PBP for Mach-E

[UW2]

Well, here's the way I justify the FE to myself, probably not logical:
- MSRP of about 60,000
- Credits of about 11,000
- Yearly savings over ICE of about 1500 (probably too high)
- Residual value of 40% of MSRP (!) after 5 years
Somehow that all adds up to something positive in my mind!

Sponsored

 

[txaggies07]

I read the financial news regularly>

https://www.texasstandard.org/stori...re-facing-an-investigation-into-price-fixing/

https://www.mercurynews.com/2007/08/21/lawsuit-accuses-oil-companies-of-price-fixing/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timwor...into-oil-market-price-fixing/?sh=c6c838233c40

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-price-manipulation-and-slippery-results-11587571944

Those were accusations and I know one of them to be false. There are true stories of it, so try linking those next time.

 

[Rotting Piñata]

I decided a few years ago that I wanted to go electric with my next vehicle. When I saw the MME, I knew that was what I wanted.
I tried sitting down to figure out when it would be most optimal to trade in my current car and, at the end of the day, I just didn't care. My '15 Avalon Hybrid runs well (low maintenance costs) and is efficient (40mpg), but it's not satisfying at all to drive. I also work from home and barely drive 30 miles per week. Buying any new car at this point is not economical.
For me, buying a premium MME-4x is based on everything but the economy of it. I'm looking forward to finally getting mine and taking my kids for acceleration test rides!

 

[Dr. J]

No but why would I? I don't think that's a proper comparison, frankly. When are you going to use that acceleration? The track?

 

[Dr. J]

Cars are not a financial investment in the sense of "payback" or a Return On Investment. They are a tool, nothing more, nothing less. They may or may not also have psychological characteristics for you. If you're considering a BEV for reasons which include environmental considerations, those are going to hard to factor into your personal decision.

If your decision-making process on a car is all financial whether that's an ICE vehicle or a BEV, then go for it. If you do not make a purchase decision for an ICE vehicle based upon "payback," ask yourself why that it is.
Tools cost money

PBP vs. ICE. That is, if you were in the market for a new car today, and you had a few options - although the EV is cheaper to drive, it's also substantially more expensive to buy - at how many miles does that per mile cost pay for the added price? And yes that will vary depending on what you choose as a comparable vehicle.

 

[Dr. J]

I'd be interested in what you compared for costs of the vehicles. This is all USA prices. I priced out a Honda CR-V, as that's much more in line with the Mach E. (You even say something about the Escape instead of the Ecoboost, so you probably agree with me there.) After just the federal tax incentive, the Mach E costs $7k more. Using your math, that's only 350k miles. Not close to your 900k. In order to get the same features/options, I had to go with the top trim CR-V, no AWD, and a standard range RWD Premium Mach-E.

You also dismiss out of hand maintenance costs. I'm not really sure why. Do some research about regularly scheduled maintenance on ICE cars and BEVs. Things from oil to brakes.

I'm not saying BEVs are super cheap compared to ICE cars. I'm not saying it's cheaper to own a Mach-E over a CR-V. Yes, even with maintenance thrown in, most people say it takes years to "break even" with an ICE equivalent. But you seem to push things to an extreme.

I would turn the question back on the OP. Are you trying to justify owning an ICE car over a BEV? Are you an ICE "fanboy" trying to convince people not to buy electric?

Well, AWD is a must around here, so anything I am comparing here is all AWD, and long range as well. I realize that adds cost to the MME, but how could I compare a vehicle with ~ 2XX range vs. a solid 3XX if not closer to 400 mile range? I didn't break it down to see if the AWD option is more expensive for the MME or ICE though, though there may be a difference.

I see the CRV as larger than the MME and the HRV more comparable size-wise.

As I said previously, I was interested in this as Teslas look ugly to me and the whole fanboy culture really rubs me wrong, on top of things like bumpers falling off in the rain, roofs ripping off, and having to replace drive units and batteries multiple times "under warranty". I am also a Ford shareholder and can benefit from X here. I'm not the type of person that keeps their ears to the ground waiting for stuff like this, just survey the market when I need to be in it.

