What do you think is the chance of 150k+ miles?

[RickMachE]

Hi Rick,

Thanks for your contribution. Maybe 15 percent less range is not a significant number to you. I don’t wish to split hairs on what constitutes “significant”.

As for the battery capacity measurement, I would assume the GOM would have nothing to do with it.
Are we speaking of kw measured via a car scanner app at full charge? Because you are staying the stale of health isn’t the measurement to judge this. Sorry for the ignorance

Read your warranty.

High Voltage Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity Coverage

As is the case with all batteries, the high voltage lithium-ion
battery capacity will decrease over time and with use. While
gradual capacity loss with time and use is considered normal
wear and tear, Ford Motor Company warrants the high voltage
battery against excessive capacity loss for a period of
8 years/100,000 miles, whichever comes first. If an authorized
EV Certified Ford Dealer determines that the battery capacity is
less than 70 percent of the high voltage battery’s beginning of life
capacity, or less than 65 percent for vehicles in cutaway or
chassis cab configuration, this level of capacity loss is considered
excessive. The measurement method used to determine the high
voltage battery capacity, and the decision of whether to repair,
replace, or provide reconditioned or remanufactured parts, and
the condition of any such replaced, reconditioned or
remanufactured parts, are at the sole discretion of Ford Motor
Company. During the High Voltage Battery Capacity Coverage
period, Ford Motor Company will cover the necessary component
repair or replacement to correct this excessive capacity loss,
when performed by an EV Certified Ford dealership. This
coverage is in addition to the high voltage battery assembly’s
limited warranty for defects in materials or workmanship. If a
warranty repair requires replacement of the high voltage battery
assembly, or one of its components, it may be replaced with a
new, factory remanufactured, or factory refurbished component,
at Ford’s discretion. Refurbished battery components selected
for your vehicle will align with your vehicle’s age, and mileage.
NOTE: The battery capacity degradation rate will vary based on
various factors, including environmental conditions, and will also
be affected by the way in which the vehicle is used. Following the
recommendations in the Preserving Your High Voltage Battery
section of the Owner’s Manual may help lower the rate of
capacity degradation and optimize battery life.

Sponsored

 

[Blue highway]

150k miles, from a battery and motor perspective, yes.

Solid State batteries will cause a shift once they are used due to their charge speed and overall improvement in range for hot and cold temperatures.

Once they are placed in vehicles, the lithium ion battery powered EVs will lose their value.

I would expect companies to offer conversions from Lithium to Solid State batteries as an option for EVs where the conversions are viable.

Except that there are no factories that build solid state batteries. Those have to be built first, (which takes a few years) and they will go in new cars at a premium initially (which will take a few more years). And so far nobody can make these deliver on the promise of a reasonable number of cycles... This is why they are perpetually 10 years away.

A much less sexy but more likely state of affairs is that LFP batteries are the norm because current factories can make them and they cost a lot less than alternatives.

Even less sexy is the fact that there will be lots of serviceable batteries on the second hand market. We will do the same thing with EV batteries as we do with Prius batteries. Instead of buying a new one when our old one dies, we buy a "serviced" one for 20% the cost of a new one.

we will see.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

A much less sexy but more likely state of affairs is that LFP batteries are the norm because current factories can make them and they cost a lot less than alternatives.

Even less sexy is the fact that there will be lots of serviceable batteries on the second hand market. We will do the same thing with EV batteries as we do with Prius batteries. Instead of buying a new one when our old one dies, we buy a "serviced" one for 20% the cost of a new one.

we will see.

Yes, this. There are already piles of the LGX E71A cells on the used market, mostly from the Chevy battery problems.

They are sold as-is, but someone will find a niche of putting together replacement batteries for the Mustang...Once it becomes profitable.

 

[RedOctobrrr]

What do you all think or theorize would be possible for replacement batteries in say... 2040 when these cars are reaching 20 years, and getting long range replacements in the same sized battery? Say replacing a standard range with something higher capacity than the current long range? Say 120kw batteries within the same size package, or swapping in a long range battery into a standard range VIN?

