Ford is not ramping up production for 2021 MME’s? Perhaps expanding to a second assembly line at the same plant, that has been reportedly earmarked for a new BEV based on the MME platform?

The reviews have been impressive. The excitement as we all can attest has been astronomical. 50k in 1 model year is simply not enough to meet the demand. As you all know I am a Ford fanboy and despise T. But they rolled out 84k MY’s last year. Not even a full year of production.

I am aware supply chain, especially for batteries and now microchips are at a premium, but if they truly want to be serious about EV’s they need to take the risk. $9 per share vs $808 per share...which one takes risks and which one doesn’t? I really hope Ford wakes up and truly invests in the MME and make it It’s flagship BEV sooner rather than later. 50k vehicles is a joke with this much press and excitement. Time to take advantage in a big way.

The battery orders were placed years out. LG doesn’t have any spare capacity at the moment. Ford initially planned this as a compliance car, and the battery orders were placed accordingly. They changed to a vehicle that will sell on its own merits, at that point it was probably not possible to secure tons of additional batteries.

 

[Crilly]

Is the battery the last thing to install?

 

[MailGuy]

Is the battery the last thing to install?

Nowhere close. Battery actually adds structural strength and is in place long before body is installed on top of it.

Edit:

Here's the "skateboard" with battery and drivetrain components assembled:

Here's the body shell and dash separate from drive train:

Here's the battery/drivetrain joined to the body with seats being added (notice there are still no doors attached or tires, or ...):

 

[BlueMach]

Nowhere close. Battery actually adds structural strength and is in place long before body is installed on top of it.

Huh? It's a unibody car. The battery can't be "in place" unless it's bolted to the body, that's its place. The battery just bolts up from the bottom to the complete welded and painted body, just like the engine bolts up from the bottom to the complete welded and painted body on a Bronco Sport, Escape, etc. Battery adds crash structure, but the car isn't gonna fall apart without it installed.

 

[Popeye]

The battery orders were placed years out. LG doesn’t have any spare capacity at the moment. Ford initially planned this as a compliance car, and the battery orders were placed accordingly. They changed to a vehicle that will sell on its own merits, at that point it was probably not possible to secure tons of additional batteries.

yeah I think batteries are probably the main hinderance. I remember they talked about using the same batteries for both the MME and the Transit. They essentially were able to reduce the cost of the batteries by using a full production line output at LG Chem in Poland.

Don’t you think it’s a little strange that they had the forethought to scrap the compliance car design. At the same time they didn’t bet on themselves enough to secure 2 assembly lines with LG Chem?
From what I have read the transit is a smash hit for its fleet market. So much so they are spending the time and money to create fleet management software for it. There are a ton of companies looking to “go green” with their delivery vehicles. At least outside looking in, it would appear the e-transit will be a smash hit as well.

2 lines at full capacity would seem to be totally relevant. I know hindsight is always 20-20, there are so many factors to weigh and I am definitely over simplifying them. Not to mention the fact that times have changed rapidly and the market for these are substantially more than I am sure anyone anticipated.

But to me, it just seems like they knew the e-transit demand, as well as the fact compliance car plans were out the window. But didn’t bet enough on themselves to secure the supply.

I hope they are not making the same mistake with eF150. They are making some really exciting vehicles now. They have done an incredible job making the right vehicles for the markets they are in. I just wish they could take better advantage of it.

Also one major factor I glanced over was the impact of the pandemic, which is definitely little thing. Just really excited to see all that Ford has done. The future looks so bright for Ford.

 

[GoGoGadgetMachE]

"All in" is what is is eventually going to take to move in on Tesla's parade. Tesla didn't get to where it is in market share by tip toeing around. That said, in my opinion, none of the current or 2021 upcoming EV offerings have any chance on taking too much of Tesla's share anytime soon. We'll see how mach e does for starters, but it's early in the game.

Yeah that is the thing: Any new EV coming down the line will really take away ICE sales, not Tesla sales. Which is kind of the point.

These are both "tea leaves", opinion kind of statements. What I'm about to say is also opinion, but with supporting evidence.

Tesla disagrees with you. They are scared out of their minds right now no matter what they say or how the stock market reacts. Their actions make this clear.