 

[Kamuelaflyer]

PBP vs. ICE. That is, if you were in the market for a new car today, and you had a few options - although the EV is cheaper to drive, it's also substantially more expensive to buy - at how many miles does that per mile cost pay for the added price? And yes that will vary depending on what you choose as a comparable vehicle.

Depends upon the person and their circumstances. I did not do any comparisons with an ICE vehicle, for example, because I wasn't looking for an ICE vehicle. I had certain criteria I needed to be met in a BEV. That's all I was looking for beyond the intangibles.

If someone is simply looking for a new car and don't particularly care which vehicle that is, I can understand the calculations. But in that case, I'd expect the same financial calculation to be made between differing ICE vehicles as well.

 

[Dr. J]

Acceleration - neato factor but basically unusable. I doubt very many EV owners are headed to the track every weekend. For that matter I never really understood the obsession with HP for street cars - it's like buying some $70k truck when you have zero intention to ever use it as such.

Low center of gravity - Again, track thing. I've owned a MINI Cooper in the past, btw. Are you doing some super tight corners on an offramp or something?

Interior noise - not aware this is a huge deal?

Fuels in your garage rather than at a gas station. - mildly attractive for me, but also a detriment (but that's an EV thing.... meaning refueling away from home requires a bit of planning)

Frunk - but smaller rear end. I don't see the Frunk here really being of much use, frankly. Probably store some tow straps or something there. Who all is going tailgating with this to use it as a cooler?

Lower emissions - could care less

Power available for appliances (some models) - easy bolt on to any car (in fact I have a few inverters at home right now)

Tax credits - already included in PBP calcs. As I said in my state there are ZERO state or utility incentives for this, which is a shame

HOV access (some jurisdictions) - doesn't apply to me

Renewable fuel vs limited - don't care

 

[PeeCee]

Yes I'm new here, so sorry for the run-on post but I have a genuine question: Those that are buying this, what drove the purchase decision, and did you run any sort of numbers on payback?

I'm hoping that I don't get a bunch of, frankly, fanboy responses, because it seems whenever I ask that in a Tesla forum (or in any forum with Tesla owners), they tend to bend over backwards to justify their purchase as being financially sound, when in fact it isn't. If you like a car for the tech, that's fine, just like you're not buying some high end sportscar thinking it's going to be cheaper than a 4 cyl to drive - but don't lie to yourself either.

Every time I am in the market for a new car I give EV's (and other technologies) a chance, but they always fail the first bar - payback. That is, let's run some rough numbers on how long it will take the EV to pay for its premium based on cost per mile driven. If it's close or reasonable, then we can include other factors like insurance (seems to be hit an miss, as reports have, for example, Tesla insurance to either be normal or very expensive), maintenance (which I think the EV fanboys tend to over exaggerate), etc.

It seems I live in an odd area where gas is fairly inexpensive and electricity the opposite. Right now I can fill up for about $2.05/gal,. Meanwhile, electricity (TOU rates, meaning the absolute best it's going to get) is about $0.171/kWh (non-TOU is $0.195 and TOU peak is $0.247!). Using that and stated efficiencies for certain vehicles I can get a cost/mile - for the Mach-E it's about $0.056/mile. For an ICE that gets 28 mpg (e.g. Honda HR-V, which I would consider a comparably-sized vehicle) that cost per mile is $0.075/mile using $2.10/gal gas. That gap is $0.0192/mile. So, for 100,000 miles that's $1917.21, or let's call it an even $2000 for every 100k miles driven.

