This bothers me...

SJ_Okay

Well-Known Member
First Name
Scott
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Threads
20
Messages
824
Reaction score
943
Location
UK
Vehicles
AWD ER Mach-E
Occupation
Film and Music Producer
Country flag
I think you’re wrong. I don’t think anyone is expecting to have to recycle their entire car when the battery needs replacing, nor do I expect they will need to. It’s never going to be this huge re-build you’re predicting. It still needs to communicate with the same charge points we’ve invested billions in, therefore it still needs communicate with cars... which thanks to OTA should still be current. As long as batteries continue to store and supply electricity, regardless of how they advance, they should still be compatible with our cars. OEMs are not going to drastically change the skateboard style chassis’s they’ve designed and developed for specific models of cars, for obvious cost reasons, so battery manufacturers will ensure new battery tech works within those frames. So I really don’t see why it’s going to be such an overhaul/rebuild to change a battery. It might be expensive, but it’ll be significantly less than a brand new car of equivalent value. EVs will be upgradable... hugely, and it’s aftermarket is going to be awesome. I guess we both have different opinions on the matter, so I’m going to avoid going in circles here with you, as we are both just speculating based on our opinions.
Sponsored

 

silverelan

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 25, 2019
Threads
117
Messages
3,018
Reaction score
4,295
Location
Seattle
Vehicles
2021 Mustang Mach-E GT
Country flag
The Bolt EV is probably a good example of what we might see of incidental battery improvement over time.

For 2020, the Bolt EV went to 66kWh from 2017-2019 60kWh with absolutely zero change in the pack/modules/cell form factors. It was simply greater energy density in the cells that LG Chem supplied that GM was able to take advantage of.
 

Gilles

Well-Known Member
First Name
Gilles
Joined
Mar 17, 2020
Threads
0
Messages
98
Reaction score
63
Location
Toronto, Canada
Vehicles
2016 Volt with Mach-e on order
Country flag
"when new cars routinely get 400 miles a charge or can charge in 5 minutes, name your tech. "
400 miles is not a problem but it won't charge in 5 minutes. To get 400 miles, you need a battery of about 140kwh. To charge in 5 minutes you would need 144x20= 2880 kW or almost 3 megawatts of power.
 

timbop

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Jan 3, 2020
Threads
63
Messages
6,729
Reaction score
13,758
Location
New Jersey
Vehicles
Solar powered 2021 MME ER RWD & 2022 Corsair PHEV
Occupation
Software Engineer
Country flag
"when new cars routinely get 400 miles a charge or can charge in 5 minutes, name your tech. "
400 miles is not a problem but it won't charge in 5 minutes. To get 400 miles, you need a battery of about 140kwh. To charge in 5 minutes you would need 144x20= 2880 kW or almost 3 megawatts of power.
Or a bolt of lightning, Marty!
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
TimCO
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Threads
54
Messages
9,297
Reaction score
10,812
Location
Colorado, USA
Vehicles
2021 Mustang Mach-E FE, 2023 Bronco Sport OB
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
"when new cars routinely get 400 miles a charge or can charge in 5 minutes, name your tech. "
400 miles is not a problem but it won't charge in 5 minutes. To get 400 miles, you need a battery of about 140kwh. To charge in 5 minutes you would need 144x20= 2880 kW or almost 3 megawatts of power.
Exactly. That's likely to remain the big barrier to BEVs making more than only partial market penetration -- the slow charging. They're great for those that can charge overnight at home and almost never need to charge at retail stations. But most people simple aren't gonna put up with wasting 15-45 minutes like that on a frequent basis.

It's rather counter-intuitive -- we would normally expect "fast" L3 charging to be more important than slow L2 charging. But it's really the other way around, because both are still way too slow to compete with 2 minute gas refueling. Thus, the really important one is the one where you just leave the car parked while you're off doing other normal things (like sleeping, or at work).
 