It's why they are forcing garbage cars out the door to hit an arbitrary "shipped vehicle" benchmark, and it's why they are constantly making announcements that clearly target competitors. After the Lucid announcement, there was an almost-immediate "faster performance" Tesla announcement. After the ID.4 announcement, Tesla almost-immediately announced a price cut. After it was well-known that an electric F-series was coming, Tesla did their (disastrous [*]) Cybertruck announcement.

They just introduced the "standard range" Model Y that they said was never coming so they could get something with a lower price out the door, and they've added a nearly-useless third row to it just to say it exists (and at an idiotically high price!).

They are 100% in reactive mode at this point and what they are reacting to is BEV competition, real and perceived.

As far as "all in" goes, nobody making ICE at any volume today is going to be able to flip to "all BEV" because battery supplies are too constrained. Ford's the closest of large-by-volume manufacturers at this point, with putting the Mustang and F-150 names on the line, but GM is in theory moving there as well.

Further, the reality is, there are buyers that are going to be holdouts. That's somewhat generational, and somewhat financial - BEVs are too expensive right now to realistically displace all ICE (show me a BEV that can compete with this, a brand new car you can buy on a lot for under $14K:

) and there's a place in the market for this price point.

Will the world be all-BEV, someday? Of course. But that's a long term thing, and that move is going to cause Tesla to have actual competition that will take away sales from them. Until less than 12 months ago, there hasn't been anything close to competition for Tesla. 12 months from now, there will be multiple competitive vehicles that will be available.

There's multiple cross-shopping threads on this very site. Every single person that is in those threads and saying "I chose a Mach-E over a Model Y" - even if it's literally one person (it's more than that) - is taking a sale from Tesla.

[*] disastrous because everybody made fun of how it looked and of course the window shatter thing... sure a lot of people loaned Tesla $100 but it was only $100 which for literally anyone remotely in the market for a brand new pickup truck is likely sitting around in a bank account or investment account, a rounding error. any objective evaluation of those deposits is going to end with "but this is meaningless."

 

[jhalkias]

These are both "tea leaves", opinion kind of statements. What I'm about to say is also opinion, but with supporting evidence.

Tesla disagrees with you. They are scared out of their minds right now no matter what they say or how the stock market reacts. Their actions make this clear.

It's why they are forcing garbage cars out the door to hit an arbitrary "shipped vehicle" benchmark, and it's why they are constantly making announcements that clearly target competitors. After the Lucid announcement, there was an almost-immediate "faster performance" Tesla announcement. After the ID.4 announcement, Tesla almost-immediately announced a price cut. After it was well-known that an electric F-series was coming, Tesla did their (disastrous [*]) Cybertruck announcement.

They just introduced the "standard range" Model Y that they said was never coming so they could get something with a lower price out the door, and they've added a nearly-useless third row to it just to say it exists (and at an idiotically high price!).

They are 100% in reactive mode at this point and what they are reacting to is BEV competition, real and perceived.

As far as "all in" goes, nobody making ICE at any volume today is going to be able to flip to "all BEV" because battery supplies are too constrained. Ford's the closest of large-by-volume manufacturers at this point, with putting the Mustang and F-150 names on the line, but GM is in theory moving there as well.

Further, the reality is, there are buyers that are going to be holdouts. That's somewhat generational, and somewhat financial - BEVs are too expensive right now to realistically displace all ICE (show me a BEV that can compete with this, a brand new car you can buy on a lot for under $14K:

) and there's a place in the market for this price point.

Will the world be all-BEV, someday? Of course. But that's a long term thing, and that move is going to cause Tesla to have actual competition that will take away sales from them. Until less than 12 months ago, there hasn't been anything close to competition for Tesla. 12 months from now, there will be multiple competitive vehicles that will be available.

There's multiple cross-shopping threads on this very site. Every single person that is in those threads and saying "I chose a Mach-E over a Model Y" - even if it's literally one person (it's more than that) - is taking a sale from Tesla.

[*] disastrous because everybody made fun of how it looked and of course the window shatter thing... sure a lot of people loaned Tesla $100 but it was only $100 which for literally anyone remotely in the market for a brand new pickup truck is likely sitting around in a bank account or investment account, a rounding error. any objective evaluation of those deposits is going to end with "but this is meaningless."