Immediately this should raise some flags, as the EV premium is far more than $2000, and most would consider even a 100k PBP too long (in industry, a rule of thumb is 2 years, and for me that would be more like 40k miles). Indeed, running those numbers, not including taxes, insurance differences or "maintenance" BUT including tax credits, puts the PBP for the Mach-E Premium at nearly 900,000 miles. No amount of adjusting for "maintenance" or other costs is going to bring this down to the point where an argument can be made. [using an Escape under the same circumstances, gives a PBP around 750k miles]

I'm just wondering if I am far off here, or perhaps everyone lives in an area where gas is crazy expensive and electricity cheap (or free, e.g. solar)? Or, it could be that no one cares about the cost difference and they just like the car. That's fine too.

Here's my situation:

I drive to work on a daily basis (well.. before COVID, been WFH for the last year). My family has also gotten bigger. I have 2 kids now. My car was 10 years old and it was a sports car (Lancer Ralliart 2.0 Turbo). My work is about 57km from home. So back and forth, that's 114km a day / 5 days a week. I would have to gas 1 - 2 times a week if I would travel on the week-ends to see family home etc.. The car required to have Super in it, so it would cost me about 50-60$ everytime I gassed (In Canadian Dollars). Since it was 1-2 times a week. I would spend on average between 200 - 300$ a month on gas alone for travel.

Because of the family getting bigger, I was looking at a small SUV. I started looking at Honda CR-Vs, Toyota Rav4, etc.. Buying one of those cars would still come around 500-600$ a month just for the car, but I would still have to deal with the gas, which would be lower than a Lancer, but not by that much. So I figured 150-200$ of gas a month instead of the 200-300. So that would mean, getting a new car would still cost mebetween 650 - 800$ a month. Getting an Electric Car with the Subventions would cost about the same (700-800$ a month), but electricity is dirt cheap here, so I would be spending on average about the same price for EV + Electricity than a ICE SUV + Gas.

Then I started thinking : "I kind of feel bad driving 114km a day on a gas engine, in a SUV by myself." I want it to be a planet for my kids and my kid's kids to enjoy later So I thought if I go SUV, I want to go full electric.

That was mid 2019. I was looking around and basically the only options available was the Tesla Y and Ford that was announcing their Mustang Mach E very soon.

When I saw the unveiling of the MachE, I already loved the look of the car and I was super happy that it was a 5 seater and people were saying there's plenty of space in the back (I was afraid because of the name that it wouldn't fit a family properl). So I put my money down on the car and reserved. I wated the Extended Range because I love going up north at friend's cottages that are about 350km away. I go there several times a year. And with our winters, I wanted 4x.

The salesman pretty much told me for 2,000$ more, I could get the FE instead of the Premium with the 2 Options, so I reserved one of those... Then time passed by and the Model Y came out. For months... MONTHS, I was debating getting the Model Y (if you'd ask my wife, she'd tell you I would change my mind every day if I was getting a Model Y or a MME). I eventually decided to go for a test drive with the Tesla Model Y and I didn't like my experience. The car felt good driving it, but nothing spectacular. The car was just way too simplistic for me with just that 1 screen controlling everything. When I sat in the car, I didn't feel I was sitting in a 70k+ car. That was just my opinion.

I came back home, thought it over again. I knew the ModelY had more storage and longer range, but by then the MachE interiors came out and I saw the font dash, so the standard buttons inside, but also had the big screen and I really liked the exterior of the car. It just looked so much better to me.

That's when I knew I was going to keep waiting for the MME. And I've been happy, up until now with my choice. Reading online all the QC issues, the lack of heating in the cabin from the new heat pump (which is important here).. So yeah, here I am, 2 weeks away from suposedly getting my car Super happy and excited, happy to see many people are giving it car of the year, lots of people talking good thing about it.

I saw the unveiling of the Ariya and it didn't look as fancy as the MME, and the cargo looked to be very small... I followed the ID.4 to see as well, but it didn't strike me either. The interior is more like an average car, but not as fancy as the MME's.

Sorry for the big post, but you wanted to know

 

[Dr. J]

Depends upon the person and their circumstances. I did not do any comparisons with an ICE vehicle, for example, because I wasn't looking for an ICE vehicle. I had certain criteria I needed to be met in a BEV. That's all I was looking for beyond the intangibles.