I would hope in 15-20 years we could go beyond 100, 120, or even 140kw for a replacement in our current 75-100-ish kw batteries.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

What do you all think or theorize would be possible for replacement batteries in say... 2040 when these cars are reaching 20 years, and getting long range replacements in the same sized battery? Say replacing a standard range with something higher capacity than the current long range? Say 120kw batteries within the same size package, or swapping in a long range battery into a standard range VIN?

I would hope in 15-20 years we could go beyond 100, 120, or even 140kw for a replacement in our current 75-100-ish kw batteries.

I expect it will happen. But only if energy density per cell is increased. Otherwise there will be no space to put the new cells. By then, some people will sacrifice some of their frunk space for more cells, some people will just go with a drop-in replacement with similar or only slightly larger capacity.

As an existing example: The Gen-1 Prius battery can be replaced with Gen-3 cells. For around $1k to $1.5k hardware cost. Note that they aren't swapping from NiMh to Lithium; they're staying with the same chemistry but upgrading to newer, better cells. Upgrading between chemistries would require new hardware and software.

https://www.falconhybrid.com/Toyota-Prius-Hybrid-Battery-for-Generation-1-p/priusg1w3.htm

We'll see the same kinds of things happening with all EVs as time marches on.

 

[AZBill]

I have a Bolt with 121K miles, still working fine. I did get my battery replaced at 103K miles, but at that point it had about 9% loss of capacity.

 

[dtbaker61]

My battery SoH has lost 7% after 23k miles and 14 months of use. If it keeps declining at this pace, my car will reach 70% prior to 100k miles. And then I will ask Ford for a new battery.

where exactly can you see the StateOfHealth, which is presumabkly the number Ford would look at in any future Warranty claim ?

 

[BigMach-E]

Read your warranty.

High Voltage Lithium-Ion Battery Capacity Coverage

As is the case with all batteries, the high voltage lithium-ion
battery capacity will decrease over time and with use. While
gradual capacity loss with time and use is considered normal
wear and tear, Ford Motor Company warrants the high voltage
battery against excessive capacity loss for a period of
8 years/100,000 miles, whichever comes first. If an authorized
EV Certified Ford Dealer determines that the battery capacity is
less than 70 percent of the high voltage battery’s beginning of life
capacity, or less than 65 percent for vehicles in cutaway or
chassis cab configuration, this level of capacity loss is considered
excessive. The measurement method used to determine the high
voltage battery capacity, and the decision of whether to repair,
replace, or provide reconditioned or remanufactured parts, and
the condition of any such replaced, reconditioned or
remanufactured parts, are at the sole discretion of Ford Motor
Company. During the High Voltage Battery Capacity Coverage
period, Ford Motor Company will cover the necessary component
repair or replacement to correct this excessive capacity loss,
when performed by an EV Certified Ford dealership. This
coverage is in addition to the high voltage battery assembly’s
limited warranty for defects in materials or workmanship. If a
warranty repair requires replacement of the high voltage battery
assembly, or one of its components, it may be replaced with a
new, factory remanufactured, or factory refurbished component,
at Ford’s discretion. Refurbished battery components selected
for your vehicle will align with your vehicle’s age, and mileage.
NOTE: The battery capacity degradation rate will vary based on
various factors, including environmental conditions, and will also
be affected by the way in which the vehicle is used. Following the
recommendations in the Preserving Your High Voltage Battery
section of the Owner’s Manual may help lower the rate of
capacity degradation and optimize battery life.

Thanks for that. So that totally means that the battery capacity warranty is useless and smoke and mirrors. Got it.

 

[Domainman]

The technology is not the same but I have a 2013 Ford Cmax Energi and it has been charged almost every day since we purchased it and it has 140,820 miles on it and never had a battery issue. Like I said not the same but ford does know the space somewhat. Be interesting to hear what focus EV owns say.

 

[tfitzgex]

Depends how you treat the battery. From a battery life standpoint, 300K miles is achievable from a charge cycle perspective. The top and bottom buffers are your friend.

It's also possible to "kill" the battery in 100K miles (only DCFC, discharge to single digits, regularly leave the car in temps >100 degrees F).

Lots of techie posts on this
I am buying a house soon so, less DCFC for sure in my future but as of right now, it is only DCFC. I drive for lyft on the side, I imagine they took 'fleet vehicles' in to account. The taxis in NYC, and the Police cars are not going to use Level 2 during the day.