SJ_Okay

Well-Known Member
First Name
Scott
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Threads
20
Messages
824
Reaction score
943
Location
UK
Vehicles
AWD ER Mach-E
Occupation
Film and Music Producer
Country flag
But most people simple aren't gonna put up with wasting 15-45 minutes like that on a frequent basis.
I tend to disagree about it being an issue for most people. I’m inclined to think the opposite. I agree some people won’t be happy with the charge times, but for the majority of people who drive around 30miles or less a day, it’s a small lifestyle adjustment and the upsides should should more than outweigh the odd 45min charge, maybe once a week or even once a fortnight for those really low mile drivers. There is a lot you can do in 45min and if you make a routine, it could actually be a really positive experience.
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
TimCO
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Threads
54
Messages
9,297
Reaction score
10,812
Location
Colorado, USA
Vehicles
2021 Mustang Mach-E FE, 2023 Bronco Sport OB
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
I tend to disagree about it being an issue for most people. I’m inclined to think the opposite. I agree some people won’t be happy with the charge times, but for the majority of people who drive around 30miles or less a day, it’s a small lifestyle adjustment and the upsides should should more than outweigh the odd 45min charge, maybe once a week or even once a fortnight for those really low mile drivers. There is a lot you can do in 45min and if you make a routine, it could actually be a really positive experience.
I think some will be willing to make that sacrifice of convenience (if they don't have easy home/work L2 charging), but I really think that percentage is well under 50% (probably under 25%) when they compare it to a 2 minute full-tank gas refuel.

It's not just a matter of limited options for "what is there to do next door to your charging station" (although that's certainly a big issue too). It's that you're stuck having to allocate time to do it every handful of days, and to monitor your car remotely while you leave it, and to have to get back to it at the right time. That's just a lot of wasted time and annoyance compared to the 2 minute gas refuel everyone is already used to.

But a lot of people have homes and garages. That will enable a significant slice of BEV market share. The next big tier IMO will be from secure/guaranteed L2 chargers going in for multi-unit tenants (apartments/condos) and employee workplaces. But here's a key part: They need to be secure and guaranteed so people know 100% they can get to it when they need it, and can safely leave their car all night (or work shift) without having to worry about it, or don't have to run out and move it. If it's just a charger that's open to anyone anytime, that's a big problem. People need to be able to trust they can get it when they need it, otherwise they'll just go with ICE instead.
 
Last edited:

ChasingCoral

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mark
Joined
Feb 3, 2020
Threads
375
Messages
12,402
Reaction score
24,516
Location
Maryland
Vehicles
GB E4X FE, Leaf, Tacoma, F-150 Lightning ordered
Occupation
Retired oceanographer
Country flag
I think some will be willing to make that sacrifice of convenience (if they don't have easy home/work L2 charging), but I really think that percentage is well under 50% (probably under 25%) when they compare it to a 2 minute full-tank gas refuel.

It's not just a matter of limited options for "what is there to do next door to your charging station" (although that's certainly a big issue too). It's that you're stuck having to allocate time to do it every handful of days, and to monitor your car remotely while you leave it, and to have to get back to it at the right time. That's just a lot of wasted time and annoyance compared to the 2 minute gas refuel everyone is already used to.

But a lot of people have homes and garages. That will enable a significant slice of BEV market share. The next big tier IMO will be from secure/guaranteed L2 chargers going in for multi-unit tenants (apartments/condos) and employee workplaces. But here's a key part: They need to be secure and guaranteed so people know 100% they can get to it when they need it, and can safely leave their car all night (or work shift) without having to worry about it, or don't have to run out and move it. If it's just a charger that's open to anyone anytime, that's a big problem. People need to be able to trust they can get it when they need it, otherwise they'll just go with ICE instead.
Don’t forget the workplace chargers. We have an L2 two buildings down from my office. On days where I need it I just park in that lot, plug in, and either let it fully charge the Leaf or charging remotely from my office. I rarely need it but it’s handy when I do.
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
TimCO
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Threads
54
Messages
9,297
Reaction score
10,812
Location
Colorado, USA
Vehicles
2021 Mustang Mach-E FE, 2023 Bronco Sport OB
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
Don’t forget the workplace chargers. We have an L2 two buildings down from my office. On days where I need it I just park in that lot, plug in, and either let it fully charge the Leaf or charging remotely from my office. I rarely need it but it’s handy when I do.
I mentioned those ("employee workplaces"). For someone that can't charge overnight at home, that can be a big enabler making it worthwhile to consider a BEV.

But without secure, dependable home or work "park it and forget it" charging like that, no way I'd buy a BEV if I had to frequently sit through L3 charging at a retail station. 8-12 hours of park it and forget it is way better than 30-40 minutes of active babysitting.
 