If someone is simply looking for a new car and don't particularly care which vehicle that is, I can understand the calculations. But in that case, I'd expect the same financial calculation to be made between differing ICE vehicles as well.

You're right, but there wouldn't be much comparison within a class because they'll all have similar mpg (Within a few mpg) and the prices won't differ that much - at that point it would come down to qualitative things like style, where things are located, layout, etc etc. Here I am trying to bridge a ~ $15k gap with a ~ 2 cent per mile operating difference.

 

[Jim_I]

If you really want to have a good PBP on a car, then buy a three year old vehicle off of a lease. Check the Car-Fax report to make sure it has not been in any major accidents and has had regular maintenance. That is your best deal financially.

But I have been driving electric vehicles since 2011. I bought and still have my 2012 Volt, and it is as much fun now as the day I bought it. I also leased a 2015 Ford C-Max Energi and then a 2017 Chevy Bolt. The Bolt gets turned in next week. I can say that I will NEVER drive a gasoline vehicle again. And the Ford Mach-E is not going to be leased. It is the car I want to buy. And I will keep it for a long time. That is how you really make out on owning a car, IMHO.

The Volt will be traded on on the Mach-E.

Jim

 

[jhalkias]

Acceleration - neato factor but basically unusable. I doubt very many EV owners are headed to the track every weekend. For that matter I never really understood the obsession with HP for street cars - it's like buying some $70k truck when you have zero intention to ever use it as such.

Low center of gravity - Again, track thing. I've owned a MINI Cooper in the past, btw. Are you doing some super tight corners on an offramp or something?

Interior noise - not aware this is a huge deal?

Fuels in your garage rather than at a gas station. - mildly attractive for me, but also a detriment (but that's an EV thing.... meaning refueling away from home requires a bit of planning)

Frunk - but smaller rear end. I don't see the Frunk here really being of much use, frankly. Probably store some tow straps or something there. Who all is going tailgating with this to use it as a cooler?

Lower emissions - could care less

Power available for appliances (some models) - easy bolt on to any car (in fact I have a few inverters at home right now)

Tax credits - already included in PBP calcs. As I said in my state there are ZERO state or utility incentives for this, which is a shame

HOV access (some jurisdictions) - doesn't apply to me

Renewable fuel vs limited - don't care

It really doesn't sound like you are interested in the Mach E, or any BEV for that matter. Most of us here hate the Tesla Fan Boy culture too, and try not to stray that way.

A LOT of us here though do care about emissions and the environment. Based on the above, I think you would be better off with a luxury ICE vehicle rather than spend this cash on the ME.

 

[Dr. J]

Here's my situation:

I drive to work on a daily basis (well.. before COVID, been WFH for the last year). My family has also gotten bigger. I have 2 kids now. My car was 10 years old and it was a sports car (Lancer Ralliart 2.0 Turbo). My work is about 57km from home. So back and forth, that's 114km a day / 5 days a week. I would have to gas 1 - 2 times a week if I would travel on the week-ends to see family home etc.. The car required to have Super in it, so it would cost me about 50-60$ everytime I gassed (In Canadian Dollars). Since it was 1-2 times a week. I would spend on average between 200 - 300$ a month on gas alone for travel.

Because of the family getting bigger, I was looking at a small SUV. I started looking at Honda CR-Vs, Toyota Rav4, etc.. Buying one of those cars would still come around 500-600$ a month just for the car, but I would still have to deal with the gas, which would be lower than a Lancer, but not by that much. So I figured 150-200$ of gas a month instead of the 200-300. So that would mean, getting a new car would still cost mebetween 650 - 800$ a month. Getting an Electric Car with the Subventions would cost about the same (700-800$ a month), but electricity is dirt cheap here, so I would be spending on average about the same price for EV + Electricity than a ICE SUV + Gas.

Then I started thinking : "I kind of feel bad driving 114km a day on a gas engine, in a SUV by myself." I want it to be a planet for my kids and my kid's kids to enjoy later So I thought if I go SUV, I want to go full electric.