 

[Humblest]

May or may not be relevant. I drove a 2008 Escape HEV for 14 years, 175K miles. Had the battery checked a few months before I gave the vehicle to a family member (who is still driving it), it had degraded by about 50%. That was not a plug-in, effect of the degradation for that vehicle was probably about 5% reduction in MPG.

For full electric a 50% battery degradation would be about a 50% range reduction. For my ER MME in SoCal it would still be quite usable as a commuter car. Day trips (e.g. OC to San Diego) would require recharging near the destination.

 

[RickMachE]

Thanks for that. So that totally means that the battery capacity warranty is useless and smoke and mirrors. Got it.

Not quite.

 

[Blue highway]

Lots of techie posts on this
I am buying a house soon so, less DCFC for sure in my future but as of right now, it is only DCFC. I drive for lyft on the side, I imagine they took 'fleet vehicles' in to account. The taxis in NYC, and the Police cars are not going to use Level 2 during the day.

Congrats on getting the house

Ford clearly took "daily" DCFC into account... is in evidence in the max charge rate an the flat part of the curve. but like most things in engineering it's a tradeoff.... that is why it peaks at "only" 1.5C and then falls off to something less than 1C. Less than 1C is not really fast charging. So... for an ER car, less than 100kW charging (1C) is relatively gentle in the world of lithium batteries.

When I say it's a balance, i mean that the DCFC curve is determined by engineers taking a lot of things into account and they are fairly conservative in the MME. Faster charging = more heat, more dendrites, etc.... but it's a curve, not black and white.

for example,
IF we only DCFC once every 6 months (at goldilocks temps, between 10-80%) Engineers might have set the the peak charging spike to 3C and the flat part of the charge curve might have been 1C...

IF we DCFC every day at higher or lower than goldilocks temps Engineers would have set the spike and flat part of curve a little lower than they did.

It's a trade off. Charge time vs battery longevity.

DCFC is taken into account, that doesn't mean there aren't some consequences to doing that.

 

[Chris-MMEX_GT500]

Except that there are no factories that build solid state batteries. Those have to be built first, (which takes a few years) and they will go in new cars at a premium initially (which will take a few more years). And so far nobody can make these deliver on the promise of a reasonable number of cycles... This is why they are perpetually 10 years away.

A much less sexy but more likely state of affairs is that LFP batteries are the norm because current factories can make them and they cost a lot less than alternatives.

Even less sexy is the fact that there will be lots of serviceable batteries on the second hand market. We will do the same thing with EV batteries as we do with Prius batteries. Instead of buying a new one when our old one dies, we buy a "serviced" one for 20% the cost of a new one.

we will see.

Good points, Toyota and VW are supposedly in the development of solid-state batteries. Of course, nobody has any type of exact timeline, so as you said, it could be 10 years before we see solid-state batteries begin to appear in vehicles.

The current batteries are the start, it will be interesting to see what the evolution is when it comes to battery technology. Seems that each technology has its advantages and disadvantages.

 

[SpaceEVDriver]

Congrats on getting the house

Ford clearly took "daily" DCFC into account... is in evidence in the max charge rate an the flat part of the curve. but like most things in engineering it's a tradeoff.... that is why it peaks at "only" 1.5C and then falls off to something less than 1C. Less than 1C is not really fast charging. So... for an ER car, less than 100kW charging (1C) is relatively gentle in the world of lithium batteries.

<snip>

IF we DCFC every day at higher or lower than goldilocks temps Engineers would have set the spike and flat part of curve a little lower than they did.

It's a trade off. Charge time vs battery longevity.

DCFC is taken into account, that doesn't mean there aren't some consequences to doing that.

Yes to all of this.

DCFC for the Mustang is not a "will destroy your battery" prospect. The curve for 1C still gives around 900 charge/discharge cycles. And that assumes that one is discharging at 1C as well as charging at 1C, which would mean something like an average speed of about 91-99 mph for 900 charge/discharge cycles. (This assumes you get 1 mi/kWh at 91-99 mph--I don't drive at that speed so have no idea how to get as low as 1 mi/kWh).

And that should still give you 82,000 miles on the battery.

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