Yup. I concur. Tesla is worried and trying not to lose their edge. REAL competition is coming, and they know it. Elon lies. A LOT. GM's battery factory in Lordstown is coming along, and soon the EV world and buyers will be judging Tesla a lot differently. I am one of those buyers that has wanted an EV for a long time - but do NOT want a Tesla. The Focus Electric was too compliance and not enough range. As Ford hits the market this year, I think they WILL be taking sales from Tesla. And it is just beginning.

 

[timbop]

Don’t you think it’s a little strange that they had the forethought to scrap the compliance car design. At the same time they didn’t bet on themselves enough to secure 2 assembly lines with LG Chem?
From what I have read the transit is a smash hit for its fleet market.

It is so easy to quarterback on monday mornings, isn't it? I mean, in 8 years they sold 126,000 EV's so they should have known that 50,000 batteries for the 2021 mach E wouldn't be enough.

 

[dbsb3233]

"All in" is what is is eventually going to take to move in on Tesla's parade. Tesla didn't get to where it is in market share by tip toeing around. That said, in my opinion, none of the current or 2021 upcoming EV offerings have any chance on taking too much of Tesla's share anytime soon. We'll see how mach e does for starters, but it's early in the game.

Tesla is on pace to sell about 750k vehicles/year, on the way to 1M. Ford sells 5 million/year. Ford alone could surpass Tesla's BEV total by just jumping to 20% of their sales. I wouldn't call that "all in", just "20% in". Which is where I suspect it's heading.

Although I do expect Ford to be heavy in PHEV too. 5 years from now, I could see Ford's sales being something like 40% ICE, 40% PHEV, and 20% BEV. That would be a million BEVs/yr and 3 million EVs total.

 

[JamieGeek]

Yup. I concur. Tesla is worried and trying not to lose their edge. REAL competition is coming, and they know it. Elon lies. A LOT. GM's battery factory in Lordstown is coming along, and soon the EV world and buyers will be judging Tesla a lot differently. I am one of those buyers that has wanted an EV for a long time - but do NOT want a Tesla. The Focus Electric was too compliance and not enough range. As Ford hits the market this year, I think they WILL be taking sales from Tesla. And it is just beginning.

Ah but the Focus Electric was sooo much fun. I miss that little guy LOL.

 

[jhalkias]

Ah but the Focus Electric was sooo much fun. I miss that little guy LOL.

I got to drive one once. The salesman for our electricity supplier at my previous job had one. I was smitten with it, but there was almost zero availability. He had to go to another state to get his. It was fun to drive. Which is why I just cannot wait for my Mach E.

 

[JamieGeek]

I got to drive one once. The salesman for our electricity supplier at my previous job had one. I was smitten with it, but there was almost zero availability. He had to go to another state to get his. It was fun to drive. Which is why I just cannot wait for my Mach E.

The Focus Electric was an "order only" car: No dealer had inventory. My dealer had a single demo unit that I was able to take for a ride prior to ordering ours (they wouldn't let me buy that one at the time). Beyond about 2014 or so dealers didn't even have any demo units it was just order only.

Granted the Mach-E is taking far far longer than my Focus Electric did (about 6 weeks).

 

[dbsb3233]

Yeah that is the thing: Any new EV coming down the line will really take away ICE sales, not Tesla sales. Which is kind of the point.

I semi-agree with that. Yes, consumer demand for decent BEVs with sufficient range is higher than supply right now. And rising fast. The model Y, the Mach-E, and others benefit from that. Rising tide floats all boats.

But there's a limit to that. I don't think pure BEV demand will reach as deep as some think it will, at least until batteries get much better. Their limitations will keep most people away that don't have a house+garage to charge in overnight, or that don't have a 2nd car. Or that frequently drive long distances. Many will opt for PHEV instead, or simply stick with ICE.

After this current surge where legacy automakers crank out strong Tesla competitors (like the Mach-E), I could see the supply-demand balance leveling off, at which point Tesla could see serious degradation in sales if they don't improve their well-known problems.

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