That was mid 2019. I was looking around and basically the only options available was the Tesla Y and Ford that was announcing their Mustang Mach E very soon.

When I saw the unveiling of the MachE, I already loved the look of the car and I was super happy that it was a 5 seater and people were saying there's plenty of space in the back (I was afraid because of the name that it wouldn't fit a family properl). So I put my money down on the car and reserved. I wated the Extended Range because I love going up north at friend's cottages that are about 350km away. I go there several times a year. And with our winters, I wanted 4x.

The salesman pretty much told me for 2,000$ more, I could get the FE instead of the Premium with the 2 Options, so I reserved one of those... Then time passed by and the Model Y came out. For months... MONTHS, I was debating getting the Model Y (if you'd ask my wife, she'd tell you I would change my mind every day if I was getting a Model Y or a MME). I eventually decided to go for a test drive with the Tesla Model Y and I didn't like my experience. The car felt good driving it, but nothing spectacular. The car was just way too simplistic for me with just that 1 screen controlling everything. When I sat in the car, I didn't feel I was sitting in a 70k+ car. That was just my opinion.

I came back home, thought it over again. I knew the ModelY had more storage and longer range, but by then the MachE interiors came out and I saw the font dash, so the standard buttons inside, but also had the big screen and I really liked the exterior of the car. It just looked so much better to me.

That's when I knew I was going to keep waiting for the MME. And I've been happy, up until now with my choice. Reading online all the QC issues, the lack of heating in the cabin from the new heat pump (which is important here).. So yeah, here I am, 2 weeks away from suposedly getting my car Super happy and excited, happy to see many people are giving it car of the year, lots of people talking good thing about it.

I saw the unveiling of the Ariya and it didn't look as fancy as the MME, and the cargo looked to be very small... I followed the ID.4 to see as well, but it didn't strike me either. The interior is more like an average car, but not as fancy as the MME's.

Sorry for the big post, but you wanted to know

Thanks for being honest. As I said I only really discovered this a week or 2 ago, in discussions about the ID.4 and MY, etc - I'm not one of the many of you that have been waiting months for this (I'm a shop-when-I-need-to kind of person, for cars at least). I can certainly see the argument if your electricity is cheap and gas expensive, after all that's the main driver behind the PBP, besides the capital cost difference, which is also highly affected by tax incentives.

Regarding your heat pump comment -care to elaborate?

 

[BadgerGreg]

I've calculated my per-mile cost of ownership for my previous and current cars (2007 BMW 328xi and 2014 BMW 328d, respectively), both purchased Certified Pre-Owned. I drove the 2007 to 180,000 miles and my current 2014 328d has 82,000 miles, and I'll be trading it in or selling it when I get my MME in April.

My per-mile cost for the 2007 BMW was about $0.39, and that includes everything (depreciation, O&M, premium fuel). My 2014 will end up around $0.40/mile (more depreciation but much lower fuel costs, due to the fantastic mileage from the diesel engine). TBH, I'm going to miss the 650-mile highway range of the diesel, but I'm willing to give that up for the idea of a BEV.

The MME will put me around $0.40/mile, assuming I hold on to it for six years and drive 150,000 miles (also accounting for the $7,500 federal tax credit). When I went through this calculation, I was excited that the MME wouldn't increase my current cost of ownership; that, and I get a new car that is fun to drive AND doesn't have any tailpipe emissions.

SO, my decision was based on the assumption that I can go 'green' without increasing my cost of ownership. With my current BMW coming off its covered maintenance period, I'm also excited about avoiding the dreaded BMW 100,000-mile service milestones ($$$$$$$) and owning a new car with much lower maintenance costs. The Tesla Model Y was close to meeting this criteria, but the tax credit put the MME over the edge for me. Also, I live in Metro Detroit, my father-in-law is a Ford retiree (Z Plan!), and I wanted to reward Ford for making this bold leap.

Sponsored