SJ_Okay

Well-Known Member
First Name
Scott
Joined
Feb 25, 2020
Threads
20
Messages
824
Reaction score
943
Location
UK
Vehicles
AWD ER Mach-E
Occupation
Film and Music Producer
Country flag
It's that you're stuck having to allocate time to do it every handful of days, and to monitor your car remotely while you leave it, and to have to get back to it at the right time. That's just a lot of wasted time and annoyance compared to the 2 minute gas refuel everyone is already used to.
I'm only talking about people who can't charge at home. When I say you can do a lot in 45 min, I'm also only talking 45min sat in the car waiting for the charge, not getting out and about and having to get back in 45min. From a social sciences perspective, it's a bit like going to the toilet. Workaholics will keep working, others will use it as an escape from any huge number of things. That space you have to frequent, but the space where you are alone (unless you have a toddler) to think, reflect, surf the web, troll tesla fanboys on facebook, play solitaire, e-mail your accountant, sell your ex's stuff on e-bay, call a friend for a catch up (from your car, obviously although I'm not ashamed to admit I've called good friends mid squat). I think a lot of people would welcome the escape a 45min charge offers. I can see husbands and wives with kids vying for the opportunity to take the car off to be charged. In fact, I'd even go so far as to say, if marketed correctly using both data and social science, it could be a great selling point.
 
  • Like
Reactions: abr

jhalkias

Well-Known Member
First Name
John
Joined
Mar 3, 2020
Threads
122
Messages
2,482
Reaction score
4,953
Location
Ohio
Vehicles
'21 RR ME FE, '22 Corsair GT, '22 Lightning Lariat
Occupation
Benefit Fund Administrator
Country flag
Having a garage and driving daily for work about 90 miles roundtrip, I will rarely need to charge away from home. But when I do - in the US that will mean road trips on vacation . . . it would be nice if places where these are located look at them as an opportunity. Have a nice place to have lunch while my car charges, or a hotel with chargers on property - that will be my choice for my stop. I am really hoping there will be enough infrastructure in a year or two to take the MME on real road trips.
 

timbop

Well-Known Member
First Name
Tim
Joined
Jan 3, 2020
Threads
63
Messages
6,729
Reaction score
13,758
Location
New Jersey
Vehicles
Solar powered 2021 MME ER RWD & 2022 Corsair PHEV
Occupation
Software Engineer
Country flag
Having a garage and driving daily for work about 90 miles roundtrip, I will rarely need to charge away from home. But when I do - in the US that will mean road trips on vacation . . . it would be nice if places where these are located look at them as an opportunity. Have a nice place to have lunch while my car charges, or a hotel with chargers on property - that will be my choice for my stop. I am really hoping there will be enough infrastructure in a year or two to take the MME on real road trips.
It really does depend on where you go, so I suggest using abetterrouteplanner.com to map out a few hypothetical trips you might take. I've used it to map out several trips that we might take, and then using abrp to launch google maps looked for nearby eateries and hotels. I have found that in the midatlantic a lot of walmarts have EA chargers, and often those are in a congested enough area to have strip malls with decent food, as well as lodging nearby for really long drives.
 

dbsb3233

Well-Known Member
First Name
TimCO
Joined
Dec 30, 2019
Threads
54
Messages
9,297
Reaction score
10,812
Location
Colorado, USA
Vehicles
2021 Mustang Mach-E FE, 2023 Bronco Sport OB
Occupation
Retired
Country flag
I'm only talking about people who can't charge at home. When I say you can do a lot in 45 min, I'm also only talking 45min sat in the car waiting for the charge, not getting out and about and having to get back in 45min. From a social sciences perspective, it's a bit like going to the toilet. Workaholics will keep working, others will use it as an escape from any huge number of things. That space you have to frequent, but the space where you are alone (unless you have a toddler) to think, reflect, surf the web, troll tesla fanboys on facebook, play solitaire, e-mail your accountant, sell your ex's stuff on e-bay, call a friend for a catch up (from your car, obviously although I'm not ashamed to admit I've called good friends mid squat). I think a lot of people would welcome the escape a 45min charge offers. I can see husbands and wives with kids vying for the opportunity to take the car off to be charged. In fact, I'd even go so far as to say, if marketed correctly using both data and social science, it could be a great selling point.
While there will always be some willing to do that, I really think that % is quite small. Few people will look at it as an "opportunity" to go sit in their car for 30-40 minutes at a refueling station every 4-8 days. Just like I don't think the vast majority of people look at sitting 4th deep at the car wash is an "opportunity". The vast majority will look at it as an annoying waste of time. Especially having to do it on a routine basis (like 40-80 times a year).

That doesn't mean many (most) people don't waste time, of course. But it's a different thing doing it whenever you want to vs it being forced on then because they're stuck waiting on something. Nobody likes being stuck waiting, whether it be at the doctor's office, or at a car wash, or for refueling their car.

That's why one of the selling points of BEVs (for people that can charge at home) is that "You don't have to go to the gas stations anymore!". That's a nice extra perk. And that's talking about a 2-minute gas refuel. If it's considered a negative to have to go do a 2-minute refuel, it's certainly a way bigger negative to have to do 30-minute ones.
Sponsored

 
 




Top